Three Types of Risks资料文件与下载

Risk Assessments

风险评估

In preparing for the pre-feasibility and detailed feasibility studies, the initiating agency should also assess the potential risks involved in undertaking the project.  There are generally three types of risks.在准备对前期可行性和细节可行性进行研究的阶段，发起机构也应评估在承接项目中潜在的风险。风险通常有三种类型。

First, there are economic risks involved in using land readjustment to facilitate land development and regeneration.  These economic risks come from the uncertainty of the real estate market.  Like all other markets, property and land prices fluctuate.  If a project is initiated at a time of boom but ends when the market slows down, the projection of using land reserves to raise funds to recover a portion of the project costs may not materialize.  If this situation occurs, participating landowners may have to pay additional money to the initiating agency if one of the original objectives is to self-finance part of the project costs.  If landowners could not make the payment, both the national and local governments may be liable for covering any shortfall.  In other words, all key stakeholders could be at risk of losing money if the prediction of the property market cycle is incorrect.

首先，在利用土地整备促进土地开发和再利用中存在经济风险。这些经济风险来自房地产市场的不确定性。与其他市场相似，房产和土地价格会波动。如果在市场繁荣时期引进一个项目，但是在市场放缓的时候结束，利用土地储备筹集资金来收回部分项目成本的预测可能不能实现。如果发生这种情况，如果起初的目标是部分项目成本自筹资金，那么参与的土地所有者可能不得不向开发机构支付额外的费用。如果土地所有者不能支付，国家政府和当地政府可能有责任来补足短缺资金。也就是说，如果对资产市场周期预测不准确，所有主要利益相关者要承担经济损失的风险。

Second, there are also political risks involved in undertaking land readjustment projects.  If  for various reasons the project fails, leaders of the public agencies that promote, design, and implement the project could face public criticisms.  This risk is particularly prominent when initiators are only experimenting with the technique.  That said, this high risk could also bring a huge reward because the public agency could become a pioneer in adopting land readjustment in its country if the project succeeds.  Public agencies in other cities will follow its lead.

第二 在进行土地整备项目中也涉及政治风险。如果项目由于各种原因失败，公共部门的领导在推动、设计和实施项目时可能面临公众批评。当发起者只是将其作为技术性试点时，这种风险尤其突出。

Another political risk is the loss of government commitment to the long-term project due to a regime change, promotion, or retirement.  The central government and/or local jurisdictions may hold a reelection, thereby changing leaderships that may not support the idea of land readjustment.  Because land readjustment projects normally take a long time, they could outlive supporting local officials who may be promoted to a higher position or go into retirement.

另一种政治风险是由于权力更迭，当权者晋升或退休，长期项目失去政府承诺的支持。 中央政府和/或地区政府可能举行换届选举，从而更换的领导人可能不支持土地整备的建议，他们可能比那些支持者掌权的时间更长，而那些本来支持地方政府的人可能得到了升迁或者已经退休。

 Third, land readjustment entails social risks.  The re-parceling of land sites could create disputes over property boundaries between neighbors.  There needs to be a mechanism to resolve this potential problem. 

第三 土地整备会带来社会风险 。土地的重新划分可能在相邻的资产边界产生争议。需要有一种机制来解决此种潜在问题。

Furthermore, poor households or small landowners and occupants could be marginalized if the decision-making rules are primarily based on landownership instead of “one household, one vote.”

此外，如果决策法规首先基于土地所有权而不是“一户一票” 贫困家庭或者小土地所有者和使用者可能被边缘化。

Last, but not least, renters could be subjected to displacement if there is no well-designed policy to protect their rights and welfare.  All these potential social issues could add up to political challenges by the poor that could undermine the legitimacy of the project and the stability of the economy.

最后，如果没有设计完善的政策来保护他们的权利和福利，佃户可能被迫迁离。所有这些潜在社会问题可能增加来自贫困者的政治压力，这些贫困者能够破坏项目的合法性和经济的稳定性。