Video在线视频

大家好
Hello everyone

我是中南财经政法大学
I am a teacher of the School of Business Administration

工商管理学院老师魏永长
of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Wei Yongchang

2012年我毕业于华中科技大学
I graduated from Huazhong University of Science and Technology

系统工程专业
with a degree in systems engineering

获得工学博士学位
and obtained a doctorate in engineering in 2012

去年我在新加坡国立大学
Last year I was at the National University of Singapore

从事博士后研究工作
engaged in postdoctoral research

我的研究领域主要是数据资产评估
My research area is mainly data asset assessment

物流与供应链管理标准化
and Logistics and supply chain management standardization

俗话说工欲善其事
As the saying goes,workers want to do something good

必先利其器
must first sharpen its device

资产评估的基本的方法它是非常重要的
The basic method of asset valuation is very important

我主要跟大家介绍一下
I mainly introduce to you

企业价值评估的基本方法
the basic methods of enterprise value assessment

前面的老师已经跟大家介绍了
The former teacher has already introduced

互联网企业价值评估的基本原理
the basic principles of Internet enterprise value assessment

大家也了解了互联网企业它的一些特点
Everyone also understands some of the characteristics of Internet companies

那么这一章由我来介绍一下企业价值评估的基本的方法
In this chapter I will talk about the basic method of enterprise value assessment

这一章主要是由我、陈方宇老师、梅丽霞老师来跟大家讲解
This chapter is mainly explained by me,Chen Fangyu and Mei Lixia

这一章的内容主要包括六个部分
Mainly consists of six parts

首先我们会从总体上跟大家介绍企业价值评估的一般方法
First we will introduce the general method of enterprise value assessment

那我们会重点跟大家介绍相对估值法，也就是市场法
We will focus on the relative valuation method which is the market law

也有这个绝对估值法就是预期现金流折现法
And absolute valuation method which is expected cash flow discount method

除了这些方法以外
In addition to these methods,

还有一些辅助性的一些来自于其它学科的一些方法
there are some complementary methods from other disciplines

比如说我们会跟大家介绍蒙特卡洛仿真模拟
For example,we will introduce Monte Carlo simulation to everyone

梅丽霞老师也会跟大家介绍实物期权法
Teacher Mei Lixia will also introduce how the real option method

怎么用于企业价值的评估
can be used to evaluate the value of the company

讲完这些以后我们就会跟大家介绍面临这么多的方法
After this,we will introduce how we can choose effective methods

我们如何针对不同的互联网企业选择有效的方法
for different Internet companies when faced with multiple methods

企业价值评估的方法和其他资产的评估的方法
The approach to corporate value assessment is closely linked to

有紧密的联系
other asset valuation methods

都是建立在工程技术、统计学、会计学等
It is based on the technical methods of engineering statistics accounting

不同学科的技术方法的基础上
and other disciplines

结合企业自身特点形成的一整套方法体系
A set of method systems are formed by combining the characteristics of enterprises

但是它的区别在于什么呢？
But what are the differences between them?

就是说企业价值的评估
Enterprise value assessment must take into account

必须要考虑到企业本身的一些特点
some characteristics of the enterprise itself

比如说企业所处的生命周期
For example, the life cycle of an enterprise,

企业的经营管理的模式
the mode of business management,

企业所处的市场的环境
the environment of the market in which the enterprise is located

对应的国家的一些政策法规
corresponding national policies and regulations,

宏观的一些环境这也是非常重要的
and the macro environment are also very important

企业价值评估的方法主要有这么四大类方法
There are four main methods for enterprise value assessment

第一种方法就是预期现金流折现法
The first method is the expected discounted cash flow method

为什么这里叫预期现金流折现法而不是叫做收益法呢
Why is it called the discounted cash flow method not the income method

因为对于企业来说它的现金流能够更好的反映它的成长性
Because for the enterprise, cash flow can better reflect its growth

预期现金流折现法也刚好吻合了
The expected discounted cash flow method also coincides with

企业价值评估的特点
the characteristics of the enterprise value assessment

因为企业价值评估
Because in the enterprise value assessment,

我们重点是要看企业它的盈利能力
the focus is on the profitability of the company

所以这种方法是目前企业价值评估的主流的方法
So it is currently the mainstream method of enterprise value assessment

第二种方法就是相对估值法
The second method is the relative valuation method

也就是市场比较法
which is the market comparison method

市场比较法主要是通过寻找参照物进行类比分析
The market comparison method is to find the value of the assets

去评估待估资产的价值
to be assessed by looking for reference objects for analogy analysis

市场比较法有一个缺点
One disadvantage of market comparison methods is that

就是它会受到有效市场的限制
they are limited by effective markets

那么什么是有效市场
So what is an effective market

通俗的来讲
In general

当企业的市场价值与它的内在价值相吻合的时候
this market is effective when the market value of

我们说这个市场是有效的
the company matches its intrinsic value

但是往往来说市场总是会存在泡沫
But there will always be bubbles in the market

可能会存在投机的因素
and there may be speculative factors

市场的监管也可能没有那么健全
Also, market regulation may not be so good

这个是市场法遭受质疑的一些地方
There are where market law is being questioned

第三种方法我们把它叫做资产加和法
The third method is the asset addition method

资产加和法其实和单项资产的评估
The asset addition method is in fact closely related to

有紧密的联系
the evaluation of individual assets

它就是用传统的收益法、市场法、成本法
It uses the traditional income method market method and cost method

对一个企业的单项资产进行逐项评估
to evaluate individual assets of an enterprise item by item

比如说无形资产那么我们可以用收益法进行评估
For example, intangible assets can be assessed by the income method

房地产用市场法来进行评估
real estate is evaluated by the market method

最后进行加总得到这个企业的价值
and finally summed up to obtain the value of the enterprise

当时我们说互联网企业它往往处在一些成长阶段
Internet companies tend to be in the growth stage

我们很少用资产加和法来进行评估
and rarely use asset summation to evaluate

对于这种具有成长期企业的互联网企业
What method should an Internet company with growth

我们应该用什么方法来进行评估？
in the future use to evaluate?

我们后面会重点跟大家介绍实物期权法
The real option method will be highlighted later

因为对于创业型的一些企业
For some entrepreneurial companies

他们的收益具有高度的不确定性
their income is highly uncertain

他们的财务报表，财务状况，当前的财务状况并不一定很好
and their financial and financial status is not necessarily good

有些企业处于亏损的状态
Some companies are in a state of loss

但是这样的一些企业
but some of these companies may have mastered

可能掌握了前沿的一些技术
some of the cutting-edge technologies

他们的无形资产的占比很高
and their intangible assets account for a high proportion

正是因为这样的一些特征
It is precisely because of such characteristics that

使得互联网企业它蕴含着巨大的价值
Internet companies have enormous value

除了这样的一些企业价值评估的主流的方法以外
In addition to the mainstream approach to enterprise value assessment

我们还会用到一些辅助性的方法
we also use some complementary methods

就像我们刚才讲到过的
As we have just mentioned,

企业价值评估方法会用到一些统计学的方法
the enterprise value assessment method will use some statistical methods

比如说我们会用回归分析、时间序列分析
For example, regression analysis and time series analysis

进行收益的预测
are used to predict the return

现在已经是大数据的时代、人工智能的时代
It is now the era of big data and the era of artificial intelligence

对于互联网企业的估值
For the valuation of Internet companies,

随着数据的积累越来越多
with the accumulation of data more and more

我们也可以用人工神经网络等机器学习的方法
it is also possible to use the artificial neural network and

来进行收益预测
other machine learning methods to make revenue prediction

那么另外一个问题
Then another question,

我们刚才讲互联网企业它的收益是具有不确定性的
we just talked about Internet companies, its benefits are uncertain

影响收益的这个因素是复杂的
This factor affecting revenue is complex

那么怎么样去处理这些不确定性问题
and these uncertainties can also be addressed

我们也可以借助计算机仿真的一些手段
by means of computer simulation

比如说蒙特卡洛仿真模拟
For example, Monte Carlo simulation can also

也可以用于企业价值的评估
be used to evaluate enterprise value

那么还有一些其他的一些方法模型
There are some other method models

那么我们这里就不再一一介绍了
we will not introduce them one by one here