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同学们大家好
Hello everyone

这一节我带大家来了解关于预期现金流折现当中
In this section, I will take you through the selection of the last parameter

最后一个参数的选取——折现率
in the expected cash flow discounting - discount rate

那么在讲折现率选取的时候
When I talk about the discount rate，

可能会有这样一些小的要求
there are some small requirements

第一个 我们说折现率
First,when we talking about discount rate,

在设定其取值的时候
setting its value

不能低于投资的机会成本
cannot be lower than the opportunity cost of investment

在这里所谓的投资的机会成本
The opportunity cost of the so-called investment means that

打个比方 将钱放在银行里边他总还是有收益的
for example, putting money in the bank is profitable

所以这一部分的机会成本
The opportunity cost of this part can generally

我们一般可以用市场上
be expressed in the market

比如同期的国债
such as the national debt of the same period

和银行的存款利率来表示
and the deposit interest rate of the bank

既然我要决定投资
Since I have to decide on investment,

肯定是因为我拿这笔钱所带来的收益
it must be because the income I bring with this money

要高于国债或者银行的存款利率
is higher than the national debt or bank deposit rate

所以这是我们第一个要求
So this is our first request

第二个要求
The second requirement

我们既然讲折现率包含了所谓的无风险
Since the discount rate includes no risk

就是所谓的机会成本了
is the so-called opportunity cost

还有一部分是行业的特征
Another part is the characteristics of the industry

那么这个行业的特征我们用什么来表示？
So what do we use to characterize this industry?

需要去加上一个行业的平均收益
Need to add the industry average income,

那么这个行业的平均收益
then the average income of this industry

我们用什么作为一个参考指标呢？
what do we use as a reference indicator?

国家在对不同行业进行管理的时候
When the country manages different industries,

他为了指导我们大家进行投资
he will give a benchmark return rate for this industry

会给出这个行业的一个基准收益率
in order to guide all of us to invest

但这个基准收益率是个相对比较低的
However, the benchmark rate of return is relatively low

我们不能够拿这个比较低的数值
We can't take this relatively low value

来反映这家行业的真实的收益率
to reflect the real rate of return of the industry,

所以只能够进行一定的调整
so we can only make some adjustments

调整之后得出的
After the adjustment,

是行业的平均收益
the average income of the industry is obtained

这个呢！作为我们收益取值的一个参考的重要指标
an important indicator as a reference for our revenue value

这是我们的第二个要求
This is our second request

第三个要求
The third requirement

有人会说
Some people will say

我们能不能用贴现率来作为折现率？
can we use the discount rate as the discount rate?

我们这里讲不可以
we can not

所谓的贴现其实是一个银行票据的贴现行为
The so-called discount is actually the posting of a bank note

银行在对这张票据进行贴现率设置的时候
When the bank sets the discount rate for this bill,

其实考虑的是这张票据所对应的折现者的个人信用
it actually considers the personal credit and short-term risk

短期的风险
of the discounter corresponding to the bill

并没有反映出这个行业乃至这家企业的
and does not reflect the true profitability of

真实的一个盈利能力
the industry and even the company

所以不能够简单的以贴现率来作为折现率
So you can't simply use the discount rate as the discount rate

这是三个要求
This is the third requirement

那么在这个三个要求之上
Based on these three requirements

我们用一个什么样的方法来设定具体取值呢
what method do we use to set specific values

这里需要两个模型
Here we need two models

第一个我们可以称之为叫做WACC
the first one can be called WACC,

就是我们在上一节讲到的
we talked about in the previous section,

加权平均资本成本
weighted average cost of capital

以及第二个模型叫CAPM
And the second model CAPM,

就是资本成本定价模型
Capital cost pricing model

这两个模型我们在折现率求解的时候
These two models are generally used in combination

一般来说是综合使用的
when solving the discount rate

我们先来看这两个模型的来源
Let's first look at the source of these two models

因为我们提到折现率分成两部分内容
Because we mentioned the discount rate is divided into two parts

第一部分叫做无风险的收益
The first part is called risk-free income

第二部分是特殊的 叫做权益风险溢价
The second part is special, called the equity risk premium

那么这一部分的溢价怎么来呢
So how does the premium for this part come

我们其实会套用一个相对来说比较简单的公式
We apply a relatively simple formula

那就是我们认为这项资产或者这家公司它能够有更高的收益
We think this asset or the company can have higher returns

那么这个收益是处在市场当中的
Then this income is in the market

乃至于这个行业当中
and even in this industry

那么一个简单的处理方式就是
A simple way to deal with this is

将整个市场上面的平均收益率
to subtract the average rate of return above the market

减去无风险报酬率之后
from the risk-free rate of return

得出一个市场风险溢价
Calculate the market risk premium

然后再根据这家企业所处的行业
Then according to a multiple of the industry

所对应的一个倍数
in which the company is located

一般来说
Generally speaking,

我们可以认为这个倍数是大于1的
we can think that this multiple is greater than 1

进行倍乘之后
After multiplying,

变成了这家企业的整体的权益风险溢价
it became the overall equity risk premium of the company

然后将这部分内容再加上我们讲到的无风险利率之后
Then add this part of the content to the risk-free rate

合起来
After accumulating,

才成为我们对这家企业整体的
it becomes our judgment on the equity capital

一个权益资本的判断
of the whole company

好 这个模型我们具体化
Well, the specificity of this model

其实就是我们现在讲到的资本资产定价模型
is the capital asset pricing model

好 我们现在看到的这个模型本身是什么呢
Ok, what is the model we are seeing now

有两部分内容组成
There are two parts to compose

第一部分叫rf
The first part is called rf

就叫做社会的一个无风险报酬率
called a risk-free rate of return for society

这个报酬率我们可以简单点
We can simply use this rate of return

就用同期的国债
using the national debt or

或者说银行存款利率来表示
bank deposit interest rate for the same period

第二部分我们说是rm减去rf之后的差值
The second part is rm minus rf

乘以β系数
multiplied by the beta coefficient

这里的β系数
The beta coefficient here

是行业风险的一个表示
is a representation of industry risk

我们可以在相应的
We can get its value in

一些商业数据库当中获得它的取值
some corresponding commercial databases

rm和rf呢
Rm and rf

当rf就是我们之前无风险报酬率
rf is the risk-free rate of return

那么rm我们说叫做社会平均收益率
Then rm is called the average social rate of return

它从哪里来的
Where did it come from

我们就可以想到所谓的社会是指什么呢
We can think of what the so-called society means

简单的理解
Simple understanding,

你可以在股票市场上来找
you can find it in the stock market

股票反映的就是整个社会可能在
Stocks reflect an average return of the entire society

一个相对开放环境下的一个平均收益
in a relatively open environment

好 那么在一个足够分散的股票市场上
Ok, after finding an average rate of return

找到一个平均收益率之后
on a sufficiently fragmented stock market

就可以得出我们公式中第二部分的乘数
You can get the multiplier of the second part of the formula

将两者加起来
Adding the two together,

就可以得到我们讲到的股权的
we can get a capital cost rg of

一个资本成本rg
the equity we talked about

那是不是说这个股权成本
Does that mean that this equity cost

就表示了这家企业的一个折现率呢
represents a discount rate for this company

并不是
Not

因为我们知道
Because we know that

企业资产等于所有者权益加上负债
corporate assets equal the owner’s equity plus liabilities

那么股权的资本成本
Then the capital cost of equity

其实反映的是所有者权益
actually reflects the owner’s equity

那么负债在哪里呢
So where is the debt

所以我们需要将CAPM这个模型所得出来的
So we need to discount the equity capital cost

股权资本成本这个折现率
of the CAPM model

再和我们的债权的成本加起来
and add up to the cost of our claims

这就是我们看到的第二个公式
This is the second formula we see

WACC它的基本思想是做加权和
The basic idea of WACC is to do weighted sums

第一部分我们是
In the first part, we are the capital of

市场价值下普通股的资本
common stock under market value

它的一个权重乘以这家企业的
One of its weights multiplied by the capital cost

普通股的资本成本
of the company’s common stock

加上债务成本
plus the cost of debt

就是我们后面看到的公司的第二部分
is the second part of the company we see later

当然了在我们讲到债务成本的时候
Of course, when we talk about the cost of debt,

需要加一个税后的问题
we need to add a post-tax problem

所以他会发现后面会乘一个1-T
So multiply by 1-T,

将这两者加起来之后
and adding the two together is

才是我们整个企业价值评估
the discount rate required for

当中所需要的折现率
our entire corporate valuation

叫做WACC
called WACC

那如果大家能够回忆到我们在第二节当中
If you can recall the discount rate total summation formula,

所提出来的折现率总求和公式的时候
we proposed in the second quarter

你就会发现
You will find

我们在等式右边的现金流
the cash flow on the right side of the equation

我们现在可以知道了
we can now know

收益年期我们也能知道了
We can also know the income period

折现率我们用WACC也能够知道了
The discount rate can be known by WACC

这个时候根据三个未知数
At this time, based on three unknowns

就可以最终求出这家企业的价值
we can finally find the value of this enterprise

这就是我们现在可以了解到的
This is the application of the

预期现金流折现或者说收益法
expected cash flow discount or the application of the income

在企业价值评估当中的应用
method in the enterprise value assessment