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上面我们介绍对于独角兽企业估值的这个难点
Above we introduced this difficulty in the valuation of unicorn companies

从这个市场法的思路和这个收益法的思路两个角度进行的介绍
from the perspective of this market law and income method

那么下面我们就对这个独角兽的估值方法做一个介绍
So let's take a look at the valuation method of this unicorn

首先第一个我们来介绍一下
First of all，let us introduce that

就是我们对独角兽进行估值的时候
when we evaluate the unicorn

一个基本思路是怎么形成
how is a basic idea formed

那么原则是这样的
Then the principle is this

就是由于独角兽企业本身它的这样一个快速的成长性
because of the rapid growth of the unicorn company itself

它在不同的阶段
At different stages

它的这样一个估值的逻辑是有差异
its logic of valuation is different

因此我们就会依据独角兽企业本身的发展阶段
Based on the development stage of the unicorn enterprise itself

通过选取可量化核心指标的方式
through selecting quantifiable core indicators

来构建所谓的估值方法
finally we will construct a so-called valuation method

那么这就这个有两个关键
Then there are two key points to this

第一个观念就是发展阶段怎么划分
The first concept is how to divide the development stage

因为发展阶段意味着你的这样一个企业成长过程当中
Because the development phase means that

不同的发展阶段存在着
At different stages of development

不同的这个企业逻辑和估值逻辑
it have different business logic and valuation logic

我们是把这个独角兽企业划分为三段
We divide this unicorn enterprise into three segments

就是初创期 、成长期和成熟期
which are the initial stage、the growth period and the maturity period

首先要说明的是第一点
The first thing to explain is

就是我们这里没有采用通常的所谓四阶段的划分法
that we do not use the usual four-stage division method

也就是说我们不再考虑所谓衰退期的问题
which means that we no longer consider the recession period

这是因为我们认为独角兽企业到目前为止
This is because we believe that the unicorn company until now

我们看来仍然是处在一个所谓的成长型的企业当中
we still think it is also a so-called growth-oriented enterprise

因此不需要太多的去考虑它所谓衰退期的问题
so there is no need to think too much about its so-called recession

第二个我们这所讨论的成熟期
Secondly maturity period

跟一般企业的成熟性还是有一定差异的
we discussed here is still different from the general enterprise

因为独角兽企业即便我们认为它进入了成熟期
because even if we think that it has entered maturity

他还有很大的所谓的成长性空间是需要分析
he still has a lot of so-called growth space to analysis

那么发展阶段划分之后
After the development phase is divided

接下来很重要的就是不同的发展阶段
the next important thing is the different stages of development

选取什么样的核心指标
What core indicators are chosen

作为我们构建独角兽估值方法的基础
as the basisfor our unicorn valuation method

对于初创期的独角兽企业而言的话
For the unicorn company in the early stage

初创期的独角兽企业，特别在互联网领域
the unicorn company in the early stage especially in the Internet field

它更关注的是跟用户的关系
is more concerned with the relationship with the user

也就是今天通行市场上你评估一个初创期的互联网企业的基本的逻辑
today you are evaluating a start-up Internet company in the popular market

就是看它跟用户的关系
The basic logic is to look at its relationship with the user

所以我们使用跟用户价值跟用户数量相关的指标
So we use indicators related to user value and number of users

作为初创期估值方法的一个基础
as a basis for the initial valuation method

第二个独角兽进入成长期之后
Secondly after unicorn entered the growth period

这个时候已经不能单纯的用它的所谓的用户指标
it was no longer possible to use its so-called user index

作为判断独角兽企业价值的基础
as a basis for judging the value of the unicorn enterprise

另一方面来讲 通过了前期吸收用户的过程
On the other hand through the process of absorbing users in the early stage

这个阶段的独角兽企业也开始要考虑
the unicorn companies at this stage also began to consider

是否能够实现真正的现金收入
if they can realize real cash income

换句话说
In other words

这个时候他的客户应该能够为独角兽创造一定的价值
at this time his client should be able to create a certain value for it

当然独角兽在这个阶段，由于我们前面所聊的
Of course，at this stage，the unicorn is not necessarily profitable

他的所谓的高额成本支出的存在
because of the so-called high cost of expenditure that we talked about earlier

它不见得会有盈利
It's not going to be profitable

但是收入指标就成为我们
but the income indicator

对于成长期的独角兽企业进行估值的
has becomea major underlying method and source of ideas

一个主要的基础方法和思路来源
for the valuation of the unicorn company in the growth period

第三个，独角兽进入成熟期之后
Thirdly ，after the unicorn enters maturity

它就会面对一个问题
it will face a problem

就是所谓的变现问题
it is the so-called cashing problem

不仅是要变现，而且是要盈利
Not only is it to be realized but it need to be profitable

因为进进入成熟期之后，独角兽企业就面对一个
After entering the maturity period the unicorn company faces the problem of

是否能够找到稳定的市场竞争位置
whether it can find a stable market competition position

稳定的盈利模式的问题
and a stable profit model

只有通过稳定的盈利模式实现了所谓的利润
Only by realizing the so-called profit through a stable profit model

我们才能说这个独角兽企业是
can we say that this unicorn enterprise is a company

一个真正意义上能够创造价值的企业
that can truly create value

因此我们对于成熟期的独角兽企业
Therefore,we choose the profit indicator for the mature unicorn company

选用盈利指标作为它成熟期评估方法构建的核心指标
as the core indicator for its mature evaluation method

接下来我们就要介绍第一个阶段
Next we will introduce method of valuation of the unicorn in the initial stage

也就是初创期的独角兽估值的方法
the original unicorn valuation method

我们选择了三个方法
We have chosen three methods

第一个就是DEVA估值法
the first is the DEVA valuation method

第二个是P除以MAU估值法
the second is P divided by the MAU valuation method

第三个是DEVA估值法的修正
and the third is the revision of the DEVA valuation method

首先来介绍DEVA估值法
First,let's introduce the DEVA valuation method

DEVA估值它的这样一个方法的理论来源
The theoretical source of such a method is

就是我们所熟知的梅特卡定律
from the well-known Metzka law

梅德卡夫定律是研究
Medkaf's law is

所谓的互联网现象和互联网价值一个定律
a law that studies the internet phenomenon and the value

它是讲一个网络的价值
It is said that the value of a network

跟这个用户的数量有很强的相关性
has a strong correlation with the number of users

那么它的价值的增长
Then its value growth

是按照这个用户数量的平方的速度增长
is based on the square of the number of users

也就是说按照用户数量的倍增来增长
which means that it grows according to the expansion of user number

根据梅特卡夫定律，
According to Metcalfe's law

人们就提出了所谓的DEVA估值法
the so-called DEVA valuation method was proposed

基本的公式就是E等于M乘以C的平方
The basic formula is that E is equal to M multiply the square of C

E是所评估企业或者项目的经济价值
E is the economic value of the company or project being evaluated

M是你的初始投入资本，C则为客户价值
M is your initial investment capital and C is the customer value

选用客户的价值的平方
using the square of the customer's value

也就是说随着客户价值的增加
that means with With the increase in customer value

你的网络价值、企业价值
The network value、corporate value

项目价值是以倍增的方式来进行
and project value are multiplied

那么DEVA方法作为早期对于互联网企业进行评估的方法
Then the DEVA method is an early method for evaluating Internet companies

实际上它有相对而言比较广泛的应用
In fact it has relatively wide-ranging applications

比如说脸书在估值的时候就使用了DEVA估值
For example Facebook uses the DEVA valuation when it is valued

但是DEVA估值法也存在着一定的缺陷
but the DEVA valuation method also has defect

随着我们实践和研究的进行
as the processing of practice and research

第一个就是C作为用户价值 它是怎么得来的
the first is C as a user value how did it come from

他的这个估算并不精确
His estimate is not accurate

因此人们就提出需要对用户价值进行精确估算
so people have to make an accurate estimate of the user's value

这是第一位方法的第一个缺陷
which is the first flaw in the first method

用户价值没有精确部分
There is no precise part of the user value

第二个,用倍增的方法来描述互联网的用户
Second,the use of multiplication method to describe the users of the Internet

包括用户价值跟所谓互联网企业价值之间的关系
including the relationship between user value and the so-called Internet enterprise value

符不符合所谓的现实
if it conform to the so-called reality

就是是不是伴随着用户数量或者用户价值的增长,就一定是倍增
if an increase in the number of users or user value must be multiplied

实际上我们看到这样的倍增方式
In fact,we see that such a multiplication method

并不符合互联网企业价值增长的时机
does not meet the timing of the growth of Internet enterprise value

因此就要去找寻到另外的描述
so we must find another growth relationship that describes

互联网用户价值变化和企业价值变化之间的增长关系
the change in the value of Internet users and changes in corporate value

第三个
Third

DEVA基本上不考虑就是互联网企业的竞争者对他施加的影响
DEVA basically does not consider the impact of Internet companies' competitors

他往往假设世界上只有一个互联网企业
He often assumes that there is only one Internet company in the world

它的用户数就是唯一决定它的企业价值变化的单变量
its number of users is the only univariate that determines the change of its value

但实际上我们都知道
But in fact we all know

随着这个独角兽互联网企业进入竞争阶段
that as unicorn Internet company enters the competition stage

它的竞争对手会对它的用户产生争夺
its competitors will compete for its users

会对它的用户价值产生影响 进而影响它的企业价值
which will affect its user value and affect its its corporate value

因此DEVA方法没有估计
Therefore the DEVA doesn't estimate the

市场份额变化对企业价值的影响
the impact of market share changes on corporate value

这个是它的一个重要缺陷
This is an important flaw

那么介绍了DEVA方法之后
So after introducing the DEVA method

我们来介绍第二种方法
let's introduce the second method

第二种方法实际上是为了围绕一个核心指标来构建
The second method is actually built around a core indicator called MAU

MAU是什么
What is MAU

就是衡量用户规模的指标
this indicator measures the size of the user

叫做月活跃用户指标
is called the monthly active user indicator

因为今天我们去判断一个所谓的互联网企业
Because today we are going to judge a Internet company

独角兽互联网企业的时候
Unicorn Enterprise

我们单着用所谓的用户数量指标是不可以的
we can't use the user quantity index alone

因为你是从点击率也好
Because no matter from a click-through rate

你是从这个注册率也好
or registration rate

并没有直接反映
and does not directly reflect

用户对这个企业的产品和服务的使用程度
the using to the company's products and service

所以使用活跃用户指标
Therefore the use of active user indicators

其实是能够比较真实地反映
can actually reflect

一个企业能够吸引的真实用户数量
the true number of real users that an enterprise can attract

那么今天在使用所谓的MAU法进行评估的时候
So when we use the MAU method for evaluation today

实际上我们就是找寻在市场上有没有这样的对标公司
we are actually looking for such a benchmark company in the market

这个对标公司它本身的价值
The value of this benchmarking company

跟这个企业能够吸引到的活跃用户是高度相关的
is highly relevant to the active users that the company can attract

如果你能够找到这样的对标公司
If you can find such a benchmarking company

然后它有一个价值呈现在那里的话
and then it has a value to be there

那么你就可以通过
then you can reverse the value of your business

自己所评估企业的活跃用户的指标来反推你企业的价值
by metrics of the active users of the company you are evaluating

因此找到与用户规模有强相关性且可以合适对标的公司
so finding a target company which have strong correlation with the size of the user

包括行业对标 模式的标准公司
including the target company with same industry standard and model standard

那么这个方法就具有一定的适用性
then this method has certain applicability

那除了这样的所谓的这个市场比较法
In addition to this market comparison method

使用MAU为基础的思想比较法之外
using the MAU-based method

还有一种直接计算用户的方式
there is also a way to directly calculate the user

就是通过直接计算用户的价值来进行估算
which is to estimate by directly calculating the value of the user

比如用户的价值就等于单用户价值乘以用户数
for example the user value is equal to single user value multiply number of users

那这是一个简单估算方法
then this is a simple estimation method

据说小米雷军在早期对小米进行估值的时候
It is said that MIUI Leijun used this method when he valued MIUI in the early days

比如说小米有7000万用户 每个用户价值300美元
For example,MIUI has 70 million users and each user is worth 300 US dollars

那么你算出来就是小米的大概的整体估值
Then you can calculate the approximate overall valuation of MIUI

那么结合我们讲的这个MAU法
So the MAU method that we talked about

就是把活跃用户纳入到这样一个
means that we make active user into

我们的独角兽互联网企业的评估当中
evaluation of such a unicorn Internet company

就引发了我们对于DEVA方法的修正
which triggered our revision of the DEVA method

那么DEVA估值法的修正是沿着这样的思路来进行的
Then the revision of the DEVA valuation method is carried out along this line

第一个就是我们考虑用户价值怎么样能够精确计算
The first is how we can accurately calculate the value of the user

第二个我们考虑用户价值的变化怎么样跟
The second is considers how we build reasonable relation

企业价值的变化构建合理的相关性
between the changes in user value and changes in corporate value

第三个我们怎么样考虑所谓的竞争者对企业施加的影响
thirdly ,we consider the impact of the competitors on the enterprise

反映到企业价值的判断过程当中来
Reflected in the judgment process of corporate value

这也就是我们所看到这个公式就是V=M*P(APIU*YAU)LN(APIU*YAU)
The formula we see is V=M*P*ln(APIU*YAU)

APIU*YAU里面的内容实际上就是所谓的
The content inside is actually the product of

用户贡献价值和年活跃用户数之间的乘积
the user contribution value and the number of annual active users

它反映的是按年为时间单位计量的用户贡献值
which reflects the user contribution value measured in units of time

P是市场份额
P is the market share

它实际上反映竞争者、竞争企业行为对于互联网企业的影响
which actually reflects the impact of competitors behavior on Internet companies

为什么取对数呢
Why take the logarithm

这里就反映了
This reflects the fact

一个企业用户价值的变化和企业本身之间
that change in the user value and the enterprise itself

并不是简单的倍数增长模式
is not a simple multiple growth model

而是采用所谓的对数增长模式
but a logarithmic growth model

那么通过这三个方面的修正
Then through the correction of these three aspects

就使得我们的DEVA方法有了
make our DEVA method

更进一步的详细的可以符合现实实况的使用性
has been further detailed and can be used in real life

但是这里还必须讨论的就是 比如对数的方法
But what must be discussed here for example the logarithmic method

是不是真正能够反映所谓的
if it is able to reflect the regular pattern

互联网用户价值和互联网企业之间的价值变化的规律
between internet users value and the value of internet companies

这是值得讨论的
This is worth discussing