Video在线视频

给你一杆秤
Give you a scale

和你一起度量互联网企业的价值空间
and measure the value space of Internet enterprises together with you

在我们讲述了斗鱼网站
after we've covered the valuation process for douyu

今日头条和蚂蚁金服这三家案例企业的估值的过程之后
today's headlines and ant financial

我不知道，你是不是能够对于你所选择的那家企业
I don't know if you could try to value your chosen company

尝试着运用一些方法对它进行估值
in a number of ways

那现在， 我们对互联网企业估值的方法
Now we do a brief review and summary of

做一个简要的梳理和总结
Internet enterprise valuation methods

我们在过去的这几章的内容里面
In the past few chapters

一起学习了
we have learned some traditional valuation methods

包括相对估值法 、绝对估值法在内 的一些传统的估值法
including relative valuation method and absolute valuation method

但是我们也发现
However, we also find that

互联网企业， 它有很多特点
Internet enterprises have many features

比如说它的风险非常大, 它的成长非常快 ,它的这个变化非常的迅速
such as high risk rapid growth and rapid changes

以至于 我们有的时候, 传统的方法无所适从
so that the traditional methods are sometimes not appropriate

所以这个时候呢 ,我们就需要寻求新的解决方案
so we need to find new solutions at this time

纵观我们目前市场上常用的一些
If you look at some of the ways we use

对互联网企业进行估值的方法的话
to value Internet companies in the market today

无外乎, 接下来的这六类
there are only the next six categories

第一类 ,,就是我们在前面用的比较多的DEVA的估值模型法
The first category which is the valuation model method of DEVA

那么它的基础就是梅特卡夫定律
that we used a lot earlier is based on Metcalfe's law

第二种方法是情景化的收益现值法
The second method is the episodic present value of earnings method

所谓情景化
which is called contextualization,

也就是给它一些场景
which means giving it some scenarios

还是运用 DCF 预期现金流折现的方法
or using the DCF expected cash flow discount method

我们知道, 预期现金流折现的方法
We know that the expected cash flow discount method need to

需要对这个资产或者是企业 未来的收益
forcast the future earnings of the assets or the enterprise

它的折现率以及它的存续期间 进行预测
the discount rate and its duration

而每一个参数都预测
and each parameter need prediction

如果误差在一个参数或者两个参数身上体现的话
if error was reflected on a parameter or two parameters

最后就会使得估值的结果非常的不靠谱
finally will be the result of valuation is very unreliable

第二类, 情景化的收益现值法
The second type, the present value method of episodic returns

在这三个预测的参数之上, 又加了一个情景化的假设条件
adds a scenario hypothesis to the three predicted parameters

使得互联网的估值变得更加地不可琢磨
making the Internet's valuation more unpredictable

所以这个方法, 也是难度比较大的
Therefore, this method is also more difficult to manage

如果没有专业的经验的话, 很难驾驭
without professional experience

第三类方法就是市盈率比较法
The third kind of method is the price-to-earnings ratio method

在我们讨论 蚂蚁金服这家公司的 企业价值的时候
When we discuss the enterprise value of ant financial

我们就运用了市盈率比较法来对它进行估值
we use the price-to-earnings ratio method to evaluate ant financial

事实上在我的课堂里面
In my class in fact

我经常讲到的一个案例
I often talk about a case which is that

是阿里巴巴 在2014年去美国纽交所上市之前
before alibaba went to the United States listed on the NYSE in 2014

国际上的评估机构 投行
the international assessment institutions investment Banks

也对阿里已经有了一些估值的分析
have done some evaluation analysis of ali

比如说,当时在2013年 摩根斯坦利的分析师
for example ,in 2013 at that time an analyst at Morgan Stanley

就尝试着用ebay Facebook和腾讯
was trying to use p/e ratio of ebay Facebook and tencent

这三家企业的市盈率 来对比看阿里巴巴的市值
to compare to see the market capitalisation of alibaba

当时他得出的结论是
then he concluded that

阿里巴巴的IPO的价值 ,应该在660亿到1280亿美元之间
alibaba IPO value should be between $66 billion to $128 billion

后面 ,当阿里巴巴在美国IPO上市之后
Later when alibaba went public in the United States

其实那个估值的结果 跟这个区间还是比较接近的
the result of that valuation was actually closer to this range

好 ,那第四类的方法 是PE比上CAGR
Ok, so the fourth kind of approach is PE divided by CAGR

刚才我们讲了这个概念
which we just talked about

PE是市盈率, CAGR是年均复合增长率
PE is p/e and CAGR is the compound annual growth rate

这个概念, 其实就非常的专业
This concept, in fact, is very professional

而且它揭示了 ,互联网企业的 一个非常本质的含义
and it reveals a very essential meaning of the Internet enterprise

很多互联网企业价值 上亿 十亿 百亿
Many Internet companies are worth billions and billions of dollars

可是它的利润还是负数
but their profits are still negative

这颠覆了我们传统意义上的 企业价值
which subverts our traditional sense of enterprise value

我们一般的 工业企业
When we take a look at he average industrial enterprise

农业企业
the agricultural enterprise

或者以前我们见过的那些常规的企业, 都是你要它赚钱了
or the conventional enterprise that we have seen before

它的这个账面上的价值在增长了, 它的盈利在增加了
you just think it is a profitable and promising enterprise

你才认为 它是一个有利润的有前景的企业
when you see the book value is increasing, its profit is increasing

可是, 互联网企业不是这样的
However, this is not the case for Internet companies

决定互联网企业（价值） 最关键的一个指标就是CAGR
One of the most critical indicators for Internet companies (value) is CAGR

也就是年均复合增长率
or annual compound growth rate

换句话说,只要一个互联网企业
In other words, as long as an Internet company

在保持持续的增长
in maintaining sustainable growth

就像我们讨论到今日头条这样的企业
as we discussed today headlines

它的用户数量 ,它的日均活跃用户数量
its number of users its average daily number of active users

它的每个用户的平均的阅读的时长等等这样一些指标
its average of each user's reading time and other index continues to grow

在持续增长的话, 那么这家互联网企业的价值, 就会持续增长
the value of the Internet company will continue to grow

通过这个案例, 这样的一个指标
In this case, such an indicator

我们并不能说
we can't say that

互联网企业的价值是跟利润无关的
the value of Internet enterprises has nothing to do with profits

但是的确, 在互联网企业价值评估中
but it is true that in the value assessment of Internet enterprises

利润没有那么重要
profits are not so important

至少眼前的利润没有那么重要
at least the immediate profits are not so important

这是我们必须要去理解的, 一个非常重要的事实
which is a very important fact that we have to understand

第五个方法
The fifth method

我们叫做市值用户比较法
we call it the market value user comparison method

第六个 叫做营销回报法
The sixth one is called the marketing return method

这两种方法 相对来说, 用的比较少一些
These two methods are relatively less used

有兴趣的同学可以 进一步的去了解
Those who are interested can learn more about them

总之
All in all

在互联网企业估值的常用的方法中
the first three methods are the most commonly used

前三种方法还是用的最多的
in Internet enterprise valuation

问题又来了
The question comes again

遇到具体的问题的时候
when you encounter a specific problem

到底该选择 什么样的方法呢?
What method should you choose ?

其实, 我们有一些通常的结论 就一般化的结论
In fact, we have some general conclusions

我们要根据 这个互联网企业的 生命周期来进行选择
we have to choose according to the life cycle of this Internet enterprise

对于那些 ,初创期 成长期的互联网企业
For those Internet enterprises in the initial stage and growth stage

这些企业, 说实在话, 往往都是处于还是亏损的 利润为负的
in fact, they tend to be in the negative profit or loss

但是它体现出了非常强的成长性
but it shows very strong growth

而且它对于这个市场的痛点的弥补
Moreover, it makes up for the pain point of this market

它对于满足消费者需求 产生了前所未有的效果
and it has an unprecedented effect on meeting consumer demand

那么这个时候, 我们就可以考虑用相对估值法
At this point, we can consider using relative valuation methods

比如说PE PB PS还有P/GMV等等这样的一些指标化的方法
such as PE ,PB ,PS ,P/GMV and so on

如果对于那些位于成熟期
If the Internet enterprises are in the mature period

或者业务相对稳定 的互联网企业
or the business is relatively stable

我们就可以用 绝对估值法
we can use absolute valuation method

比如说情景化的DCF方法 B-S期权定价法
such as episodic DCF method b-s option pricing method

蒙特卡洛模拟方法等等
monte carlo simulation method and so on

对于那些具有活跃用户特征 互联网企业
For those Internet businesses with active user characteristics

比如说 像今日头条 斗鱼直播等等 这样的一些企业
such as today’s headlines douyu live etc.

我们就可以考虑 引入基于梅特卡夫定律的DEVA模型方法
we can consider introducing a DEVA model based on metcalfe's law

这个是我们对方法的一些总结
This is some summary of our approach

回到我们对于互联网企业估值的这个一般的框架上面
Going back to our general framework for Internet enterprise valuations

我们还是需要去理解就是
we still need to understand that is

为什么互联网企业估值 这么难?
why are Internet enterprise valuations so difficult?

互联网企业 一般来说, 都具有这样的一些特征
Internet enterprises generally have such characteristics

高风险, 高成长, 快速的变化
as high risk, high growth and rapid change

这就使得传统的
which makes the traditional

成本法 ,市场法 ,收益法等等
cost method market method income method etc

这些估值路径都是失效的
all of which are ineffective in the valuation path

考虑到互联网企业的盈利模式
Considering the profit model of Internet enterprises

对用户数量 和网络效应的高度依赖
which is highly dependent on the number of users and network effects

梅特卡夫定律 ,DEVA模型 ,蒙特卡洛模拟等方法
metcalfe's law DEVA model monte carlo simulation and other methods

提供了部分的解决方案
provide partial solutions

当然 ,这些方法也并不都是完美的
Of course ,these methods are not all perfect

互联网企业的估值
Internet enterprise valuation

必须要具体问题具体分析
must be specific to the specific analysis

在这个过程中 ,我们会考虑三点
In this process ,we will consider three points

第一点, 首先考虑互联网企业的行业分类
First, we will consider the industry classification of Internet enterprises

在前面我们4.1 这个章节部分的时候
In the previous section of section 4.1

我们专门的讨论 了互联网企业分类的
we specifically discussed some of the basis methods of

一些依据方法
Internet enterprise classification

和常用的分类的这种方式
as well as the common methods of classification

我们推荐的是第一种
What we recommend isthe first kind

根据互联网+功能板块来进行分类
classifies according to the Internet + function section

第二种
The second kind

是根据互联网企业创造价值的方式
according to the Internet enterprise creation value way

来进行分类
carries on the classification

在考虑互联网企业价值评估 的
when considering the method selection of

方法选择的时候
value assessment of Internet enterprises

第二点, 就是要考虑互联网企业 的生命周期
The second point is to consider the life cycle of Internet enterprises

企业也像人一样有生老病死, 对吧?
Businesses like people live and die, right?

有这个生命周期
There's a life cycle

通常我们把企业的生命周期分成了
and usually, we divide the life cycle of a business into

初创期 、成长期 、成熟期 、衰退期
the initial growth phase and the maturation phase and the decline phase

我们有很多的指标帮助决策者来作出判断
We have a lot of indicators to help decision makers

这个企业， 目前到底处于 哪个阶段
figure out where the business is at.

第三点 很重要的一个观点
The third point, and very important point

就是互联网企业也是企业
is that the Internet business is also the business

不管它有多么炫 ，它的一些核心的问题
no matter how fancy it is

我们还是得梳理一下， 比如说
we have to sort through some of its core issues, for example

这个互联网企业 它核心的产品是什么
this internet business what is its core product?

或者它所提供的服务是什么?
Or what is it offering?

这个互联网企业的 用户数量有多少?
How many users does this internet business have?

它的单体用户盈利能力 怎么样?
How profitable is it for individual users?

然后这个互联网企业的 商业模式是怎样的?
Then, what is the business model of this Internet company?

有没有竞争对手?
Are there any competitors?

它的竞争对手能不能 很轻易的模 仿它的商业模式?
Whether Its competitors can easily copy its business model?

也就是很重要的一个概念
which is an important concept in our management

在我们管理学里面我们称之为核心胜任
we call core competency

或者换句话说, 叫核心竞争力
Or in other words, core competence

这个互联网企业有没有核心胜任的能力core competence?
does the Internet enterprise have core competence?

然后再问一下 这个互联网企业 它的市场份额有多大?
And then ask what is the market share of this internet business?

它的人均产值有多高?
How high is its per capital output?

所以, 当我们问一下这些问题 ,梳理一下这些问题的时候
So when we ask these questions and sort them out

其实, 我们对这个企业的分析 就从顶天又回到立地
in fact , our analysis of this enterprise goes back to the ground

我们又站在大地上
and we stand on the ground again

去问一些最关键的, 最实在的问题
and ask some of the most critical and honest questions

去理解这个企业
to understand this enterprise

最后,非常重要的一点是互联网企业
And last but not least, the most important part

其实最关键的是人
in fact are people for Internet companies

我们经常听说听到很多人, 表达这样一个观点
We often hear that a lot of people express the idea that

说风险投资, 投的是人
venture capital is about people

那为什么这样说呢?
So why do you say that?

其实 我们去分析, 这个互联网企业价值的时候
In fact ,when we analyze the value of this Internet enterprise

就表现为三个问题
we will find three questions

第一个, 这个企业的 创业者是谁?
First who is the entrepreneur of this enterprise?

它的管理团队 是一群什么样的人?
What kind of people is its management team?

你是否信赖这群人?
Do you trust these people?

比如说像谷歌公司
For example a company like Google

它的股价已经达到了1237美元每股, 这样的一个高水平的阶段
whose stock price has reached a high level of $1,237 per share

然后企业的市值, 也是8000多亿美元
has a market value of more than $800 billion

接近1万亿的这样的一个规模
or nearly $1 trillion

可是你知道谷歌公司的信条是什么吗?
But do you know what the tenet of Google is?

他们的创始人说, Don't be evil
Their founder says, Don't be evil

不要作恶 这是这家公司的信条
Don't be evil is the company's creed

如果有这样的一个信条, 我想全世界的消费者
If there is such a belief, I think consumers all over the world

不管你是什么样的肤色, 你信仰什么样的宗教
no matter what color you are, what religion you believe in

你讲着什么样的语言, 你都会被这一句信条 这一句信仰所打动
what language you speak, you will be moved by this belief

你就会信赖 这家企业
and you will trust this enterprise

互联网企业估值的非常关键的一点就是预期
the critical point of Internet company valuation is prediction

因为我们讲了
as we talked about

不管是用市场法, 成本法 ,收益法
whether by market method, cost method and income method

或者任何其他的方法, 我们都要去做出很多的预测判断
or any other way, we are going to make many predictions of judgment

而这些预测和判断
and the prediction and judgments

都是建立在我们对于这个市场, 对于这个企业的预期的基础上的
are based on our expectations of the market for the enterprise

而预期说白了, 它是我们的信心
In plain English, expectation is our confidence

它既是我们内心主观的判断
It is the subjective judgment of our heart

也是这个市场, 客观的现实
and the objective reality of this market

所以我们对于
So our summary of the whole approach

整个互联网企业估值的方法的总结就到这一部分
to Internet enterprise valuation, is over

最后呢,我花一分钟的时间
and finally , I'm going to take a minute to make a brief summary

简要地对整个这一章的知识进行一个总结
of the knowledge of the whole chapter

在这一章里面我们讲了五个小节
In this chapter, we cover five sections

首先我们分析了互联网企业 的三次创业浪潮
First we analyze the three waves of Internet start-ups

我们尝试着对互联网企业进行分类
We try to classify Internet companies

然后我们讲了, 三个互联网企业估值的典型案例
Then we describe three typical cases of Internet companies' valuation

斗鱼直播、 今日头条和蚂蚁金服
douyu live today's headlines and ant financial

最后我们对互联网企业估值的方法
Finally, we have systematically sorted out

进行了系统的梳理和总结
and summarized the methods of Internet enterprise valuation

讲到这呢, 我想要说一句话
And now I want to say something

可能你不敢相信
which you may not believe

就是我所讲的所有的这一切, 都是纸上谈兵
it is that all of this I'm talking about is just on paper

可能你会觉得说老师到这个时候才说
You might think "the teacher didn't say this until this point

这是纸上谈兵
all what I have learn was just a piece of paper

这不是蒙我吗 ?不是坑我吗?
Are you cheating on me? Are you kidding me?

不能这样说
you can't say it like this

因为 所有纸上谈兵的东西, 也都是来源于实践
because all these on paper are from practice

我们从实践中总结了这些原理方法
We have summarized these principles and methods from practice

那么我们希望, 这些原理和方法
so we hope these principles and methods can help you

能够在未来帮助你去更深刻的理解
to have a deeper understanding of this complex

这个纷繁复杂, 变化快速的世界
and fast changing world in the future

但是你不要就把这些方法 ,直接搬到现实中去评估那个企业
But don't just take these steps and go straight to reality

然后做出你的投资判断
and evaluate the business and make your investment judgment.

如果你亏了钱了
if you make a loss

你又回过来说, 唉呀 ,那个梅老师没有讲好
you come back and say that teacher Mei didn't teach well

我们希望 ,我们在纸上谈兵 所讲的所有这些 理论和方法
We want all of these theories and approaches that we're talking about

构建的是你的知识的基础
on paper to build the foundation of your knowledge

但是真正的决策 来自于实践
but real decision-making comes from practice

来自于你learn by doing的 这个过程中
from the process of learning by doing

你对于企业对于估值
from the experience the confidence the expectations

所建立起来的经验, 信心和预期
that you have built on enterprise valuation

好 ,这章的内容, 就到这里结束
Ok , that's the end of the chapter

非常感谢你的陪伴!
Thank you very much for your company!