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好，那么我们前面讨论了
Ok,then we discussed earlier

由于这个独角兽企业它的这样一个收益的不确定性强
because this unicorn company has such a strong uncertainty of income

因此从收益角度去对独角兽企业进行估值是存在困难的
it is difficult to estimate the unicorn enterprise from the perspective of profit

实际上今天资本市场上大量对独角兽企业
In fact,today's method of valuation in the capital market

进行估值的方法是市场法
is a market method

用市场途径对独角兽企业进行估值
Valuation of unicorn enterprises by market channels

虽然是一个我们比较流行的方法
is a popular method

但是它同样存在着相关的问题和难点
but it also has related problems and difficult

独角兽企业估值的难点
The difficulty of valuation of unicorn companies

这我们叫做可比公司难寻
is less comparable company

可比公司的选择,第一个方面表现在什么地方
As for the selection of comparable company,Where is the first aspect

找所谓的对标公司的时候
when looking for a so-called benchmarking company

你可能很难找到有真正意义上的可比行业公司
you may find it difficult to find a truly comparable company

第一个,我们前面所述独角兽企业
Firstly,Unicorn we mentioned above

大多数都是具有创新性具有颠覆性的公司
are mostly innovative and disruptive companies

创新性和颠覆性就意味着
Innovation and disruptiveness mean that

这样的企业在它出现的时候是稀少的
such a company is scarce when it appears

由于这样的稀少性和稀缺性
Because of this scarcity and scarcity

使得说你要找到一个有大量的同质
it is basically difficult to say that you have to find an industry

同样的竞争行为的企业存在的行业这是基本上是困难的
with a large number of homogenous and identical competitive behaviors

因此你也就没有把办法
Therefore you have no way

找到同一个行业当中的跟独角兽一样的可比公司
to find a comparable company in the same industry

这是行业不可比
which is incomparable to the industry

第二个,即便是行业可比
Second,even if the industry is comparable

在同一个行业当中
in the same industry

我们看到独角兽企业可能也存在着不同的商业模式
there also may be different business models for unicorn companies

比如同样是电商
For example,as e-commerce company

行业里面有京东和淘宝、有最近出现的拼多多
there are Jingdong，Taobao and Pinduoduo in the industry

显然这些不同的电商平台公司
obviously these different e-commerce platform companies

他们之间都存在着比较大的模式差异
have relatively large differences between them

如果模式存在差异
If there are differences in patterns

你是否能够把这样具有差异性的模式的公司
can you use a company with such a different model

作为你的可比公司标的
as your comparable company

这是第二个问题
This is the second question

考虑完这个行业可比之后,考虑完这个模式可比之后
after considering this so-called industry and model comparability

第三个问题是这样的
the third problem is that

就是前面所述独角兽企业大量都是非上市公司
Unicorn companies are mostly non-listed companies

非上市公司你没有办法获得
non-listed companies have no way to get

它大量的基于公开资本市场的信息和数据
public information and data on capital markets

你也就没有办法找到合适的可比标的
so there is no way to find a suitable comparable target

可比公司难寻的第二个难点在哪里呢
Where is the second difficulty that need to search for a comparable company

就是独角兽企业,如果我们前面所说是一个快速增长的企业
if unicorn company is a fast-growing enterprise

我们一般认为这个企业的增长就像一个人的成长一样
we generally think that the growth of this enterprise is just like a person's growth

它有几个重要的阶段
It has several important stages

从初创到成长到成熟到衰退
from initial creation growth maturity until to decline

但是由于独角兽企业本身是一个爆发性的增长
But because the Unicorn Company itself is exploding

这使得它的所谓的企业生命周期是模糊的
which makes its so-called business life cycle vague

由于这样的企业的生命周期模糊
because of the ambiguity of such a business life cycle

你也很难去判断
it is difficult for you to judge

一个所谓的精确的生命周期的阶段和节点
a stage ang spot of the whole life cycle

因此你说即便是我们找到了
even if we find a company

行业可比的公司、模式可比的公司
with comparable industry and comparable models

你怎么保证你选择的可比公司
how do you ensure that the comparable company you choose

跟你的对标公司是处在同一个生长阶段的
is in the same growth stage

如果这个生命周期阶段不同
If this life cycle is different

你的这个可比性就会打折扣
your This comparability will be compromised

另外一个方面就是由于独角兽企业本身高速增长
The other aspect is due to the rapid growth of the unicorn company itself

前面我们所讲的 并不是所有的独角兽企业
as we said before not all unicorn

最终能都能够成为最后的赢家 都能够存活下来
will eventually be the final winners and survive

一个独角兽企业创造的市场空间
The market space created by a unicorn company

最后可能能够生存下来的企业就是五六家
and the number of companies that may survive in the end are five or six

那当你在一个具体的时点
Then when you are at a specific time

你要判断某一个阶段的独角兽企业
you have to judge

它是否可以作为可比标的的时候
whether a unicorn company at a certain stage can be used as a comparable target

你怎么知道它是在未来的这个生存竞争当中
How do you know that it will survive

能够活到最后能够笑到最后
in the future competition and laugh to the end

因此在不同阶段的生存概率的差异
Therefore the difference in survival probability at different stages

使得我们在选择同一阶段的独角兽企业的
makes us have problems and challenges when choosing the comparable objects

可比对象的时候就存在问题和挑战
of the same stage of the unicorn enterprise

可比公司难寻的第三个问题和难点在哪里呢
What are the third problems and difficulties that are hard to find comparable companies

就是我们今天对用这个所谓的市场法
That is so-called market way

对独角兽企业进行评估的思路
to evaluate the unicorn enterprise we use today

主要是通过可比指标的确定
mainly through the determination of comparable indicators

来找到所谓独角兽企业本身价值的可比性
to find the comparability of the so-called unicorn enterprises themselves

但是今天对于独角兽企业而言
But today as for unicorn companies

本身对它可比指标的确定就是一个问题和挑战
the determination of its comparable indicators is a problem and a challenge

比如我们今天把这个
For example we divide this comparable index

跟独角兽企业市场法评估的可比指标分为两类
of market assessment way into two categories

一类叫做正向价值指标 一类叫做负向价值指标
one is called positive value indicator the other is called negative value indicator

正向价值指标负责去判断
and the positive value indicator is responsible for

独角兽企业本身的成长性、未来收益的盈利性
judging the unicorn enterprise's profitability of growth and future earnings

总之它是积极的
in short it is positive

你可能能够找到 比如我们今天通行的
You may be able to find today

比如活跃客户数
for example the number of active customers

当对互联网独角兽企业进行评估的时候
When evaluating Internet unicorn companies

你谈到的月活 谈它的年活 谈它的日活
you talk about the moonly annual and daily number of active customers

这是一个很重要的价值度量指标
this is a very important value metrics

但是除此之外
But apart from that

还有哪些价值度量指标可以作为我们的可比指标的基础
what other value metrics can be used as the basis for our comparable indicators

另外 其实今天我们缺失的
In addition what we are missing today

往往是对于独角兽未来成长的风险度量指标
is often a measure of the risk for the future growth of the unicorn

如前面所说 不是所有的独角兽企业都能顺利成长
As mentioned above not all unicorn companies can grow up smoothly

不是所有的独角兽企业都能够笑到最后
Not all unicorn companies can laugh at the end

这就意味着在它的这样一个发展当中存在着非常多的风险
which means that there is a lot of risk in such a development

比如，如果对客户来讲
For example，if you are a customer

你是不是去统计一个企业的客户流失数
do you count the number of customer churn in a company

作为度量独角兽企业的成长过程当中的风险指标
as a measure of the risk of a unicorn company's growth process

那么除了客户流出之外
So in addition to the customer outflow

还有什么样的所谓的风险度量指标
what kind of so-called risk metrics

能够帮助我们理解独角兽的价值
can help us understand the value of the unicorn

进而可以选择可比对象呢
and then we can choose comparable objects

比如最近我们看到包括抖音也好 包括暴漫也好
For example Tik Tok and Violent Comic we recently watch

他们都面对了非常大的监管压力
and they all face very large regulatory pressures

换句话说，对于内容领域的独角兽企业而言
In other words，for the unicorn company in the content field

很有可能监管的风险，你如何度量
it is very likely that the risk of supervision and how you measure

如何作为一个指标
how to act as an indicator

进而对独角兽企业的成长和价值判断形成影响
and then influence the growth and value judgment of the unicorn enterprise

这个是另外一个我们需要考虑的范围
This is another range we need to consider