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你好 ,欢迎来到中南财经政法大学
Hello , welcome to zhongnan university of economics and law's

慕课课堂——互联网企业估值
mooc class-- Internet enterprise valuation.

我们的宗旨是给你一杆秤
Our aim is to give you a scale

和你一起度量互联网企业的价值空间
to measure the value space of Internet enterprises with you

那么前面的内容中呢
In the previous context

我们一起学习了互联网企业估值的
we have studied many valuation

很多方法、模型、 路径
methods models paths of the Internet enterprise together

今天呢,我们就
and today we will strike

趁热打铁、学以致用
while the iron is hot and put this to use

把我们学到的这些方法
putting what we have learned

放在一些具体的案例的场景下,来学一下
in some specific case scenarios to learn and look

用一下 、看一下
whether these methods can be used to

我们学的这些方法
evaluate these Internet businesses

到底能不能用来评估我们现实生活中的这些互联网企业
in our real life

首先呢,我们要花一点时间理解一下
First of all, we're going to spend a little bit of time

整个课程的重要的内容章节
understanding the important chapters of the course

这一部分, 我们一共有五个小节
In this part, we have five sections

第一个小节 是对互联网企业的分类
The first section is the classification of Internet enterprises

因为只有我们把企业的分类的
because only when we make clear the boundary

边界搞清楚了
of enterprise classification

我们才能对这个企业的价值做出比较合理的判断
can we make a reasonable judgment on the value of enterprise

第二个小节和第三个第四个小节分别选择了
The second section, the third and the fourth section respectively chose

中国互联网市场上三个典型的
three typical Internet companies in the Chinese Internet market

互联网企业来进行案例的分析
to carry out the analysis of the case

用实操的方法告诉你 对于这种类型的互联网企业
using the method of field to tell you what kind of

我们该选用什么样的企业价值评估方法
enterprise value evaluation methods we should choose

然后对它的分析过程
for this type of Internet enterprises and how to choose

对它的这个关键参数 ,到底怎么选择
when considering the analysis process and key parameters of it

最后呢,它的估值结果应该放在什么样的条件下来使用
Finally ,in what conditions its valuation results should be used

有哪些注意事项等等
and what matters needing attention and so on

第五个小节,就是对整个互联网企业估值的
The fifth section is a review and summary of

方法体系进行一个梳理和总结
the method and system of the entire Internet enterprise valuation

好 ,那我们首先来看一下
Well, firstly let's look at the classification

互联网企业的分类
of Internet enterprises

可以说互联网的出现
It can be said that the emergence of the Internet is

不仅仅是一种技术创新
not only a technological innovation

它打破了传统的交通条件的限制
it breaks the traditional traffic conditions

和地理区位的阻隔
and geographical barrier

而且互联网更是一种现代文明和生活方式的创新
but also a modern civilization and lifestyle innovation

很多互联网企业 ,从一开始就打破了
From the very beginning many Internet enterprises broke

传统的产业分类的标准
the traditional industrial classification standards and redefined

从跨界融合、 变化、 创新等领域
the concept of enterprise from the perspective of

重新的定义了企业的这样一个概念
cross-boundary integration, change and innovation

比如说苹果公司
for example Apple

在前面我们讨论过 ,苹果是不是一家互联网企业
we discussed earlier whether apple is an Internet company

我们的答案说它是
Our answer is yes

因为苹果公司,虽然说一开始
because apple though it started out

是从做个人电脑起家的
from personal computers

然后后面通过iPhone iPod或者是iMac等等
and re-entered the market and become

这样的一些硬件产品,重新进入了市场的视野
a hot favorite among consumers

成为消费者的热宠
through some hardware like the iPhone iPod or iMac

但是 苹果公司也开创了 一种新的商业模式
But apple has also pioneered a new business model

那就是apple APP
the apple APP

在苹果的APP网站上有多达600万个的APP
There are as many as 6 million apps on apple's APP website

全世界有数千万的开发者和消费者
and tens of millions of developers and consumers

参与到苹果APP的开发使用过程中
around the world are involved in the development

这使得苹果企业,从一家硬件设计和制造企业
and use apple's APP which has turned apple enterprise from

变成一家
a hardware design and manufacturing enterprise into

具有互联网特征的互联网企业
an Internet enterprise with Internet characteristics

所以,那我们用传统的产业分类标准
So it's very difficult to define an Internet company

来对互联网企业进行定义
in terms of traditional industry classification standards

比如说对苹果这个公司进行界定的时候
like apple

就变得非常的困难
it is difficult

那么,我们理解互联网产业发展的
Therefore, we should understand the background of

这个时代的背景
the development of the Internet industry in this era

理解互联网企业,这种跨界融合变革的特征
and understand the characteristics of cross-border integration

这是我们理解互联网企业价值的
and transformation of Internet enterprises which are important

非常重要的前提
prerequisite for us to understand the value of Internet enterprises

尤其是不同的国家 ,不同的资本市场
particularly different countries and different capital markets

它是具有区隔的 ,那我们理解互联网企业价值的时候
are separated so when we understand the value of Internet enterprises

就要充分的了解这样的一个重要的前提
we should fully understand such an important premise

这是我们对于互联网企业价值
which is an important starting point for us

进行评估的一个重要的出发点
to evaluate the value of Internet enterprises

事实上, 纵观近20年来
In fact ,over the past 20 years

全世界的互联网产业 ,经历了三次的发展高潮
the Internet industry around the world has experienced

我们可以把它总结为
three peaks of development which can be summarized

三次创业的浪潮
as three waves of entrepreneurship

就像人类社会经历了 三次重大变革一样
just as human society has experienced three major changes

那么这三次重大变革我们 可以
so we can respectively define these three major changes as

分别的定义为农业时代、 工业时代和互联网时代
the agricultural age, the industrial age and the Internet age

农业时代 ,是以黄金和白银作为基础资产
The agricultural era was based on gold and silver

并且黄金和白银也成为农业时代最关键的发展驱动力
which became the most important driving force of the agricultural era

工业时代 ,是以能源和电力作为基础资产
The industrial age, with energy and electricity as its underlying assets

而且也是成为最关键的发展的驱动力
was also the most critical driver of development

而进入互联网时代
In the Internet era

信息和数据成为所有国家进行国际竞争时候的
information and data become the basic assets and driving force

基础资产和发展驱动力
for development in the international competition of all countries

中国有幸在这个互联网时代赶上了潮头
China has been lucky to catch up with the tide in this Internet era

在这三个时代 ,分别对应着不同的技术创新
In these three eras, there are different technological innovations

或者是科技进步或者是重大发明
or technological advances, or major inventions

在互联网时代 ,我们可以总结来说
In the age of the Internet we can conclude that

也有三次重大的变革
there have also been three major changes

第一次就是,我们把它称之为 门户网站时代
the first of which is what we call the age of portals

这个时代大部分的互联网企业是单向的向外提供信息
In this era, most Internet enterprises provide information

是一种单中心的格局
outside in a one-way way which is a single-center pattern

第二个时代 ,可以被总结
The second era can be summed up as

为电子商务和社交网络的时代
the era of e-commerce and social networking

这个时候出现了大量的互联网企业
At this time, a large number of Internet enterprises emerged

呈现出一种多中心的格局
presenting a multi-center pattern

而第三个时代就是在最近几年里面
The third era is the Internet of things artificial intelligence

才出现的物联网 、人工智能、 虚拟现实等等
virtual reality and so on, which only appeared in recent years

这样一些技术所引领的互联网时代
The Internet era led by some technologies is characterized by

它体现出的特征是,万事万物的互联
the interconnection of everything

所以互联网的这个三次重大变革
So the three major changes in the Internet and

跟我们前面讲的这个人类社会的三次变革
the three major changes in human society that we've talked about

在某种程度上也有着一种对应的关系
to some extent have a corresponding relationship

全球互联网企业的第一波创业浪潮
The first wave of entrepreneurship of global Internet companies

发生在上个世纪的90年代到2000年前后
occurred in the 1990s to around 2000

是以美国的网景公司和Yahoo公司为代表
represented by netscape and Yahoo in the United States.

当时,在美国的硅谷又掀起了一波
At that time, another wave of entrepreneurship of Internet companies

互联网企业创业的高潮
was set off in silicon valley in the United States.

到了1995年的时候
By the time netscape went public in 1995

网景公司上市 仅仅只有那一分钟的时间
giving the company a market value of $2.7 billion

就使该公司的市值达到了27亿美元
just in one minute

而这在以前的工业时代或者是农业时代
which was unthinkable in the previous industrial or agricultural era.

根本是不可想象的
or agricultural era

在2000年前后 ,美国的互联网遇到了第一次泡沫危机
Around 2000, the U.S. Internet hit its first bubble

纳斯达克指数在2到3年的时间里面狂跌了78%
and the nasdaq plunged 78% in two to three years

60万个工作岗位和7500亿美元的资产 蒸发掉了
wiping out 600,000 jobs and $750 billion in assets

数千家互联网企业在这一场市场波动的过程中
Thousands of Internet companies have suffered significant losses

遭受了重大的损失
in the course of this market fluctuation

全球互联网企业也经历了
and global Internet companies have also experienced

第一次沉重的打击
the first heavy blow

在这个过程中呢 ,还爆发了非常有名的
Along the way, the famous battle

Netscape和internet explorer的浏览器之争
between Netscape and Internet explorer erupted

其实在企业管理的经典文献中
In fact, in the classic literature of business management

我们经常把这个事情啊
we often think of this

把这个案例当做一个主导技术范式的经典案例
as a classic case of the dominant technology paradigm

因为在当时的时代背景之下 Netscape
Because in the context of the time, Netscape

也就是网景公司, 它已经是用户数量非常大的一个浏览器
was already a browser with a very large number of users

而internet explorer 其实是后起之秀
And Internet explorer is a rising star

但是作为internet explorer的这个东家
but as the owners of Internet explorer

微软公司在全球的互联网或者ICT产业里面
Microsoft has a very important leading position

具有非常重要的一个领先的地位
in global Internet or an ICT industry

那么微软公司就利用它的垄断地位
so Microsoft has used its monopoly position

去把这个internet explorer跟所有的PC机相绑定
to tie all the Internet explorer with PC

使得internet explorer的浏览器
to make Internet explorer browser

后来, 就被规定为所有个人电脑必须安装的浏览器
become the necessary browsers prescribed for all PC later

也就是我们讲的事实标准
which is the DE facto standard Or the dominant

或者是说 ,我们管理学上所讲的主导技术范式
technological paradigm in management we speak later.

而这个Netscape 就被市场逐渐的淘汰了
And Netscape was gradually eliminated from the market

到了2003年的时候，这家公司就被迫的破产
By 2003 the company was forced into bankruptcy

从市场上退出了
and out of the market

所以一个互联网企业能不能在市场上
Therefore, whether an Internet company can become

技术领先转变为市场领先
a market leader in terms of technology

其实是受到很多因素的影响的
is affected by many factors

并不是说你的技术非常好
It does not mean that if your technology is good

你的产品好
and your product is good

你就一定能成为这个市场上最后的胜出者
you will be the last winner in this market

那么,全球互联网企业的第二波创业浪潮呢
The second wave of Internet start-ups

就发生在2003年到2005年之间
happened between 2003 and 2005

是以谷歌公司和Facebook公司为代表
represented by Google and Facebook

在经历了第一次的这个硅谷互联网泡沫破灭之后
After the first burst of the silicon valley Internet bubble

整个硅谷的创业者投资者管理者
entrepreneurs and investors throughout the valley

都进行了深刻的自我反省
have conducted profound self-reflection

随着Facebook的迅速的发展
With the rapid development of Facebook

互联网的企业创业和上市
the second wave of entrepreneurial and public listing of the Internet

迎来了第二波的高潮
has come to a climax

比如说Youtobe Twitter Apple APP等等
Such as Youtobe Twitter Apple APPetc

这些新的企业和商业模式应运而生
these new enterprises and business models have emerged

共同的开创了一个新的互联网社交网络时代
jointly ushering in a new era of Internet social network.

在这个过程中也发生了一些非常重要的
There were some very important milestones

里程碑式的事件
along the way

比如说Facebook收购了Instagram
like Facebook buying Instagram

这个收购的估值啊是10亿美元
which was valued at $1 billion

后来Facebook又花了190亿美元收购了
and then Facebook paying $19 billion

whatsapp这样的一个很小的互联网企业
for a tiny Internet company like whatsapp

其实Instagram和whatsapp
Actually sets and whatsapp

这两家都是用我们中国的这个行业管理的话语来说
the two are with our Chinese words of the industry management

都叫小微企业
all call small micro enterprise

像Instagram被收购的时候, 只有13个员工
like sets was acquired Only 13 employees

whatsapp被收购的时候 ,只有50多个员工
whatsapp was acquired Founded more than 50 employees

然后它们成立的时间 ,也都不是很长
and their listed time is not very long

可是最后, 都以数亿甚至数十亿数百亿（美元）的
but ended up with hundreds of millions or even billions of tens

估值结果被Facebook收购
of billions of valuation results acquired by Facebook

从我们的这个专业角度来说
From our professional point of view

我们就要问一个问题
we're going to ask the question

Instagram为什么值10亿美元?
why is Instagram worth $1 billion?

whatsapp为什么值190亿美元?
Why is whatsapp worth $19 billion?

这个估值结果是怎么样被计算出来的?
How is this estimate calculated?

他们用了哪些估值方法 或者估值的模型?
What valuation methods or valuation models did they use?

在后续的分析过程中 ,我们会跟大家进一步的来揭晓
In the subsequent analysis ,we will tell you more about it

那么进入21世纪
In the 21st century

全球互联网企业就引发了
the global Internet companies have triggered

第三波的创业浪潮
a third wave of entrepreneurship

这一次是以谷歌公司和亚马逊公司为代表
represented by Google and amazon

无人驾驶技术 人工智能
With the rapid rise of unmanned technologies artificial intelligence

VR AR等等这些技术迅速的崛起
VR AR and other technologies

在互联网创业领域 ,引领了新的潮流
Internet startups have led a new trend

与此同时, 在第三波的全球互联网企业创业浪潮中
At the same time , a number of fast-growing global unicorns

诞生了一批快速成长的 全球独角兽企业
were born in the third wave of global Internet entrepreneurship

比如说Uber ,那么它现在的市场估值已经达到了620亿美元
Uber, for example, is now valued at $62 billion

Airbnb 它现在的市场估值达到310亿美元
and Airbnb is now valued at $31 billion

space X估值达到250亿美元 wework估值高达200亿美元
Space X is valued at $25 billion and wework is valued at $20 billion

尤其是这个wework 我们来了解一下
let’s look at wework especially

wework是做联合办公的
Wework is a joint office

那么截至2018年的6月份 wework拥有会员数26.8万人
In June 2018 wework had 268,000 members

这个数据呢比上一年同期要增加一倍还多
more than double the number from a year earlier

目前wework在全球有287个办公楼
It now has 287 offices around the world

入驻率高达84%
and has an occupancy rate of 84 percentup

而一年前它的这个指标才78%
from 78 percent a year ago

所以,wework也是开创了一种
Therefore, wework also initiates

新的创新空间的创业的模式
a new entrepreneurial mode of innovation space

其实,跟这三次创业浪潮紧密相连的
In fact , closely related to these three entrepreneurial waves

就是我们中国的互联网企业
are our Internet companies in China

我们很高兴 在这个互联网的时代
We are pleased that in this age of the Internet

我们没有落后 反而在很多领域里
we are not lagging behind but in many areas

我们是作为追随者和超越者的身份
we are standing as followers and overachievers

站在全球互联网的竞争浪潮之中
in the global Internet wave of competition.

其实在第一次全球互联网的创业浪潮
In fact, in the first wave of global Internet entrepreneurship

也就是门户网站的时代
namely the era of portal websites

中国就诞生了像搜狐、 新浪、 网易等等 这样的一些门户网站
China has been born some portals such as sohu, sina, netease etc.

并且它们先后在境外的资本市场上市
and they have been listed in foreign capital markets successively

在第二次互联网的创业浪潮中
In the second wave of Internet business

也就是电子商务和社交网络的时代
namely the era of e-commerce and social networking

中国诞生了阿里巴巴 新浪微博 百度 腾讯等等
China gave birth to alibaba sina baidu tencent etc

这样的一些互联网企业
Some of these Internet companies

而且这些企业也先后的
and these companies also successively

在资本市场上
in the scale of the capital market

实现了快速的规模扩张和企业的成长
to achieve the rapid expansion and the growth of the enterprise

成为中国互联网企业的佼佼者
become outstanding Chinese Internet companies.

在第三次互联网企业的创业浪潮中
In the third wave of Internet entrepreneurship

就是移动互联网和人工智能所主导的这个时代
which is dominated by mobile Internet and artificial intelligence

我们中国出现了像滴滴出行 、小米
some Internet enterprises such as didi chuxing, xiaomi, Meituan review

美团点评 蚂蚁金服 陆金所等等 这样的一些互联网企业
ant financial service and lufax have emerged in China

树立了中国互联网企业的这个新形式和新样板
setting up this new form and model of Chinese Internet enterprises

中央电视台在2014年拍摄了一系列的纪录片
CCTV in 2014 filmed a series of documentary

其中包括了一个叫做《互联网时代》的纪录片
including a documentary called "the age of the Internet”

对于我们刚才所讲的, 全球互联网时代的三次变革
reporting and analyzing the three times

三次创业的浪潮
of the era of global Internet change we just talked about

以及在其中中国的互联网企业
three times the wave of entrepreneurship

创业创新的这些典型的样本
innovation and these typical samples

都做了非常深刻的报道和分析
in China's Internet start-up business

我强烈的推荐大家, 有时间的时候去看一下这部纪录片
I strongly recommend you to see the film if you have free time

这节的内容就到这里, 谢谢!
That's it ,thank you!