Video在线视频

同学们大家好
Hello students

今天由我来带领大家了解一下资产评估
Today let me bring you a very basic method of asset valuation

一种非常基本的方法叫做收益法
called the income method

接下来是由收益法所引申出来的
The following is a summary of the expected discounted cash flow

在企业价值评估当中的
method in the enterprise value assessment

预期现金流折现法的一些大致内容
which is derived from the income method

在讲解这些具体内容之前
Before explaining these specific contents,

我们先来想一想我们大家
let us first think about

在日常生活当中的一种购物习惯
a shopping habit in daily life

那就是当我们决定要去购买一样商品的时候
When we decide to buy the same goods,

我们总是要在心里打打算盘
we always have to think about

我们拿到这项商品之后
what kind of benefits

给我们会带来什么样的好处
we will get from the product

比如说我有了这样商品
For example, such a product

能够让我的生活变得更加便利
can make my life more convenient

或者说我拥有这样一项商品之后
or when I have such a product,

在外人看来会觉得我这个人形象上变得更好
others think that I am better in image

总之我在购买这项商品的时候
In short, when I buy this product,

一定是因为这项商品能够给我带来好处
it must be because this product can bring me benefits

那么将这样一种思想放在投资这个行为上的时候
Then when we put this kind of thinking on investment behavior,

我们一定会这样想
we must think this way

那就是当我在对这项资产进行投资的时候
When I invest in this asset,

一定是考虑到这项资产
I must consider that this asset will

会在未来给我带来收益
bring me benefits in the future

那么未来的收益越高
Then the higher the future earnings,

我可能愿意为它所付出的成本也就越高
the higher the cost I might be willing to pay for it

这样一种思想最后就被我们凝结成了
This kind of thought was finally condensed into

资产评估当中的收益法
the income method in asset valuation

收益法是指什么？
What is the income method?

就是指通过评估被评估资产未来的
It means to estimate all the costs we are willing to

预期收益的现值来得出我们当前愿意
pay for this asset by assessing the present value of

为这项资产所支付的所有成本
the expected future return of the asset being assessed

那么这样一种投资的思想
The idea of this kind of investment,

通俗点讲叫做将力求本
in general, is called the principle of seeking income

或者叫做预期收益原理
or the principle of expected return

任何一个理智的投资者
Any reasonable investor who decides to

在决定为这项资产付出一定成本的时候
pay a certain cost for this asset must

那一定要考虑到它未来的收益
take into account its future earnings

并且愿意支出的成本肯定不会高出
and the cost of willingness to pay will certainly

这项资产在未来所给我
not be higher than the benefits that

带来的收益的总和
this asset will bring to me in the future

如果说高于了那可能这是一个亏本的生意
it may be a loss-making business

好，那么这样一种方法
Well, if it is higher than that

我们在使用它的时候
So what should we pay attention to

需要注意什么呢？
when using this method?

我们有这样三个前提
We have these three premises

第一这项资产能够独立的获利
First, this asset can be profited independently

并且这个收益额能够进行预测
and this amount of income can be predicted

并且用货币衡量
and measured in currency

换句话说就是收益可以量化
In other words, the benefits can be quantify

第二点，为了获得这项预期收益
Second, in order to obtain this expected return

那么当然我们说风险越大收益越高
we say that the greater the risk the higher the return

那么在我们获得收益的时候
then the risk that is willing to pay

所愿意支出的风险也应该是能够进行预测
is also predictable when measured

并且用货币衡量的
and measured in currency

第三点那就是这项资产我在拥有了它之后
Third, after I own this asset

一定会存在一个所谓的年限问题
there will be a problem with the age

或者说叫做预期收益年限
or the expected income period

那么这个年限本身也应该是可以预测的
Then the age itself should be predictable

那么就出现了我们在收益法使用过程中
Then there are three important parameters that are needed

所需要的三个重要的参数
in the process of using the income method

第一个预期收益额
First, expected income

第二，折现率
Second, the discount rate

第三，获利年限
Third, the profit period

这三个重要的参数
These three important parameters

我们再具体去为它设定一定值的时候呢还有个要求
We have a request when we set a certain value for it

第一个关于预期收益额
The first one is about the expected amount of income

这里的关键词在于两个
The key words here are two

第一预期，第二收益
the first expectation, the second gain

所谓的预期那就是说我不能简单的
The so-called expectation is that I can't simply understand

将这项资产在过去发生的所有收益
all the benefits of this asset in the past

简单的理解成它在未来也会是这么多
simply understand that it will be so much in the future

那就是说我只能根据当前的收益
That is to say, I can only reasonably predict

合理地进行预测
based on current earnings

给出这项资产在未来的一个数值大小
giving a value for this asset in the future

可高可低
which can be high or low

第二个小问题就是所谓的收益是指什么
The second small question is what is the so-called income

我们要求的是这一项资产的一个客观收益
What we are asking for is the objective benefit of this asset

而不是当前的收益来进行判断
not the current income

这一点比较好理解了
This is a better understanding

比如说我们在一个市场上进行房租的一个判断的时候
For example, when we judge the rent in a market,

你就会发现，有的房屋房租高
you will find that some houses are rented high

有的房屋房租低
and some houses are rented low

那是不是因为是这项房子本身好或者不好呢？
Is it because the house itself is good or bad?

也不一定
Not necessarily

因为他可能取决于宏观经济的情况
It may depend on the macroeconomic situation

宏观经济好，房租可能就高了
the macro economy is good, the rent may be high

宏观经济比较差，房租可能就低
relatively poor, and the rent may be low

这个时候你会发现
At this time you will find that

这项资产的收益不仅仅取决于这项资产本身
the benefits of this asset depend not only on the asset itself

它可能取决于一些市场大环境以及其他因素
but on the market environment and other factors

所以我们在确定这项资产的收益额的时候
Therefore, when determining the amount of income of this asset,

要根据的是客观收益
it is based on objective income

而不能说仅仅因为
It cannot be said that just because

这项资产在今年收益是多少
the income of this asset is this year

我们就认为它在未来也是多少
we think it is also how much it will be in the future

所以我们叫预期收益额
So we call the expected amount of income

第二点，折现率的问题
Second, the problem of discount rate

我们在讲到折现的时候
When we talk about discounting,

说它反映的是一种风险
we say that it reflects a kind of risk

那么这个风险我们该怎么理解？
So how should we understand this risk?

它又会分为两个层面
It will be divided into two levels

第一个层面是说我们即使不投资
The first level is that we don’t invest,

我们将钱存在银行里边
we put money in the bank

其实我们的钱也会我们带来一定的收益ll
In fact, our money will bring us some income

这个是我放在银行里边
This is what I put in the bank

你可以理解为是一种相对来说无风险的收益
you can understand it is a relatively risk-free income

那么如果我决定进行投资的时候
Then if I decide to invest

将钱取出来放到一个特定市场上之后
after I take the money out and put it in a specific market,

你就会发现我的收益确实变高了
you will find that my income is indeed getting higher

但这个时候我所承担的风险也变大了
But at this time, the risks I have taken are also getting bigger

那么折现率在我们这里
Then the discount rate actually

其实就包含了两层意思
contains two layers of meaning here

第一层我们叫做无风险的收益
The first layer we call risk-free income

第二层意思就是根据这项资产
The second layer means that according to

所本身对应的行业
the industry corresponding to the asset itself,

它可能有一个特殊的风险的叠加
it may have a special risk overlay

所以我们在对折现率进行数值设定的时候
Therefore, when setting the discount rate,

必须考虑这两方面的因素
you must consider these two factors

第三个我们说叫做获利年限的问题
Third, we are called the problem of profitability

这个获利年限呢 我们就可以想一想
We can think about this profitable period

虽然说一家公司我们出于美好的愿望吧
Although we say that a company wants it to run forever,

希望它能够永远地运行下去
because of its good wishes

可有时候你不得不考虑这家公司
sometimes we have to consider that this company

确实存在一个可获利年限的问题
does have a profitable problem

这个年限可长可短
This period can be long or short

那我们该怎么来求解呢？
so how can we solve it?

这个时候我们可以不妨做一个同样美好的愿望
At this time, we may wish to make an equally good wish

那就是假设它确实能够永远地运行下去
that is, suppose it can indeed run forever

那当然有个前提了
Of course, there is a premise

如果这家公司
If the company gave its operational life

由于它在创立之初就给出了它的一个运营年限
at the beginning of its establishment,

那这个时候我们就不得不
then we have to specifically limit

根据相应的合同、法律法规
the mutual profitability to a limited value

来具体的将这个互获利年限给在一个有限值范围内
according to the corresponding contract laws and regulations

所以获利年限也需要我们的
Therefore, the profit-making years also require

具体问题具体分析
specific analysis of our specific problems

通过这三个要素或者说是重要的参数
Through these three elements, or important parameters

最后就会对应在
Finally, it will correspond to

我们讲到的收益法的一个公式上面去
a formula in the income method we talked about

关于这项公式以及
For the solution of this formula

这个公式的相应参数的求解
and the corresponding parameters of this formula

我们放在下一节内容来介绍
we put it in the next section to introduce