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好 ,在讨论了斗鱼tv和今日头条的
Well ,after discussing the corporate value of

企业价值之后
douyu TV and today's headlines

我们再来看一下,蚂蚁金服这一家互联网企业
let's take a look at ant financial an Internet company

我们该选用什么样的方法来对它进行估值分析
and what methods should be used to evaluate it

前面两家企业
Because both of the first two enterprises are

因为都是网络流量特征特别明显的
particularly prominent in network traffic characteristics

所以我们都选用了DEVA的模型
we chose DEVA's model

对于蚂蚁金服 ,首先我们要了解
For ant financial, the first thing we need to know is

它是一家什么样的企业
what kind of enterprise it is

我们分四部分,来介绍一下蚂蚁金服这家公司
Let's talk about ant financial in four parts

首先, 蚂蚁金服是起步于2004年成立的支付宝
First, ant financial was established from alipay in 2004

在2013年的3月份, 支付宝的母公司
In March 2013, the parent company of alipay

也就是阿里巴巴集团
namely alibaba group

宣布以支付宝为主体
announced the establishment of a small

来筹建小微金融服务集团
and micro financial service group with alipay as the main body

然后到2014年的10月16号的时候
Then, on October 16 2014

这个小微金融的服务集团
this small and micro financial service group

就更名为蚂蚁金服
was renamed as ant financial

所以,你看啊蚂蚁金服 成立至今
so you can see that ant financial has been established

也还不到五年的时间 也就四年左右
for less than five years about four years

这家企业是专注于
This enterprise focuses on serving

服务小微企业和普通消费者
small and micro businesses and ordinary consumers

那么它旗下的业务,主要包括了支付宝、支付宝钱包、 余额宝
so its business mainly includes alipay, alipay wallet, yu e bao

招财宝、 蚂蚁小贷和网商银行等
zhaocaibao, ant small loan and online commercial bank

蚂蚁金服的集团旗下, 有以下的这样一些品牌
The group of ant financial service has the following brands

支付宝、 芝麻信用、 蚂蚁小贷、 余额宝、 招财宝等等
alipay, sesame credit, ant small loan, yu 'ebao, zhaopaibao and so on

蚂蚁金服致力于 打造一个开放的生态
Ant financial is committed to creating an open ecology

与金融机构一起 ,共同的为消费者投资者
and providing financial services to consumer investors

提供金融的服务
together with financial institutions

它所倡导的理念是“让信用等于财富”
The concept it advocates is "let credit equal wealth"

它的创始人呢叫彭蕾
Its founder is peng lei

彭蕾 1994年毕业于浙江工商大学
Peng lei graduated from zhejiang gongshang university in 1994

主修工商管理专业
majoring in business administration

毕业以后, 先在浙江财经大学
After graduation, she first worked in education

从事了五年的教育工作
in zhejiang university of finance and economics for five years

所以可以说 ,这个彭蕾以前也跟我是同行
Therefore , it can be said that Peng lei was a colleague with me before

也是大学教师
and a college teacher

只不过后来, 她选择了下海创业
but later ,she chose to start her own entrepreneurship

1999年 彭蕾就下海加入了阿里巴巴
Peng lei joined alibaba in 1999

她是阿里巴巴创业的 十八罗汉之一
as one of the 18 arhats of Chinese entrepreneurs

到2015年的6月份, 彭蕾任蚂蚁金服的董事长
By June 2015, Peng lei was the chairman the CEO of ant financial

兼CEO,主要负责集团的战略制定
mainly responsible for the group's strategy formulation

和人才管理
and talent management

一直到2018年的4月9日
It was not until April 9 2018

彭蕾才从蚂蚁金服的董事长任上卸下
that Peng lei was removed from the position of chairman of ant financial

新的CEO和董事长, 叫井贤栋
The new CEO and chairman was named Jing xiandong

这个信息我们都可以从蚂蚁金服的官方网站上了解到
This information can be learned from the official website of ant financial

第二部分 ,我们了解一下
In the second part, we will learn about

蚂蚁金服的发展历程
the development process of ant financial

主要是它融资的这个历程
mainly the process of its financing

从2014年至今
Since 2014

它已经先后接受了近十轮的风投的注入
it has received nearly ten rounds of venture capital investment

中间也发生过一些
and some major changes and adjustments

重大的变革和调整
have taken place in the process

那么到2018年的6月8日呢
On June 8, 2018

蚂蚁金服完成了新一轮的融资
ant financial completed a new round of financing

这一次的融资金额高达140亿美元
up to $14 billion this time

而且这一轮是F轮 ,也就是上市前的融资
and this round is round F which is the pre-ipo financing

那么这轮融资的目的
The purpose of this round of financing is

主要是帮助阿里巴巴和蚂蚁金服公司
to help alibaba and ant financial to carry out global business

在一带一路的相关国家 ,来开展全球化业务
in relevant countries of One Belt And One Road

提升支付宝及其合作伙伴
improve alipay and its partners

向全球消费者和小微企业
and provide inclusive financial services to global consumers

提供普惠金融服务的能力
and small and micro businesses

好 ,那么蚂蚁金服 ,作为一家互联网企业
Ok , ant financial is an Internet enterprise

而且尤其它是互联网企业里面
and in particular, it is an Internet technology type enterprise

互联网科技类型的企业
within the Internet enterprise

它的互联网企业特征
Its Internet enterprise characteristics

主要体现在以下的三个方面
are mainly embodied in the following three aspects

第一个，就是它的平台特征非常的明显。
The first is that its platform characteristics are very obvious

蚂蚁金服主要是
Ant financial mainly builds

搭建一个具有开放和共享特征的
an open and shared credit system and financial service platform

信用体系和金融服务平台 来为小微企业提供金融服务
to provide financial services for small and micro businesses

比如说它旗下的支付宝
For example,alipay

从2004年成立至今
since its establishment in 2004

到2015年底已经与超过200家的金融机构
by the end of 2015 has reached cooperation agreements

达成了合作协议
with over 200 financial institutions

为近千万家小微商户
providing payment services for

提供的支付的服务
nearly 10 million small and micro businesses

拓展的服务场景也不断增加
and expanding service scenarios

我觉得说这些话 ,你可能觉得太官方了
I think these words maybe too official for you

其实就是说,我们去菜市场买菜也要用支付宝
in fact we go to the vegetable market also need to use alipay

然后在街头买一个烤红薯也要用支付宝
then in the street to buy a baked sweet potato also need to use alipay

这不就很好理解了吗 ?对吧?
this is very easy to understand ? Isn't it?

好, 那么截止到2015年年底
Ok, so by the end of 2015

其实蚂蚁金服已经有 超过4亿的实名用户
ant financial had more than 400 million real name users

为全国的370座城市 提供了综合服务 超过了4000项
providing comprehensive services to over 4000 cities in China

所以你看现在, 我们可以足不出户
So you can see now we can pay electricity fee

用支付宝交电费、 水费、 煤气费， 对吧？
water fee, gas fee without leaving the door right

然后呢我们也可以用支付宝
Then we can also use alipay to

去查询我们的户口办好了没有
inquire about whether our account has been done

身份证办好没有
Have id card done well?

我们的这个车子的违章 有没有消掉等等
Did the violation of our car cancel out and so on

那这些城市生活的服务
Then these services of city life are

都是跟支付宝的这样一个平台功能联系在一起的
connected with such a platform function of alipay

蚂蚁金服的第二个互联网企业的特征
The second characteristic of ant financial's internet enterprise

就是它是用技术创新
is that it uses technological innovation

来提升用户的体验
to improve users' experience

支付的核心是解决用户需求
and the core of payment is to solve users' demands

那么怎样又快又安全地
How to realize the trust of the user quickly and safely

实现用户的所托是支付的立身之本
is the foundation of payment

怎样控制风险呢?
How to control risk?

这又是互联网加金融界关注的头等大事
This is again the top priority concern of the Internet and finance industry

所以 ,支付宝现在特别强调
So, alipay has been particularly emphasized

风险控制的智能化
the intelligence of risk control now

截至目前来看 ,它的防范效果还是不错的
So far its protective effect is good

蚂蚁金服就是运用了人工智能
Ant gold suit is the use of artificial intelligence

以及大数据技术, 来实现问题的自动判断和预测
and big data technology to realize automatic judgment and forecast

可以识别到用户的身份信息
to the user's identity information can be recognized

客户端也有用户的行为逻辑
the client has the user's behavior logic

就可以知道用户是在哪个环节遇到了障碍
you can know that the user is met obstacles

在哪里停住了
in which link the user stop

然后在最短的时间里面提出解决方案
and then propose solutions in the shortest possible time

来帮助用户解决
to help users solve

第三个互联网的特征
The third feature of the Internet is

就是说, 蚂蚁金服拥有巨大的信息入口
that ant financial has a huge information portal

这个在前面,我们其实已经提到过
We have already mentioned this before

蚂蚁金服所主导的网商银行
the e-bank which is dominated by ant financial

以及它的前身阿里小贷
and its predecessor ali small loan

多年来
Over the years

就通过大数据模型的积累, 来发放贷款
loans have been made through the accumulation of big data models

蚂蚁金服 ,通过对客户相关数据的分析
Ant financial has formed a mode of "310" for online loans

依照相关的模型, 综合判断风险
by analyzing relevant customer data

形成了网络贷款的“310”的模式
and comprehensively judging risks according to relevant models

与此同时 ,它也运用大数据
Meanwhile, it also uses big data

在它的第三方征信——芝麻信用中
to reflect the Internet characteristics of this enterprise

去体现这个企业的互联网特征
in its third-party credit investigation -- sesame credit

芝麻信用分, 是芝麻信用对海量信息数据
Sesame credit score is a result of the comprehensive processing

进行综合处理和评估的一个结果
and evaluation of massive information data by sesame credit

使得蚂蚁金服具有了
which makes ant financial has the advantage

其他互联网企业不具有的
of such a credit investigation platform

这样的一个征信平台和大数据的优势
and big data that other Internet enterprises do not have

好, 那么我们讨论到蚂蚁金服的企业价值评估
Ok, so when we're talking about ant financial's valuation

在这个案例上我们就摒弃了 DEVA的模型
in this case we're moving away from the DEVA model

而选用了市盈率比较法
and into the price-to-earnings comparison

为什么要这么做呢?
Why would we do that?

其实 在我跟我的研究生
Actually , when I was discussing the ant gold suit valuation model

讨论这个蚂蚁金服的估值模型和估值方法选择的时候
and valuation method choice with my graduate student

我们一开始
at first

是尝试着用预期现金流折现法
we were trying to use the expected discounted cash flow technique

也就是情景化的DCF方法
which is contextualized DCF model method

但是后来发现有点困难
but later we found it a bit difficult

因为蚂蚁金服 ,现在还没有上市
because the ant gold suit now haven't listed

那么它有一些核心的财务数据以及它的营收
so it has some of the core of financial data, its revenue

或者成本 ,或者风险这个数据还没有对外公开
cost and risk not been made public

并且 我们就想到说用DEVA的模型
and then we thought of using the model of the DEVA

但是蚂蚁金服跟我们前面所讲的
but the ant financial is different from

今日头条或者是斗鱼网站, 不太一样的是
today’s headlines or douyu TV that we discussed before

它并不是一个依靠用户流量来创造价值的
It is not a business that relies on user traffic to create value

它的创造价值的方式跟前面两个企业 是很不一样的
and the way it creates value is very different from the previous two

然后我们就参考了 国际上的投行
Then we referred to the international investment Banks

对蚂蚁金服进行估值的一个方法
on the valuation of ant financial

也就是用, 市盈率比较法
namely the price-to-earnings ratio method

那我们就需要选择一些对标的企业对吧
So we need to choose some of the right companies, right?

那在这个过程中 ,我们还是基于蚂蚁金服
In the process, we also made a forecast on the development trend

在2015年公开的这个财务数据
of ant financial's net profit based on the financial data

以及最近几年一些第三方的投资机构
disclosed by ant financial in 2015 and some forecast studies

或者是研究机构对蚂蚁金服的
on ant financial by third-party investment institutions

一些预测研究
or research institutions

对它的净利润的发展趋势, 做了一个预测
in recent years

根据2015年它披露的数据
According to the data it disclosed in 2015

蚂蚁金服2015年的 营收是249亿人民币
ant financial's revenue in 2015 was 24.9 billion yuan

它的净利润是48.75亿
and its net profit was 4.875 billion yuan

然后2016年它的营收是320.78亿
Then in 2016, its revenue was 320.78 billion

净利润是76.8亿 ,这个营收增长幅度是29%
and its net profit was 7.68 billion. The revenue growth was 29%

营业净利润的增长幅度呢 达到了24%
and the operating net profit increased by 24%

好, 那么在这两个数据基础上
Well, on the basis of these two data

结合其它的一些 第三方机构的数据
combined with the data of some other third-party institutions

我们就预测到 了
we predicted that

2017年和2018年, 蚂蚁金服的净利润大约是达到了207.78亿
the net profit of ant financial in 2017 and 2018 was about 20.778 billion

净利润的同比增长是67%
the net profit increased by 67% year on year

营业净利率的增长是37%
and the net operating interest rate increased by 37%

好 ,那么有了这样一些数据
Ok, so with that kind of data

我们再来选择一些 可比公司
let's take a look at some of the comparable companies

看一下蚂蚁金服 ,跟那些可比公司相比
and look at what ant financial's price-to-earnings ratio will be

它的市盈率能达到什么样的水平
compared to those comparable companies

因为 蚂蚁金服是一家金融科技公司
Because ant financial is a fintech company

而金融科技公司的重点是
and the focus of fintech companies is

互联网用户的经营理念
the business philosophy of Internet users

它的核心技术以及它的关键数据
its core technology and its key data

同时蚂蚁金服又是一家开放的金融科技公司
At the same time ant financial is an open financial technology company

这使得它的技术, 具有技术服务公司的属性
which makes its technology as a technical service company

根据这三点, 我们就对蚂蚁金服选择了
according to these three points, we chose three comparable companies

微软 Paypal和腾讯 这三家可比公司 作为对标的企业
as to the target enterprise Microsoft Paypal and Tencent

这三家已经上市的互联网企业的市盈率
the latest p/e ratio of these three listed Internet companies

最近的市盈率 分别是67 37和28倍
were 67 37and 28 timesrespectively

我们就运用市盈率比较法分别用
we can use p/e ratio comparison method

67、28和37去乘以
respectively using 67 28and 37 times

前面我们预测的2018年的
to munipulate 20.778 billion

蚂蚁金服的净利润207.78亿
the net profit of ant financial we forcasted before

就得到13921.26亿和5817.84亿和7687.86亿
and then we get 13921.26 581.784 768.786 billion

然后, 我们对这三个数据
Then we took the arithmetic mean of the three data

取算术平均值,得到9142.32亿元
and got 914.232 billion yuan

折合成美元的话, 大约是1321亿美元
or about 132.1 billion dollars in us dollars

也就是
That is to say

我们用市盈率比较法
after we chose by comparing the price-to-earnings ratio

选择了微软、 腾讯和Paypal这三家可比公司以后
Microsoft, tencent and Paypal as the three comparable companies

对蚂蚁金服的企业价值做出的分析结果, 是1320亿美元
our analysis of the enterprise value of ant financial is 132 billion dollars

那我们对比来看一下,《互联网趋势报告》
Then we take a look at the latest trend of the Internet report

最近的一期, 对蚂蚁金服的估值是在150 billion
the valuation of ant financial is at $150

也就是1500亿美元
or $150 billion

而我们的这个估值结果
and our valuation results of ant financial is relatively close to

跟国际市场对蚂蚁金服的这样的一个估值规模, 是比较接近的
the results of the international market

这也说明我们的分析还是比较靠谱的
it also suggests that our analysis is reasonable to some extent

当然是不是靠谱还要市场说了算
of course it depends on market

所以, 我们关于蚂蚁金服的这样的一个案例分析,就到这里结束
so a case analysis of the gold service is to end here

谢谢
Thank you very much!