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大家好
Hello everyone

今天我们一起来探讨互联网企业的价值源泉
today we will discuss the value source of Internet companies

在对互联网企业的价值进行评估的时候
When assessing the value of Internet companies

我们首先要搞清楚互联网企业的价值来源是什么？
we must first understand what is the source of value for Internet companies?

我们讲到互联网企业
When we talk about Internet companies

他创造价值的模式改变了
his model of creating value has changed

但是它并没有改变价值的定义
but it has not changed the definition of value

那么价值由什么因素决定？
So what is the value determined by?

通过我们前面讲解的价值评估模型
Through the value evaluation model we explained earlier

我们可以看到企业的价值有三个决定因素
we can see that the value of the enterprise has three determinants

一个是盈利性
The one is profitability

一个是企业的增长
the other is enterprise growth

第三个是企业的风险
and the third is enterprise risk

互联网企业，我们讲它不改变价值的定义
Internet companies, we say that it does not change the definition of value

因此互联网企业价值的这三个决定因素也是不变的
so the three determinants of Internet enterprise value are also unchanged

但是这三个因素与传统的企业相比
But these three factors may have new features

可能有新的特点
compared to traditional companies

我们讲企业价值由盈利性决定
We say that corporate value is determined by profitability

但是我们看到很多的互联网企业
But we have seen a lot of Internet companies

特别是早期的互联网企业
especially early Internet companies

它并不盈利
which are not profitable

它的市场交易价值很高
but they have high market transactions

或者大家对它的估值很高
or have high valuations for them

这背后事实上是一个短期与长期盈利预期的关系
This is actually a short-term and long-term profit forecasting relationship

虽然这些企业短期不盈利
Although these companies are not profitable in the short term

但是由于互联网的一些特征
due to some characteristics of the Internet

使得大家对这一类互联网企业
the expectations for long-term profitability

它长期盈利的预期是比较高的
of this type of Internet companies are relatively high

第二个就是增长
The second is growth

企业价值的创造和企业价值的增长
The creation of corporate value and the growth of corporate value

是由企业收益的增长带来的
are brought about by the growth of corporate income

当然是不是企业的增长越快
Of course, is the faster the growth of the enterprise

企业价值就一定高呢？
the higher the value of the enterprise?

不一定
Not necessarily

在我们的价值评估模型当中
In our value assessment model

它背后隐含着一个很重要的条件
there is a very important condition behind it

就是企业的投资回报要大于资本成本
the return on investment of the enterprise is greater than the cost of capital

如果我投资企业的资金
If I invest in the company's funds

获得的回报还低于我的资本成本
the return is lower than my capital cost

也就意味着从资产的投资当中所取得的收益
which means that the income from the investment in the assets

还弥补不了取得这些资本所付出的成本的话
cannot make up the cost of obtaining the capital

增长的越快
the faster the growth

企业的价值就越低
the enterprise The lower the value

因此有人说
Therefore, some people say that

对互联网企业虽然它当前亏损
although the Internet company is currently losing money

当前不盈利
it is currently not profitable

但是我看好它的成长性
but I am optimistic about its growth

我看好它未来能够快速的增长
and I am optimistic that it will grow rapidly in the future

当我们去考察这些企业
When we look at these companies

可以看到在短期内
we can see that in the short term

它的投资回报可能是很低的
its return on investment may be very low

但一定是预期到它远期的投资回报
But it must be expected that its long-term return on investment

一定能超过它的资本成本，那么这种增长才是有效的
must exceed its cost of capital, then this growth is effective

第三个，就是关于盈利和增长
The third is about profit and growth

它面临风险，是有不确定性的
It is risky and uncertain

因为我们谈盈利性
Because we talk about profitability

谈增长都是基于对未来的预期既然是对未来的预期
and talk about growth are based on expectations of the future

它就不是事实
Since it is an expectation of the future, it is not a fact

它都有不确定性
It has uncertainty

这种不确定性就是企业价值创造的风险
This kind of uncertainty is the risk of enterprise value creation

我们在进行企业价值评估的过程中
In the process of conducting enterprise value assessment

如果只看到盈利性、只看到增长
if we only see profitability and only see growth

那么企业的价值可能就是没有上限的
then the value of the enterprise may have no upper limit

但事实上是不可能的
but in fact, it is impossible

它一定会受到盈利性和增长
It will definitely be faced by profitability and growth

面临的风险和不确定性的制约
Risk and uncertainty constraints

只有综合考虑这三个因素
Only by considering these three factors comprehensively

我们才能合理判断企业的价值
we can reasonably judge the value of the company

关于互联网企业
Regarding Internet companies

虽然影响企业价值的驱动因素不变
although the driving factors affecting corporate value remain unchanged

但是我们讲到互联网企业的商业逻辑可能发生了变化
But we talked about the changes in the business logic of Internet companies

跟传统的企业相比
Compared with traditional enterprises

它利用或依托互联网的特性
it uses or relies on the characteristics of the Internet

创造新的商业模式
to create new business models

我们可以看到互联网企业它通常有三类商业逻辑
We can see that Internet companies usually have three types of business logic

第一类就是直接面向用户出售商品或者服务
The first category is to sell goods or services directly to users

比方说我们看到的京东、天猫，这样一类企业
For example, we see Jingdong, Tmall, such a type of enterprise

搭建一个网络平台
build a network platform

然后利用网络去出售某种商品和服务
and then use the network to sell certain goods and services

当然传统的企业也在向用户提供产品和服务
Of course, traditional companies are also offering products and services to users

但是我们讲互联网企业
But we talk about Internet companies

它是利用互联网的特性来构建平台
which use the characteristics of the Internet to build platforms

向用户来提供产品和服务
that provide products and services to users

而不仅仅是把互联网作为一种渠道
not just the Internet as a channel

去提供产品和服务
to provide products and services

这是我们讲的第一类互联网企业的逻辑
This is the logic of the first type of Internet company we are talking about

第二类就是通过这种平台或者生态
The second type is to provide some products and services

向用户免费提供一些产品和服务
to users free of charge through this platform or ecology

然后通过另外一部分提供付费的增值服务来获得盈利
then obtain profit by using another part of the paid value-added services

比方说典型的百度，你用百度
For example, typical Baidu, you use Baidu

搜索你不需要付费
you do not need to pay for searching

但是它基于搜索提供了很多其它收费的服务
but it provides a lot of other paid services based on search

比如微信，大家也是免费使用的
For example, WeChat, everyone is also free to use

但是微信提供了很多的增值服务
but WeChat provides a lot of value-added services

金融服务等等
such as financial services and so on

还有像早期的360，它通过软件免费
And like the early 360, it is free through software

但是有其他的增值服务
but there are other value-added services

它通过免费集聚了大量的用户
it provides a lot of users free of charge

对这些用户再提供增值服务来盈利
and then provide value-added services to these users to make a profit

所以这样一类商业逻辑
So such a type of business logic

是很多互联网企业经常采取的一种模式
is a model that many Internet companies often adopt

第三类，就是通过向用户提供产品和服务
The third category is to provide users with products and services

然后积累了大量的用户
and then accumulate a large number of users

积累了大量的访问流量和数据
accumulate a large amount of access traffic and data

然后引入第三方来变现
and then introduce third parties to realize

当然引入第三方来变现
Of course, the method of using third parties to cash in

有很多种不同的变现模式
there are many different monetization modes

可能是基于流量和数据进行的变现
may be based on the flow and data to achieve

比方说阿里巴巴
such as Alibaba

马云曾经就说阿里巴巴它不是一个电商公司
Jack Ma once said that Alibaba is not an e-commerce company

是一个数据公司
it is a data company

是基于这些数据，然后去进行衍伸
based on these data, and then to carry out the extension

来进行变现
to make money

当然还有一些比如像今日头条、新浪微博
Of course, there are some, for example, Toutiao, Weibo

它提供了一个社交的平台
which provides a social platform

社交平台积累了大量的访问流量和数据
the social platform has accumulated a large amount of access traffic and data

然后通过广告等其他的收费模式进行变现
and then get profits through other charging modes such as advertising

这是我们讲的互联网企业通常的商业逻辑
This is the usual business logic of the Internet companies we talk about

当然互联网行业也在快速的演进和变化
Of course, the Internet industry is also rapidly evolving and changing

因为互联网使得商业的创新不断涌现
Because the Internet has made business innovations continue to emerge

也在不断地涌现或演进出
new business logic and business models

一些新的商业逻辑和商业模式
are constantly emerging or evolving

基于这些新的商业逻辑和商业模式
Based on this new business logic and business models

我们可以看到互联网企业的价值驱动因素虽然不变
we can see that the value drivers of Internet companies remain the same

但是这些价值驱动因素背后
but the factors or characteristics behind these value

所依赖的这些要素或者这些特点
drivers may be different from traditional ones

比方说在盈利性方面
For example, in terms of profitability

一个企业的盈利性通常表现于两个方面
the profitability of a company usually manifests in two aspects

一个就是更高的溢价能力
the one is higher premium ability

第二个就是更低的成本
the second is lower cost

互联网企业，它一定是利用网络的这种特性
Internet companies must use the characteristics of the network

来获取差异定价的能力，来获取更低的成本效益
to obtain the ability to differentiate pricing to achieve lower cost-effectiveness

能够提高整个行业
It can increase the efficiency of the entire industry

提高整个社会的效率来获得盈利

第二就是关于增长
The second is about growth

互联网企业的增长与传统企业的增长
the growth of Internet companies and the growth of traditional enterprises

它有差异
it is different

互联网企业的增长可能是非线性
The growth of Internet companies may be non-linear

为什么互联网企业会是非线性（增长）
Why are Internet companies nonlinear (growth)?

它依托的是网络特性
It relies on the characteristics of the network

往往因为网络效应
Often because of the network effect

使得互联网企业的增长在某一阶段
the growth of the Internet enterprise at a certain stage

例如早期阶段可能获取的网络效应比较低
such as the early stage, may have a relatively low network effect

一旦达到一个临界点
Once a critical point is reached

网络效应可能会导致呈指数级的增长
the network effect may lead to exponentially growth

第二个就是利用网络
The second is to use the network

使得我们传统企业所遇到的时空范围
so that the time and space range encountered by our traditional enterprises

会大大的加大
will be greatly increased

比方说长尾效应
For example, the long tail effect

利用网络，互联网企业可以获得更大的长尾效应
With the Internet, Internet companies can achieve greater long tail effects

从而实现增长
and achieve growth

互联网企业的第三个价值驱动因素就是风险
The third value driver for Internet companies is the risk

我们前面也讲
As we mentioned before

互联网企业它处于不同的演进阶段
Internet companies are at different stages of evolution

不同的生命周期阶段，面临的风险是不同的
and different life cycle stages, and the risks are different

特别是对互联网企业价值进行分析评估的时候
In particular, when analyzing and evaluating the value of Internet companies

我们要注意，它可能会面临赢家通吃的风险
we must note that it may face the risk of winners taking all the risks

所谓赢家通吃，就是获得第一的领先的企业
The so-called winners are the first leading companies

会使得整个市场上的要素、用户
which will make the elements and users of the entire market

统统向领先的企业集聚
gather in the leading enterprises

其他的企业在和领先的企业竞争当中具有非常大的劣势
Other companies have a very big disadvantage in competing with leading companies

很难再去超越这个赢家
and it is difficult to go beyond this winner

这种赢家通吃的效应
This kind of winner-take-all effect

使得我们在对互联网企业进行分析
makes us pay attention to this risk when analyzing Internet companies

特别是早期的互联网企业进行分析的时候要去关注这种风险
especially when analyzing early Internet companies

当然当这个产业已经演进到规模化
Of course, when the industry has evolved to the stage of scale

或者是集聚的阶段
or agglomeration

整个产业已经有企业的模式被验证
the entire industry has already been verified by the enterprise model

逐步成熟之后，产业当中现存的企业
After the gradual maturity, the existing enterprises in the industry

它可能已经巩固了这种优势或者比较稳定
may have consolidated this advantage or are relatively stable

（企业）风险降低。但是早期的阶段
The risk is reduced. But in the early stages

企业的分化可能会很大
the differentiation of the company may be very large

一定要关注这种赢家通吃风险
and we must pay attention to the risk of this winner

联网企业在盈利性、增长和风险这三个价值驱动因素
The three value drivers (in terms of profitability, growth, and risk)

与传统企业表现出不同的特点
of Internet companies show different characteristics from traditional enterprises

我们在估值的时候，可能要具体到一些指标上
we may have to specify some indicators when we value

我们在前面讨论互联网企业的商业逻辑的时候
When we discussed the business logic of Internet companies previously

可以看到无论哪一种逻辑
we can see that no matter which kind of logic

都有一个关键词就是用户
there is a keyword that is the user

因此在互联网企业的价值评估当中
Therefore, in the value assessment of Internet companies

用户是互联网价值驱动因素的一个最基础的指示器
users are the most basic indicator of the value drivers of the Internet

无论是你的溢价能力
Whether it's your premium ability

还是你成本的节约效应
the cost-saving effect of your cost

还是你未来的增长
or your future growth

都会体现在用户方面
it's reflected on the user side

所以在互联网企业的估值当中
So in the valuation of Internet companies

或是在方法的创新当中
or in the innovation of methods

大家都非常关心企业的用户
everyone is very concerned about the users of the enterprise

我们要关心它的用户类型
Of course, users of Internet companies

用户的规模，用户的粘性
we have to care about its user type, the size of the user, the user's stickiness

有一些企业互联网企业
There are some corporate Internet companies

它的用户可能更具有价值
whose users may be more valuable

它消费的频率可能更高
and may consume more frequently

所以用户类型不同
So the type of user is different

他指示出来的价值可能也不同
and the value he indicates may be different

第二个就是用户规模
The second is the size of the user

规模是互联网企业价值驱动因素
which is a very important indicator

起作用的一个很重要的指标
of the role of Internet enterprise value drivers

现实当中我们对亏损的企业或是规模很小的企业
In reality, why do we value the (some) loss-making enterprises

为什么对他（们）价值估值很高?
or small-scale enterprises?

就是预期到他未来能够获得大量的用户
It is expected that he will be able to acquire a large number of users in the future

或者当前已经获得了大量的用户规模
or has already obtained a large number of users

一旦有了这种用户规模
Once this type of user is available

它能够在竞争当中取得优势
it can gain an edge in competition

并且能够获得很高的增长和收益预期
and achieve high growth and revenue expectations

第三个就是用户黏性
The third is users' stickiness

你取得了用户，但很快又流失了
You have made the user, but they are lost soon

留不住也不行
There's nothing good for business

所以我们看互联网企业价值
Therefore, we look at the value of the Internet business

不光要看它的规模
not only depends on its scale

还要看他有没有这个用户黏性，就是对用户的吸引力
but also depends on whether he has this user stickiness or is attractive to users

当然最后就是基于用户的变现模式的设计
Of course, the final is based on the design of the user's monetization model

你是怎么样基于用户来变现
how do you realize it based on the user

有很多互联网企业集聚了很多的用户
There are a lot of Internet companies that have a lot of users

大量的用户，但是它无法变现
a lot of users, but they can't make money

比方说我们有一些自媒体企业
For example, we have some self-media companies

或者一些媒体企业集聚了很多用户
or some media companies that have gathered a lot of users

但怎么样去把这些用户变现可能还没有找到很好的模式
but how to monetize these users may not have found a good model

比方说我们讲的共享单车
For example, we talk about shared bicycles

甚至有很多各种（各样的）共享，用户非常多
and even there are many different (various) sharing, possessing many users

我们也预期在这些用户上（获得价值）
We also expect to get value on these users

基于这些用户未来有一天可能能找到变现模式
based on the fact that these users may be monetized in the future

但至少在今天我们还看不到
but at least we can't see it today

你今天看不到他就是风险
and it is the risk that you can't see him today

所以我们在对它的估值过程中
So in the process of evaluating it

要去研究它的变现模式
we have to study its monetization mode

基于用户的变现模式
based on the user's monetization mode

第二个价值指示就是垄断能力
The second value indicator is monopoly power

企业通过互联网集聚的这些用户
Can these users, through the Internet

它能不能构成对市场的垄断呢？
form a monopoly on the market?

只有构成对市场垄断
only constitute a monopoly on the market

当然这里垄断
of course, the monopoly here

跟我们反垄断政策当中的垄断是不一样的
is not the same as the monopoly in our anti-monopoly policy

这样的垄断使得我们的企业在市场上
Such a monopoly makes our company's ability

能够在一定时期内去维持自己市场的这种能力
to maintain its own market in a certain period of time

它取决于你所在的市场
It depends on your market

和你积累的这些用户
and the users you accumulate

能不能构建出进入壁垒？
Can you build barriers to entry?

你所处的市场有没有进入壁垒？
Are there any barriers to entry in the market you are in?

这种进入壁垒越高
The higher the barrier to entry

你掌控这种进入壁垒的影响因素越强
the stronger the factors that influence your entry barriers

你获得的未来持续收益的能力就越强
the stronger your ability to achieve sustained returns in the future

第二个就是转换成本
The second is the conversion cost

转换成本也是进入壁垒的一种
which is also a barrier to entry

那么转换成本即便是有新进入者进来
the conversion cost is even if new entrants come in

但是你的用户转换面临着很高的这个成本壁垒
but your user conversion faces a high-cost barrier

那么就使得新进入者进来之后，很难获取新的用户
which makes it difficult to acquire new users after new entrants come in

这两种因素会影响互联网企业
These two factors will affect the Internet company

它未来的盈利和增长的可持续性
its future profitability and the sustainability of growth

进而影响到它的价值
which in turn affect its value

这是我们关于互联网企业
This is our view of Internet companies

它在价值驱动因素方面与传统企业相比
which show different characteristics with traditional companies in value driver

可能因为互联网的特性，而显示出不同的特点
possibly because of the nature of the Internet

因此我们在对互联网企业进行价值分析
Therefore, we need to pay attention to these differences

和评估时需要关注这些差异
when conducting value analysis and evaluation of Internet companies

并且在这种评估方法的创新
and consider the application of innovation

和评估方法的应用上给予考虑
and evaluation methods of such evaluation methods

好，今天我们就讨论到这里
OK, that's all for today's class