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接下来
Next

我们来讨论关于独角兽企业估值的问题
let's discuss the issue of valuation of unicorn companies

前面我们已经介绍了
We have already introduced

就是关于独角兽的一些基本情况
some basic information about unicorns

包括独角兽的定义
including the definition of unicorns

以及中美两国独角兽企业之间的一个对比
and a comparison between China and America

那么接下来我们讨论关于独角兽企业估值的问题
Then let's discuss the issue of valuation of unicorn companies

首先是第一个
Firstly

我们来讨论关于独角兽企业估值的难点
let's discuss the difficulties in the valuation of unicorn companies

在实践意义上来说
In practical terms

独角兽企业的估值历来是我们的一个估值难点
the valuation of a unicorn company has always been a difficult point for us

是因为它跟独角兽企业本身的一些特性是高度相关的
because it is highly relevant to some of the characteristics of the unicorn company itself

由于独角兽这些本身企业特性的存在
Due to the existence of the unicorn's own corporate characteristics

使得我们在对独角兽企业估值的时候就存在着两个问题
we have two problems when we value the unicorn company

第一个问题
The first question

如果你尝试从收益的途径的角度来对独角兽企业进行估值的话
if you try to value the unicorn company from the perspective of the way of income

你面对的问题是什么呢
what is the problem you are facing

就是独角兽企业你对它的收益判断
It is judgement for the income of the unicorn enterprise

它的收益不确定性是非常之强的
and its income uncertainty is very strong

第二个，如果你要从这个市场法的角度
Second,if you want to evaluate the unicorn company from the marketing

从可比的角度来对独角兽企业进行估值的话
and comparable perspective

你的问题和挑战是什么
what are your problems and challenges

你发现自己很难找到可以准确对标的可比公司
You find it hard to find a comparable company that can accurately match the target

那么下面我们就会从这两个角度
Then we will from these two perspectives

对独角兽企业估值的难点开始进行分析和讲述
analyze and talk the difficulty of the valuation of the unicorn enterprise

我们怎么样去理解或者怎么样去明白
How do we understand

独角兽企业为什么会呈现收益不确定性强这个难点呢
why the unicorn company has a difficult of income uncertainty

第一点是因为增长的不确定性往往会导致我们
The first point is that the uncertainty of growth often leads us to question

对独角兽企业本身收益能力的实现存在疑问
the realization of the profitability of the unicorn company itself

增长的不确定性体现在三个方面
The uncertainty of growth is reflected in three aspects

第一个
First

大量的独角兽企业进入一个创新型的产业或市场的时候
when a large number of unicorn companies enter an innovative industry or market

他会面对一个高速增长的看起来前景非常光明的这样一个未来
he will face a fast-growing and brightly future

但是呢这也许是错觉
but this may be an illusion

因为很多企业在保持着前期的高速的指数型增长之后
Because many companies maintain a high-speed exponential growth in the early stage

往往会出现一个后续增长乏力的情况
there is often a situation of weak growth in subsequent growth

典型的企业就是我们看到前几年出现的共享单车企业
The typical enterprise is shared bicycle companies that appeared in the past few years

比如摩拜这样的公司
For example Mobike

摩拜在刚刚开始创立的时候
when Mobie was just founded

被认为是一个非常高明的创新的商业模式
it was considered a very smart and innovative business model

也吸引了大量的我们讲的风险投资企业的青睐
and attracted a lot of the favor of venture capital companies

成为所谓的风口企业
become a widely concerned enterprise

但是发展到今天你会发现
But today，you will find that

由于整个共享单车市场的前景不明
because of the unknown prospects of the entire shared bicycle market

使得摩拜单车它是否能够持续高速增长
so it is doubtful whether it will continue to grow rapidly

和未来的盈利能否实现都存在疑问
and whether future profits can be realized

正是因为这样的
Because of it

我们可能面对被淘汰的市场和产品的前景
we may face the prospects of the eliminated markets and products

使得我们前期关注的一些高成长性的独角兽企业
so that some high-growth unicorn companies that we paid attention to in the early stage

往往成为无法持续和没有办法继续高速增长的企业
are often unsustainable and unable to continue to grow at a high speed

这就是市场空间不明
This is the unclear market space

会使得独角兽企业的指数性增长不可持续
will make the exponential growth of the unicorn enterprise unsustainable

进而它的收益没有办法维持
and its benefits will not be maintained

第二个即便是独角兽企业进入的是
Second,even if the unicorn company enters

一个有着很大的增长前景和增长空间的市场
a market with great growth prospects and growth space

但是也有可能由于独角兽企业本身的问题
it may also be due to the problem of the unicorn company itself

即便它是第一个进入这个市场的企业
even it is the first company to enter this market

但是在后续的发展当中
However in the follow-up development

当竞争更强烈,竞争更充分的时候
when the competition is stronger and more complete

他也有可能因为自己竞争力不足的问题而掉队
he may also fall behind because of his lack of competitiveness

而这样的掉队就会导致它的收益能力出现一个下降的局面
Such a fall will lead to a decline in its profitability

典型企业就是我们讨论的当当
The typical enterprise is the Dangdang we discussed

当当在当初被创立的时候
When Dangdang was founded

作为一个我们讲的在线的图书平台
as an online book platform

甚至被认为是可以对标亚马逊企业的这样一个平台
it is even considered as a benchmarkinga for Amazon's platform

那么今天亚马逊已经成长成为
then Amazon has grown into

一个接近1万亿美元市值的企业
a company with a market value of nearly $1 trillion today

而当当的命运呢
and the fate of Dangdang

它去年被海航收购
which was acquired by Hainan Airlines last year

换句话说,当当在主流电商平台的竞争当中掉队
In other words,Dangdang lost in the competition of the mainstream e-commerce platform

这是他本身的战略发展能力和业务发展能力的不足造成的
which is caused by his own lack of strategic and business development capabilities

如果我们关注的独角兽企业
If the unicorn company we are concerned about

是这样一个在行业发展当中竞争力不足的企业
is such a company that is not competitive enough in the development of the industry

那么它的收益能力的变化就是我们需要判断的一个关键
then its change in profitability is a key for our judgment

第三个原因跟企业本身的状态没有关系
The third reason has no realtionship with the state of the company itself

但它是资本市场当中常常会出现的一个现象
but it is a phenomenon that often occurs in the capital market

也就是独角兽企业作为一个备受投资机构青睐的概念
It means that the unicorn company as a concept which investment institution favors

有非常多的公司希望自己能够挤入到这样的一个空间当中
There are many companies that want to be able to squeeze themselves

那就会有企业通过包装的方式通过不诚信的方式
there will be enterprises through unscrupulous means and packaging

去获取市场和投资机构对它的认可
to obtain the recognition of the market and investment institutions

典型的公司就是美国的福塔公司
The typical company is the American company Foundation Medicine

这家公司在创业的时候
when company start a business

声称自己是专注于基因检测的具有领先技术的公司
he claimed to be a leading technology company focused on genetic testing

在这个公司的高峰期
At the peak of the company

它的估值高达90亿美元
it was valued at $9 billion

但是2016年它被华尔街日报的记者披露
However in 2016 it was disclosed by the reporter of the Wall Street Journal

它是一家空壳公司
It is a shell company

或者说它的核心业务并没有所谓足够的竞争力
or its core business is not so competitive

它的技术也不具有足够的先进性
and its technology is not advanced enough

这样的信息欺诈就使得我们
Such information fraud makes us have many problems

在要对独角兽企业的收益能力
when we want to judge

进行判断的时候就存在着很多问题
the profitability of a unicorn company

第二个
Second

就是如果我们要去阐述独角兽企业的收益不确定性强
if we are going to explain unicorn enterprise's strong income uncertainty

进而难以判断的话
even it is difficult to judge

很重要的一个原因是因为
the one important reasons is that

独角兽企业大部分都是历史很短的企业
most of the unicorn companies are enterprises with very short history

按照现有的统计数据来说明的话
According to the existing statistics

就是我们看到今天大量的独角兽企业
a large number of unicorn companies we see today

它的平均的存续年限是4到8年
its average duration is 4 to 8 years

也就是说今天的独角兽企业最多就是创办了八年的时间
which means that today's unicorn companies are founded for eight years at most

一般来说 由于这样短的企业历史
In general because of this short corporate history

使得我们没有办法积累足够的
we don't accumulate enough

历史财务数据和历史发展的数据
historical financial data and historical development data

作为对独角兽未来发展和未来收益判断的基础
as a basis for judging the future development and future earnings of the unicorn

虽然说独角兽企业它是一个作为一个高成长性企业
Although the unicorn enterprise is a high-growth enterprise

作为一个创新型的企业
as an innovative enterprise

它的未来发展和收益未见得
its future development and income

跟历史数据有很强的直接的相关性
are not directly related to historical data

但是没有这样的一个历史数据和历史信息的累积
but there is no accumulation of such historical data

其实也使得我们对独角兽未来收益和未来发展的判断
it will makes our judgment on the future income and development of the unicorn

缺失了一块判断和分析的数据基础
missing a data foundation for judgment and analysis

第三个就是独角兽企业往往都是启动了一个新的市场
The third is that unicorn companies often open a new market

或者启动了一个新的产业的企业
or a new industry

或者启动了一个新的产业的企业
or a new industry

那么这样的企业所在的行业往往
Then the industry in which such a company is located often

往存在着同样历史过短的问题
has problems of the short history

如果我们是在一个历史相对较长的行业当中
If we are in a relatively long-term industry

我们要判断一个新创企业的这样一个发展和收益的话
we have to judge such a development and income of a new venture

我们可能有行业发展的经验可以借鉴
we may learn from the experience existed in original industry development

但是对于大多数的独角兽企业而言
But for most unicorn companies

它没有可以借鉴的行业发展经验
it has no industry development experience to learn

因为从行业和企业本身都是一个全新的企业存在
because the industry and the company itself are both a new things

这对我们对独角兽企业未来发展和收益的判断造成了困扰和挑战
This also plagues and challenges our judgment

独角兽企业收益不确定强表现的另外一个方面
Another aspect of the unicorn business's uncertainties

就是跟独角兽企业本身的成长模式相关
is related to the growth model of the unicorn company itself

由于在独角兽的成长期,往往会存在着大量投资
Because of the large amount of investment in the growth period of the unicorn

这样的大量投资的存在
the large amount of investment in the growth period of the unicorn

就会导致独角兽企业在很长一段时间之内都没有办法盈利
it will make the unicorn enterprises have no profits for a long time

都是处于亏损状态
and they are all at a loss state

第一个,尤其对于互联网领域的独角兽企业而言
The first,especially for unicorn companies in the Internet sector

互联网在早期创业的企业当中
in early-stage startups

一个非常流行的模式就是免费模式
a very popular model of the Internet is the free model

因为它需要人们通过免费的方式来试用它的服务和产品
Because it requires people to try out its services and products in a free way

第二个呢,它需要支付大量的用户教育成本
Second,it requires a large amount of education costs to change user

使得它的产品和服务跟它最终消费者产生直接的联系
making its products and services directly related to its end consumers

由于这样的免费模式的存在和用户教育成本的存在
Due to the existence of such a free model and the existence of user education costs

使得独角兽企业很难获得在营收上爆发
it is difficult for unicorn companies to get a huge revenue

典型的企业就是我们所谈的美团
The typical company is the Meituan we are talking about above

美团在开启它的这个外卖业务的时候
When the Meituan started its take-out business

它首先要做的第一个事情
the first thing it had to do was

就是教育消费者能够有效地使用外卖服务
to educate consumers to use the take-out service effectively

那就需要在这个信息系统在平台构建上面去投入成本
It is necessary to invest in the information system and platform building

另外一个方面
On the other hand

它需要关联企业能够提供外卖服务的厂商
it requires a related company to provide a take-out service

因此它需要有大量的人力去做地推的工作
so it needs a lot of people to do the promotion work

去做厂商联系的工作
and contact the manufacturer

那么这样的前期的成本支出
Then such early-stage cost expenditures

在美团和饿了么的市场竞争当中是始终存在的
are always present in the market competition of the Meituan and Hungry

双方都在竞相通过补贴的方式
Both parties are competing through the way of subsidy

通过免费的方式来使它的这个用户获得增长
and free to make its users grow

进而影响了它的成本状况和盈利能力
which in turn affects its cost status and profitability

第二个就是即便是摆脱了初创期
The second is that even after getting rid of the initial stage

大量的独角兽企业进入成长阶段之后
a large number of unicorn companies have entered the stage of growth

它还是存在一个所谓的竞争性烧钱的压力和成本负担
and there is still a pressure of competitive expenditure and cost burden

原因就是你一旦开创了一个模式创新的市场
The reason is that once you create a market for model innovation

就会有大量的竞争者
there will be a large number of competitors

根据你的模式进入你的这个市场空间跟你进行竞争
enter your market space according to your model and compete with you

那么为了在这个阶段获得优势
So in order to gain an advantage at this stage

大多数独角兽企业选择的方法都是通过烧钱的方法
most unicorn companies choose the method of burning money

通过补贴的方法
and subsidies

过去几年,当我们看到这个滴滴
In the past few years,when we saw that this Didi

启动了所谓的平台叫车的这样一个业务市场的时候
launched a business market of platform of taking the car

就会有非常多的竞争者进入这个市场
there would be a lot of competitors entering the market

跟它采用同样的模式竞争
and competing with the same model

最主要的两个竞争者 :一个是滴滴,一个是快的
The two most important competitors :one is Didi,the other is Kuaidi

背后都有非常大的财团和投资者提供他们烧钱的补贴
and there are very large consortia and investors providing subsidies for their money

由于在成长阶段存在着这样竞争性烧钱的成本负担
Due to the cost burden of such competitive burning in the growth stage

使得独角兽企业
it is difficult for the unicorn company

在他的成长阶段也很难获得除了客户之外的收入
to obtain income other than the customer during his growth stage

第三个,即便是独角兽企业成功地迈过了初创期
Third,even if the unicorn company successfully passed the initial stage

成功地迈过了成长期
it successfully passed the growth period

迈过了高额成本支出的阶段
and passed the stage of high cost expenditure

到达了一定稳定期之后,它存在一个问题
After reaching a certain stable period, it has a problem

早期我们通过大量的免费也好，大量的成本支出也好
Early we through a lot of free and cost expenditure

获得了非常多的用户，用户也产生了一定的粘性
I got a lot of users and the user also has a certain stickiness

但是怎么样把我具有粘性的这些用户
But how to turn these sticky users

转化为我的实际收入
into my actual income

这就是这个阶段的独角兽企业所要面对的问题
this is the problem that the unicorn company at this stage has to face

怎么样使得自己转型和确定到一个流量变现的方式
how to transform itself and determine the way to realize the flow

那么这样的典型企业 就比如说是豆瓣
Such a typical enterprise for example is Douban

豆瓣作为一个早期的我们讲的互联网社区平台型企业
As an early Internet community platform company

很早就吸引了足够多的它的目标客户群体
it has attracted enough target customers

这些客户群体也是有足够的粘性的
These customer groups are also sticky enough

但是直到今天为止，豆瓣仍然在苦苦的寻找它的流量变现方式
But until today,Douban is still struggling to find its way of realizing the flow

因为客户基数在那里，客户数量在那里
Because the customer base is there,the number of customers is there

客户的活动确实是在那里
and the customer's activities are really there

但是这些客户的活动
But how do the activities of these customers

怎么样跟豆瓣本身的收入以及收益产生联系
relate to the income of Douban itself

豆瓣仍然在苦苦的挣扎
Douban is still struggling

对于独角兽企业收益不确定性强
For the unicorn company's income uncertainty

判断的另外一个要点就是独角兽企业最终能够活下来吗
another point of judgment is that the unicorn company can finally survive

换句话说
In other words

独角兽企业最终是否能够成为所谓的稳定收益企业
if unicorn companies eventually become stable income companies

第一个,大多数的独角兽企业确实启动了
First,most unicorn companies have indeed launched

一个之前没有的具有颠覆性的市场空间
a disruptive market space that they did not have before

但是进入这个市场空间竞争的企业
But as for the companies that enter this market space

是不是就能够伴随着这个竞争空间
if it grows smoothly

和竞争市场的成长顺利成长呢
with the growth of this competitive space market

它会存在两个问题
It will have two problems

第一个问题是很有可能你的这样一个市场空间
The first problem is that you are likely to have such a market space

你让这样一个利基市场最后都是
You let such a niche market end up being a market

一个被淘汰的被更优化更新的产品和服务替代的市场
that has been replaced by more optimized and updated products and services

那么在这种情况下
In this case

你所想象的独角兽企业进入这个市场空间
the prospect of a unicorn company that enter this market space

就能够顺利成长的前景就会存在问题
can be able to grow smoothly will have a problem

到这个时候
By this time

在这个市场上就没有任何一个最后的赢家
there will be no final winner in this market

因为市场都已经被颠覆和取代了
Because the market has been subverted and replaced

第二个,即便这个市场是可以长期存在的
Second,even if this market can exist for a long time

那是不是你所评估的独角兽企业就是最后的赢家
is it that the unicorn company you evaluated is the final winner

由于竞争是如此残酷
As the competition is so cruel

按照马云的话来说
According to Ma Yun's words

大部分的企业都看不到后天早上的太阳
most companies can't see the sun the day after tomorrow

因此独角兽企业能否成为他所在市场空间最后的赢家
Therefore whether the unicorn enterprise can become the final winner in his market space

这是一个需要判断的重要假设
is an important assumption that needs to be judged

第二个
Second

即便是我们认为独角兽企业能够成为所谓的稳定增长公司
even if we believe that the unicorn company can become a stable growth company

他能够成为最后的赢家
he can be the final winner

但是什么时候能够成为呢
But when can it be made

时点的判断也是一个关键
The judgment of the time is also a key

因为时点的判断直接决定了我们对于这个企业
because the judgment of the time directly determines our analysis of

能否成为稳定增长公司以及后面的收益状态的分析
whether the enterprise can become a stable growth company and income state

第三个,我们看到一个公司进入稳定期了
Third ,we saw that a company entered a stable period

我们也判断出它大概在什么时点上能够进入稳定期
and we also judged when it was likely to enter a stable period

但是在稳定期的企业的状态和它的收益能力
But in the stable period the state of the enterprise and its profitability

跟你前面看到的初创期成长期
are different with the start-up period

它的状态是有变化的
its state is changing

你如何判断和分析这个变化
how do you judge and analyze this change

这个变化可能有三个方面
There may be three aspects to this change

第一个,业务发生了变化
Firstly,the business has changed

第一个,业务发生了变化
Firstly,the business has changed

第二个, 资产发生了变化
Secondly,the asset has changed

第三个 行为发生了变化
Thirdly,the behavior has changed

由于这个多种变化存在的可能性
Due to the possibility of this variety of changes

使得我们在对独角兽估值的时候
when we are evaluating the unicorn

你要判断它带来稳定收益的企业状态
it have challenge and problem to judge

和收益模式就存在挑战和问题
if enterprise have stable state and income model

那么在估值当中还有一个非常重要的指标就是折现率
Then there is a very important indicator in the valuation is the discount rate

独角兽企业它的估值
The valuation of the unicorn company and

它的折现率的判断和选取跟一般企业存在一定的差异
its judgment and selection of the discount rate is different from the general enterprise

这个差异是由独角兽本身的所谓的
This difference is caused by the

高成长、高变化、高波动的状态所带来的
high growth,high variation and high volatility of the unicorn itself

因此在对独角兽企业的折现率的判断和选取上就会存在挑战
Therefore,there will be challenges in judging and selecting of discount rate

第一个,如果我们去使用股权贝塔
First,if we go to equity beta

这是一个选取折现率的关键的参数
this is a key parameter for choosing the discount rate

大量的独角兽企业都是所谓的非上市公司
A large number of unicorn companies are non-listed companies

而今天我们能够选择到最方便的所谓的股权贝塔的数据
and today the data that we are able to choose and most convenient is equity beta

都是来自于对于上市公司数据的统计
which are all from the statistics of listed companies

你能不能够直接使用上市公司的贝塔数据
Can you directly use the beta data of listed companies

作为独角兽企业 尤其是非上市独角兽企业的贝塔的来源
as a source for unicorn companies especially for the unlisted unicorn companies

这是一个很重要的问题
This is a very important issue

第二个,大多数的独角兽企业都经过了多轮的股权融资
Second,most unicorn companies have gone through multiple rounds of equity financing

我们今天谈到的A轮B轮C轮一直到G轮
in the A round,B round,C round until to the G round we are talk about today

在这样一个多重股权融资的这样一个过程当中
In such a process of multiple equity financing

每一轮进去的投资者,他的股权,他所要求的收益回报和他的收益实现方式都存在差异
each investor's shareholding return and the way of income realization are different

这样的差异性存在就使得我们对于
The existence of such a difference makes us have a problem

独角兽企业股权的整个的资本成本的判断会存在问题
in judging the entire cost of capital of the unicorn company's equity

你的股份说起来是同股同权
Your shares are said to be the same shares

但是你的股份是在哪一轮进入独角兽企业
but in which round your shares entered the unicorn business

很可能由于你的期望收益的不同
it is likely that because of the difference in your expected income

和你的这个股权要求权的不同
and your shareholding claim

使得我们对它的资本成本的判断不同
The judgment of capital cost is different

第三个,有一些独角兽企业会
Third,some unicorn companies will raise funds

通过发行债权的方式、借款的方式来进行融资
by way of issuing credits and borrowing

那么我们需要对独角兽企业的
when we need to judge

债务资本成本进行判断的时候
the cost of debt capital of the unicorn enterprise

由于独角兽企业的债权往往
because the claims of the unicorn are

都是通过非公开的渠道来进行的来获得的
often obtained through non-public channels

而我们如果要从所谓的公开债券市场上的数据
And if we want to judge the capital cost of such a non-public offering of bonds

而我们如果要从所谓的公开债券市场上的数据
And if we want to judge the capital cost of such a non-public offering of bonds

来判断这样一个非公开发行债券的资本成本的话
from the data in the so-called public bond market

那么这也存在一个不匹配的问题
then there is a problem of mismatch