Video在线视频

好，介绍了这个成长期的独角兽企业估值之后
Ok, after introducing the valuation of this growing unicorn company

我们接下来介绍成熟期企业的独角兽企业估值
We next introduce the valuation of unicorn companies in mature companies

我们选择了三种方法，第一个就是常见的PE法
We have chosen three methods, the first one is the common PE method

第二个就是PEG估值法
The second is the PEG valuation method

第三个就是
The third is

我们其实很常使用的DCF也就是现金流折现估值法
The DCF that we actually use is the cash flow discounted valuation method

首先那个PE，我们都知道，PE是所谓的市盈率
First of all, PE, we all know that PE is the so-called P/E ratio

要使用这个方法，一个前提就是这个企业已经实现了盈利
To use this method, one premise is that the company has achieved profitability

那么在成熟期，独角兽企业一般已经实现了盈利
So at the maturity stage, unicorn companies have generally achieved profitability

因此我们可以把每股盈利作为它的可比的核心指标
So we can use EPS as its comparable core indicator

从另一个角度来讲，我们要判断一个独角兽企业它是否是进入了成熟期
From another perspective, we have to judge whether a unicorn company has entered maturity

不能简单地以它是否上市作为标准
Can't simply use it as a standard

其实有很多的企业即便已经上市
In fact, there are many companies, even if they are already listed

我们认为它仍然处于一个我们讲的初创期，或者成长期
We think it is still in the beginning stage of our talk, or the growth period

举例来讲的话，比如说，今天当阿里巴巴在纽约上市的时候
For example, when Alibaba was listed in New York today

它的商业模式相对稳定了
Its business model is relatively stable

你可以认为它是进入了一个成熟期的公司，是吧？
You can think of it as a company that has entered a mature period, right?

但是今天当拼多多在纳斯达克上市的时候，拼多多是一个进入成熟期的公司吗？
But when it comes to listing on NASDAQ today, is it a company that has entered maturity?

它的商业模式稳定吗？它盈利了吗？它连盈利都没有实现
Be its business model stable? Is it profitable? It does not even realize the profit

所以你不能以拼多多是否上市
So you can't go to the market to see if it is going to go public

作为它是不是进入所谓成熟期的标准
As it is entering the so-called maturity standard

这个时候你使用所谓的PE方法，对拼多多进行估值就是不合适的
At this time, even you use the so-called PE method, it is not appropriate to evaluate it

同样的用PE法进行估值
The same valuation is done using the PE method

你的行业，可比的模式，可比的对标公司能否准确地寻找
Your industry, comparable model, comparable benchmarking companies can accurately find

这是应用难点另一个角度
This is another point of difficulty in application

因为PE法它的这样一个市值，基本上是公开资本市场的数据
Because the PE market has such a market value, basically the data onto the open capital market

如果你上市公司作为可比对象的话，就存在一个问题
If you are a listed company as a comparable bject, there is a problem

今天比如说中国的独角兽企业
Today, for example, China’s unicorn company

它的这个上市的范围包括了美股也好，港股也好，包括A股市场也好
Its listing range includes US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, including the A-share market

不同资本市场上的公司市值是不是可以直接可比？
Can the market value of companies in different capital markets be directly comparable?

假如今天你评估一个所谓的A股的独角兽企业
If today you evaluate a so-called A-share unicorn company

你要评估它的时候，你要找对标公司
When you want to evaluate it, you need to find the matching company

你是不是可以用美股的上市公司的这样一个PE值来做你的评估标准？
Can you use the PE value of a listed company of US stocks to make your evaluation criteria?

这可能存在问题，为什么？
This may be a problem, why?

因为A股市场的市盈率和市净率
Because of the P/E ratio and P/B ratio of the A-share market

是明显的跟美股市场上的市盈率存在差异
It is obvious that there is a difference between the price-earnings ratio of the US stock market

因为不同资本市场上它这个市值
Because of its market value in different capital markets

它的这个估值逻辑和它这个价格的形成逻辑是不一样
Its valuation logic is different from the logic of its price formation

其实在这里就未必直接可比。好，这是PE法
In fact, it may not be directly comparable here. Ok, this is the PE method

那么PE法是直接去反映所谓的盈利性指标
Then the PE method directly reflects the so-called profitability indicator

就看你的利润和事实之间的关系
Depending on the relationship between your profit and the facts

但是对于独角兽企业而言，大量的独角兽企业即便在上市之后
But for unicorn companies, a large number of unicorn companies, even after listing

在成熟之后进入成熟期之后，它可能还有所谓的很强的成长性
After maturity, and after entering maturity, it may have so-called strong growth

举个例子来说，腾讯也好，阿里巴巴也好，在它上市很长时间之后
For example, Tencent or Alibaba, after it has been on the market for a long time

他仍然能够保持 每年40%以上的利润增长
He is still able to maintain a profit growth of more than 40% per year

因此对于它成长性的判断怎么样？
So how about the judgment of its growth?

纳入到我们这个价值评估的这样一个思路当中就是一个问题
Incorporating into our thinking of value assessment is a problem

所以我们可以选用PEG方法。PEG是什么？
So we can choose the PEG method. What is PEG?

就是用市盈率除以盈利增长比率
Is to divide the price-earnings ratio by the profit growth ratio

它既反映可比的盈利能力的差异，也反映可比的成长性的差异
It reflects both the difference in comparable profitability and the difference in comparable growth

这一个结合了企业的成长性和盈利能力
This one combines the growth and profitability of the company

一起来判断公司价值的方法
The way to judge the value of a company together

那使用PEG方法，它的这个难点也是一样的
That PEG method, the same to the difficulty

就是你用PEG方法算出一公司的值，但是你怎么样去找到合适的对标公司
That is, you use the PEG method to calculate the value of a company

但是你怎么样去找到合适的对标公司
But how do you find the right benchmark company?

这是一个难点。第二个难点
This is a difficult point. The second difficulty

你计算PEG这样一个值得所谓的资本市场的选择
You calculate PEG such a choice worthy of the so-called capital market

你选用哪个资本市场的市值数据和利润数据？
Which capital market data and profit data do you choose?

这同样是选择的难点之一
This is also one of the difficulties

那么聚焦讨论的就是我们是不是可以使用所谓的现金流折现方法
So the focus of discussion is whether we can use the so-called cash flow discount method

就DCF估值法来对独角兽企业进行估值
Valuation of unicorn companies for the DCF valuation method

一般来说就是DCF估值法
Generally speaking, it is the DCF valuation method

对于初创型的独角兽企业也好，对于成长期的独角兽企业也好，都是不太适用的
For start-up unicorn companies, for the growing unicorn company, it is not suitable

因为他们没有所谓的盈利的实现
Because they don't have the so-called profit realization

那么当你在这个独角兽企业进入所谓的成熟期之后
Then when you enter the so-called maturity period in this unicorn company

我们大致认为DCF方法可以进入适用的这样一个阶段
We generally think that the DCF method can enter such a stage that is applicable

能够成为对于独角兽进入成熟期之后，它的盈利的可预测性的认知
Can be a cognition of the predictability of its profitability after the unicorn enters maturity

是我们DCF方法应用的一个前提
Is a prerequisite for the application of our DCF method

那么运用DCF方法对独角兽企业进行估值
Then using the DCF method to evaluate the unicorn company

有三个问题是需要讨论的
There are three issues that need to be discussed

就包括第一个就是业务战略的生长空间
Including the first one is the growth space of the business strategy

第二个是盈利的资产结构和盈利的预测问题
The second is the forecast of profitable asset structure and profitability

第三个就是折现率问题
The third is the discount rate issue

首先来看第一个问题
The first question to look at first

就是你要使用DCF方法对独角兽企业进行估值
Is that you want to use the DCF method to value unicorn companies

对它的未来的收益进行预测的话
If there are predictions about its future earnings

有哪几个问题是值得讨论的
There are several issues that are worth discussing

第一个，这个独角兽企业我们在创办的时候
First, this unicorn company, when we were founded

都希望他成长成为一个像阿里这样的
I hope that he will grow into a large company like Ali and Tencent

像腾讯这样的几千亿美元规模的大公司
Which is a multi-billion dollar company

但现实是很少有企业能够做到这样的平台规模。为什么？
But the reality is that few companies can achieve such a platform size. why?

是因为他所处的业务市场规模
Because of the size of his business market

就决定了你对这个独角兽企业的估值上限
It determines your valuation ceiling for this unicorn company

也决定了你对独角兽企业未来收益预测的上限
It also determines the upper limit of your future earnings forecast for the unicorn company

换句话来说，独角兽企业如果作为一个赛跑选手的话
In other words, if the unicorn company is a runner

你要测试它的这个跑步能力有多强，不仅是自己它本身的身体素质如何
How strong is your running ability to test it, not just the physical fitness of itself?

还有一个很重要的原因 是他所在的赛道到底有多少？
Another important reason is how much is his track?

它是跑50米？跑100米？还是跑400米还是到3000米？
Is it running 50 meters? Run 100 meters? Still running 400 meters or 3,000 meters?

赛道越长，盈利预测的上限越高
The longer the track, the higher the upper limit of the profit forecast

估值的上限越高
The higher the upper limit of the valuation

第二个，业务市场
Second, the business market

这个独角兽企业在业务市场上本身的竞争力
This unicorn company is competitive in the business market itself

会影响我们对它估值结构的判断
It will affect our judgment on the valuation structure of it

大家都是选手，有些人跑得快，有的人跑得慢
Everyone is a player, some people run fast, some people run slow

即便我们在在同样的赛道上 采取同样的赛跑规则
Even if we are taking the same rules of racing on the same track

可能也有第一名、第二名、第三名
There may also be first, second and third places

独角兽企业本身，即便它最后能够存活
The unicorn company itself, even if it can survive in the end

它本身的竞争力 会直接影响我们对于它估值的结果 的判断
Its own competitiveness will directly affect our judgment on the outcome of its valuation

比如说
For example

同样是电商企业，京东和阿里的估值为什么差异这么大？
The same is the e-commerce company, why is the valuation of Jingdong and Ali so different?

京东本身再努力，它的竞争力再去打造
Jingdong itself works hard, and its competitiveness is built again

它可能都没有办法
It may not be possible

变成像阿里一样有5000亿美元估值的这样一个平台公司
To change to such a platform company as Ali, which has a $500 billion valuation

这就是由京东本身在这个电商市场上的竞争力决定的
This is determined by JD's own competitiveness in this e-commerce market

第三个问题，就是我们在对用DCF方法对独角兽企业进行价值评估的时候
The third problem is that when we use the DCF method to evaluate the value of a unicorn company

对于它的公司存续年限，进而对我们收益年限的判断是一个关键
Judging the duration of its company and then the timing of our revenue is a key

虽然我们现在使用DCF方法，对一般企业进行评估的时候
Although we now use the DCF method to evaluate the general business

我们通常都使用所谓的永续假设的这样一个原则
We usually use the so-called principle of perpetual assumptions

但是由于独角兽企业所处的
But because of the unicorn company

所谓的产业和市场是处在快速迭代
The so-called industry and market are in rapid iterations

快速的这个发展，快速的颠覆的这样一个市场上
This development of rapid, rapid subversion of such a market

因此独角兽企业它本身的产业生命周期
Therefore,the unicorn enterprise itself has its own industrial life cycle

它本身的企业生命周期可能某种意义上不符合所谓的永续假设
Its own business life cycle may not, in a sense, conform to the so-called perpetual assumptions

因此我认为我们需要重新去思考
So I think we need to think again

就是独角兽企业所处的产业和市场
It is the industry and market in which unicorn companies are located

它的生命周期跟独角兽企业本身的存续年限
Its life cycle and the duration of the unicorn company itself

和它的收益年限之间到底有什么关系？
What is the relationship between it and its income period?

那么这个关系和对这个存续年限的判断
Then this relationship and judgment on this duration

就影响了我们对于主要说未来收益预测年限的判断
It affects our judgment on the main reason for predicting the future earnings

这就是第一个，就是对业务战略增长空间问题的讨论
This is the first, a discussion of the space for business strategy growth

第二个，使用DCF方法对独角兽企业进行估值的时候
Second, when using the DCF method to evaluate unicorn companies

你还必须去考虑所谓的盈利资产结构和盈利预测的问题
You must also consider the so-called profit asset structure and profit forecasting issues

首先第一个
First of all

今天我们可以把这个企业的资产分为所谓的现有资产和增长性资产
Today we can divide the assets of this enterprise into so-called existing assets and growth assets

如果它作为你的盈利预测的资产基础的话，现有资产提供什么？
If it is the asset base of your earnings forecast, what does the existing asset offer?

提供比较稳定的未来的盈利预期。而增长型资产出什么？
Provide a stable future profit forecast. What is the growth asset?

提供成长性的未来预期
Providing growth prospects for the future

举个例子来说，比如我们今天看百度如果要对它进行估值
For example, if we look at Baidu today, if we want to value it

很明显在它业务板块当中，它的主业搜索引擎是相对稳定的
It is clear that in its business sector, its main business search engine is relatively stable

那么与搜索引擎相关的资产，就是我们今天所谈的现有资产
Then the assets associated with search engines are the existing assets we talk about today

它提供了一个相对稳定的盈利预期
It provides a relatively stable profit forecast

但是百度除了它的主体属于主营业务收入之外,它还在投资什么东西呢？
But Baidu is investing in something other than its main business income？

比如它投资百度地图
For example, it invests in Baidu maps

百度地图本身跟它的传统的信息搜索业务有一定的相关性,是吧？
Baidu map itself has a certain correlation with its traditional information search business, right?

因此百度地图就成为它一个重要的增长性资产和增长型业务的来源
Therefore, Baidu map has become an important growth asset and a source of growth business

它提供一个具有一定成长性的未来盈利的预期
It provides an expectation of future earnings with certain growth

另一个方面，百度还投资什么？
On the other hand, what is Baidu’s investment?

百度还投资人工智能
Baidu also invests in artificial intelligence

人工智能可能是一个更具有较强的不确定性的投资方向
And artificial intelligence may be an investment direction with more uncertainties

但是对于百度而言，这也是它的增长性资产当中非常重要的一个板块
But for Baidu, this is also a very important part of its growth assets

因此在考虑现有业务
So considering existing business

比如搜索引擎相关资产提供的稳定的盈利预期的基础之上
Such as the stable profit expectations provided by search engine related assets

再来考虑百度所投资的其他的增长型资产增长性业务
Let's consider other growth asset growth businesses that Baidu invested in

比如百度地图，比如人工智能
Such as Baidu maps, such as artificial intelligence

这些业务板块和资产的盈利的预期基础之上
Based on the expected earnings of these business segments and assets

你才能去准确的分析和判断
You can go to accurate analysis and judgment

使用DCF方法
Use the DCF method

对独角兽企业未来收益预期的一个判断基础
To determine the basis for the future earnings expectations of unicorn companies

那我们在考虑百度的估值的时候
Then when we consider Baidu’s valuation

你就必须从它稳定的主营业务搜索引擎
You have to be stable from its main business search engine

相关资产角度
From the perspective of related assets

从它具有较强不确定性的百度地图的这个业务的增长角度
From the perspective of the growth of Baidu maps with strong uncertainty

以及具有更强不确定性的人工智能的业务和成长角度来进行考虑
And the business and growth perspective of artificial intelligence with greater uncertainty

对于增长性资产的这个未来盈利预期
For this future earnings expectation of growth assets

是我们使用DCF方法评估独角兽企业（价值）当中的一个关键
It is a key to evaluating the unicorn business (value) using the DCF method

那对于这样的正常性资产的未来盈利预期的时候
When considering the future earnings expectations of such normal assets

要考虑以下几个问题
Consider the following questions

第一个，你要考虑到增长它是递减的
The first one, you have to consider that growth is decrementing

你不能指望说我们投资一个增长性的业务
You can't expect to invest in a growth business

伴随着我们资源的注入，它能够匀速增长，或者是增速增长
With the injection of our resources, it can grow at a constant rate, or grow at a faster rate

实际上伴随着我们的投资增长总是会递减
In fact, our investment growth will always decrease

第二个，你不能预期在这市场上只有你一个竞争者
Second, you can't expect only one competitor in this market

实际上伴随着你对某一个未来业务方向的投入和未来资产的投入
In fact, along with your investment in a future business direction and investment in future assets

总会有竞争者进入这个市场跟你竞争
There will always be competitors entering this market to compete with you

那么它的业务投资状况
Then its business investment status

他的资产投资状况就给你产生了竞争博弈的效应
His asset investment situation gives you the effect of a competitive game

你必须充分考虑这方面的影响
You must fully consider the impact of this

第三个，你就要考虑宏观经济
Third, you have to consider the macro economy

特别是经济周期和产业周期
In particular, the impact of the economic cycle and industry cycle

对于你的所谓增长性资产增长前景的影响
On your so-called growth asset growth prospects

如果你的这样一个投资是跟经济周期高度相关的强相关的
If your investment is highly correlated with the economic cycle

那么经济周期本身的变动就会影响你的业务发展和盈利预测
Then changes in the economic cycle itself will affect your business development and profit forecast

那么考虑DCF方法，对独角兽企业进行评估的最后一个方面
Then consider the DCF method, the last aspect of the evaluation of the unicorn company

就是你怎么样考虑这个DCF方法运用当中的折现率问题
It is how you consider the discount rate problem in the application of this DCF method

因为我们都知道折现率，它本身是反映所谓的企业风险和业务风险
Because we all know the discount rate, it reflects the so-called corporate risk and business risks

那考虑独角兽企业用DCF方法评估的折现率问题是第一个
The question of the discount rate for unicorn companies using the DCF method is the first one

你要清楚的知道，就是独角兽（企业）进入成熟期之后
You have to know clearly that after the unicorn (enterprise) enters maturity

它的风险相比这个初创期和成长期已经开始有明显的降低
Its risk has begun to show a significant reduction compared to this initial period and growth period

你就不能采取早期的所谓的高风险的这样一个认知状态
You can't take the early so-called high-risk state of cognition

来评价这个独角兽（企业）在成熟期的折现率风险
To assess the risk of discount rate for this unicorn (enterprise) during maturity

第二个，即便是进入了成熟期
The second, even if it has entered maturity

独角兽企业它的业务跟一般企业不同
Unicorn Enterprise Its business is different from that of a general business

它仍然存在着高速增长的可能性和波动的可能性
It still has the possibility of rapid growth and the possibility of volatility

因此还必须考虑你的折现率怎么样反映这部分的风险
Therefore, you must also consider how your discount rate reflects this part of the risk

对于独角兽企业而言，它的这个所谓的折现率在你评估时点的时候
For unicorn companies, this so-called discount rate is at the time of your assessment

你要考虑到一点，由于独角兽企业在未来的发展过程当中
You have to take a point, because the unicorn company is in the process of development in the future

它的成长和变化性仍然是很大的
Its growth and variability are still very large

因此它现有资产和现有资产相关的风险
Therefore, the risks associated with its existing assets and existing assets

以及它未来的增长性资产增长的业务之间的风险是存在差异的
And the risks between the business of its future growth asset growth are different

举个例子来说，前段时间小米在香港上市
For example, Xiaomi was listed in Hong Kong some time ago

这个资本市场上对于小米的这个估值定价有个讨论
This capital market has a discussion on this valuation of Xiaomi

就是界定小米究竟是一家什么公司
It is to define what company Xiaomi is

因为小米认为自己是一家互联网公司
Because Xiaomi thinks that he is an internet company

但资本市场上的主流意见认为小米是一家手机公司
But the mainstream opinion in the capital market is that Xiaomi is a mobile phone company

作为手机公司和作为互联网公司这两个角度切入的话
As a mobile phone company and as an Internet company, these two angles

对于小米本身的估值就会产生很大的差异
The valuation of Xiaomi itself will make a big difference

比如作为手机公司
For example, as a mobile phone company

今天市场上给出的估值上限就是300到500亿美元
The upper limit of the valuation given on the market today is 30 to 50 billion US dollars

而作为一家互联网公司
And as an internet company

雷军或者说市场就会认为小米的估值接近1000亿美元
Lei Jun or the market will think that the valuation of Xiaomi is close to 100 billion US dollars

为什么会出现这样的差异？
Why is there such a difference?

实际上这个地方你看到的小米的手机业务
Actually, this place, you see the mobile phone business of Xiaomi

就是我们所谈的现有资产，显然它是一个较为稳定的风险水平
It is the existing assets we are talking about, obviously it is a relatively stable risk level

而小米把自己界定为互联网公司
Xiaomi defines himself as an Internet company

它未来要走所谓的这个智能互联的道路
In the future, it will take the so-called road of intelligent interconnection

它要发展生态链公司，它要发展它的电商平台
It wants to develop an eco-chain company, which wants to develop its e-commerce platform

那么从这个角度去界定小米的话
Then, from this perspective, to define the words of Xiaomi

反映的主要是小米的增长型业务和增长型资产的风险
The main reflection is the risk of Xiaomi's growth business and growth assets

所以你在评估小米的时候，你选择小米的折现率的时候
So when you evaluate Xiaomi, when you choose the discount rate of Xiaomi

你怎么样把这两个方面的风险分别予以反映？
How do you reflect the risks of these two aspects separately?

然后看他们怎么样影响我们对小米未来收益预测
Then see how they affect our prediction of Xiaomi's future earnings

小米的这个收益折现之后形成的小米整体估值的结果
The result of the overall valuation of Xiaomi formed after the discount of this income of Xiaomi

那么对于折现率的这样一个我们讲的这个判断
Then for the discount rate, this one we judged

一个很重要的这个参数就是贝塔系数
A very important parameter is the beta coefficient

使用这个折现率，使用DCF方法对独角兽企业进行评估
Using this discount rate, use the DCF method to evaluate unicorn companies

贝塔的计算是一个很有挑战性的问题
Beta's calculation is a very challenging issue

因为基本上贝塔它需要一个我们讲的长期的历史数据回归
Because basically Beta needs a long-term historical data regression that we are talking about

反映单个企业的收益率
Reflect the profitability of a single business

跟整体市场之间收益率的关系
The relationship between the rate of return and the overall market

那很显然
That is obvious

这个条件在我们去找寻这个独角兽企业本身的这样一个贝塔值的时候是存在问题的
This condition is problematic when we look for such a beta value of the unicorn company itself

那么可能就有以下两个思考
Then there may be two thoughts,

第一个，就是当我们去使用所谓的这个贝塔值的时候
The first one is when we use the so-called beta value

我们尽量的用业务组合或者是用行业贝塔时
We try our best to use the business combination or when using the industry beta

替代个股的贝塔值
Replace the beta of the stock

因为使用行业或者业务组合的贝塔值相比个股而言
Because the beta value of the industry or business combination is compared to individual stocks

更能够比较好地反映企业在这个发展过程中所面对的行业风险
It can better reflect the industry risks faced by enterprises in this development process

第二个，就是今天的这个独角兽企业都是具有颠覆性的创新性的企业
The second is that today's unicorn company is a disruptive and innovative company

你是没有办法找到长期的历史收益数据作为它贝塔计算的基础
You have no way to find long-term historical income data as the basis of its Beta calculations

那怎么办？
What should I do?

我思考的一个问题就是今天也许我们的这个行业是个新行业
One of the problems I am thinking about is that today our industry is a new industry

但是它满足的需求可能跟传统的旧行业是具有同质化的
But the demand it satisfies may be homogenous to the traditional old industry

比如今天无论你是去评估
For example, today, whether you are evaluating or not

就是我们讲的提供新闻的新浪门户网站
We are talking about the Sina portal that provides news

比如新浪也好，搜狐也好
For example, Sina or Sohu

还是评估今天的这个在移动端提供新闻资讯的今日头条也好
Or evaluate today's headlines that provide news on the mobile side,

在模式上、在行业界定上、在它的发展速度上
In terms of model, industry definition, and its speed of development

它可能跟被颠覆的旧媒体行业都有很大的差异
It may be very different from the subversive old media industry

但在我的角度而言，对于这些公司而言
But from my perspective, for these companies

旧媒体行业，新媒体行业
The old media industry, the new media industry

他们最终满足的用户需求都具有高度的一致性
The user requirements they ultimately meet are highly consistent

因此到一定阶段之后
So after a certain period

我就认为创新型的新媒体它所能实现的收益率
I think that innovative new media can achieve the rate of return

它能够实现的所谓的跟市场之间的这样一个波动关系
It can achieve such a fluctuating relationship with the market

很可能会跟旧媒体行业的这样一个所谓的数据
It’s likely that it’s going to be like the old media industry’s so-called data

具有一定的一致性和雷同性
Have a certain consistency and similarity

所以这就是我对贝塔计算的第二个思考
So this is my second thought on beta computing

是不是能够选择旧行业替代的方式来找寻贝塔的计算路径？
Is it possible to choose the old industry alternative way to find the calculation path of beta?