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你好, 欢迎来到中南财经政法大学
Hello, welcome to zhongnan university of economics and law's

慕课课堂——《互联网企业估值》
mooc class -- Internet enterprise valuation

今天 我们就一起来学习一下
Today we will learn about

互联网企业估值的案例分析
the case analysis of Internet enterprise valuation

也就是实际操作的部分
which is the practical part

在这一部分
In this part

我们就选择了三个有中国特点的互联网企业
we choose three Internet enterprises with Chinese characteristics

包括了斗鱼直播、 今日头条和蚂蚁金服
including douyu live, today's headline and ant financial

我们会把我们在之前给大家一起讲授和学习的
We will use some of the valuation methods of Internet enterprises

一些互联网企业估值的方法
that we have taught and learned together before

在这一部分来运用
in this section

首先,必须要声明的是
First of all, it must be stated that

我们选择的这些企业案例 ,仅仅是为了教学的需要
the enterprise cases we choose are only for the needs of teaching

所以在这个过程中, 所用到的任何的数据 方法 模型
so any data methods models and conclusions

以及估值的结论和结果, 都不代表任何的立场
and results of valuation used in this process do not represent any position

也不作为任何机构估值的一个依据
nor do they serve as a basis for any institution valuation

所以我希望你首先明白这一点
So before we start with the case

在此之后我们, 再来开始这个案例的分析
I want you to understand this firstly

首先 ,我们来看一下, 斗鱼直播这样的一个
First, let's take a look at the valuation of an Internet company

互联网企业的估值
like douyu live

斗鱼直播 它是一个在网络上
Douyu live broadcast is an Internet enterprise that

来进行直播业务的 一个互联网企业
carries out live broadcasting on the Internet

它的口号是“每个人的直播平台”
Its slogan is "everyone's live broadcast platform"

这家企业 ,它是一家弹幕式 的直播分享网站
The enterprise is a live streaming sharing site for the pop-up event

为用户提供了视频直播和赛事直播的服务
which provides users with live video and event broadcasts

那么它的前身 ,其实是一家叫做ACFUN放送的直播网站
And its predecessor, was actually a live webcast called ACFUN

从2014年的1月1号起
from January 1 2014

这家公司正式更名为斗鱼tv
The company officially changed its name to douyu TV

我也很高兴的一件事情, 就是
One thing I'm also very happy about is

这个公司 它的总部就在武汉
that this company’s headquarters is in wuhan

它是武汉的第一家互联网的独角兽企业
and it is the first Internet unicorn enterprise in wuhan

斗鱼平台是以游戏直播为主
Douyu is mainly a game live broadcast platform

涵盖了体育、 综艺、 娱乐、 户外等等 多种直播的内容
covering sports, entertainment, outdoor and other live content

从它创立至今, 短短的三年时间里面
In the short three years since its establishment

它已经被风投多次的关注和投资
it has been paid much attention and invested by venture capital

比如说2014年的4月1号
For example on April 1 2014

斗鱼直播就在天使轮得到了奥飞娱乐公司
douyu live broadcast got an investment of

2000万人民币的投资
20 million RMB from aofer entertainment in angel round

2014年的9月17号
On September 17 2014

斗鱼直播又获得了红杉资本的A轮投资
douyu live received another round of investment from sequoia capital

达到了数百万美元的一个投资额度
which reached an investment quota of several million dollars

2016年的3月15日
On March 15 2016

斗鱼直播获得了
douyu live obtained b-round venture capital

包括腾讯 、南山资本、 红杉资本
including tencent, nanshan capital and sequoia capital

这些风投在内的B轮风投, 金额就高达1亿美元
and the amount was as high as $100 million

2016年的8月15号
On August 15 2016

以腾讯红杉资本
some venture capital led by tencent, sequoia capital

深圳创投、 国中创投和南山资本为领衔的
shenzhen venture capital

这样一些风投继续地对斗鱼直播
guozhong venture capital and nanshan capital

投入了15亿人民币的C轮的风投
continued to invest 1.5 billion RMB in round C venture

2017年的上半年
In the first half of 2017

斗鱼又获得了D轮风投
douyu received another round of D venture capital investment of

高达10亿人民币
up to 1 billion yuan

这一次的投资方主要是
this time it was mainly

招银国际 南山资本
invested by China merchants bank international, nanshan capita

禾母基金等等
mother-of-two fund and so on

2018年的3月8日
On March 8 2018

斗鱼直播获得了腾讯领衔的6.3亿美元的E轮融资
douyu live received a $630 million e-round financing led by tencent

那么离它上市的进程是越来越近了
so the process of its listing is getting closer

在这样的一个背景之下
In this context

我们来了解一下斗鱼的一些关键的数据
let's take a look at some key data about douyu

斗鱼tv在用户和流量数据方面
In terms of user and traffic data of douyu TV

根据权威的官方统计 ALEX数据统计
according to the authoritative official statistics of ALEX

截至到2018年的上半年
by the first half of 2018

斗鱼tv已经进入全国的前30名
douyu TV has ranked among the top 30 in the country

在游戏类直播平台中, 是位列第一的
ranking the first among game broadcast platforms

通过媒体端的数据显示
According to data from the media side

斗鱼的月活跃用户数量, 在2017年的11月份
the number of monthly active users of douyu

已经接近了2亿人
was close to 200 million in November 2017

日均的活跃用户数量, 超过了3000万人
with the daily number of active users exceeding 30 million

这是一个非常 令人乍舌的数据 ,对吧?
That's a pretty impressive number, right?

因为我们前面就讲过
As we said before

很多互联网企业
the value of many internet businesses is determined

它的价值是由这个用户的数量
by the number of users

也就是 我们讲的流量来决定的
the traffic that we're talking about

在另外一方面, 我们也了解到
On the other hand, we also know that

就是这个斗鱼 网络直播APP的市场渗透率
the market penetration rate of this douyu webcast APP is

在整个行业里面, 在这个细分市场也是最高的
the highest in the whole industry and the market segment

我们来看这个统计数据
Let's look at the statistics

截至2018年2月份
Up to February 2018

斗鱼APP的市场渗透率的数据达到了4.25%
the market penetration rate of douyu APP reached 4.25%

在它后面是虎牙直播和YY
followed by tiger tooth live and YY

这个数据分别是3.61%和3.33%
which were 3.61% and 3.33% respectively

除此以外, 就日均的活跃用户数量来说
In addition, in terms of daily active users

斗鱼直播 ,也是一直在直播这个领域
douyu live has been far ahead of its competitors

遥遥领先于它的竞争对手的
in the field of live broadcast

比如,我们看这个统计数据
For example, let’s look at the statistics

它显示了在2017年的9月份到2018年的2月份期间
it shows that the average daily active users of douyu live

斗鱼直播的日均的活跃用户数量, 达到了670.8万人
from September 2017 to February 2018 reached 670.8 million

那排在它后面的YY 就只有580.6万
and the number of YY behind it was only 580.6 million

还有虎牙直播是474.6万
and that of tiger tooth live was 4.746 million

通过这两个数据的对比, 我们都可以看出
Based on the comparison between these two data, we can see that

在网络直播 这样的一个细分领域里面
douyu TV has the absolute leading market share

斗鱼tv是有绝对领先的市场份额和市场地位的
and market position in a segment like network broadcast

接下来, 我们就引用梅特卡夫定律
Next, we use Metcalfe's law

以及在梅特卡夫定律基础之上, 延伸而来的DEVA的模型
and the model of DEVA which is extended from Metcalfe's law

对斗鱼直播的互联网企业价值进行评估
to evaluate the Internet enterprise value of douyu

这个DVA的模型
This model of the DVA

其实是就是被称之为互联网女皇的玛丽米克尔
which is actually first proposed in 1995 by Mary meeker

在1995年的时候首次提出的
the queen of the Internet

它的基础, 其实就是我们在前面的内容中
and it's based on the Moore's law and Metcalfe's law

跟大家讲过的摩尔定律 和梅特卡夫定律
that we talked about earlier.

它有两个主要的观点
It has two main points

第一个 ,就是认为互联网企业
The first is that the Internet enterprise is

是具有动态性 、开发性盈利模式
operated under dynamic and developmental profit mode

创新性非常显著的这样的特点的企业
with significant innovation

其次呢，就是认为用户的资源
Secondly, the resources of the users is

是互联网企业创造价值的关键的资源
the key resources of enterprises to create value

因此 DEVA的模型是把用户资源
therefore the model of the DEVA takes the user resources

作为企业价值产生的根本来源
as a fundamental source of enterprise value

而且, 它把企业用户 甚至潜在的企业用户
moreover, it regards the enterprise users and even potential users

也都作为一个企业盈利的渠道进行考量
as corporate earnings channels to evaluate

它的估值模型 其实很简单
The valuation model is actually very simple

你看 E等于MC的平方
as you can see, E equals MC squared

看起来是不是很像爱因斯坦的光电速率方程公式呢?
doesn't it look a lot like Einstein's photoelectric rate formula?

在这个（公式）里面
In this formula

E代表了被评估的互联网企业 的市场价值
E represents the market value of the Internet enterprise evaluated

M代表了企业初始投入资本
and M represents the initial capital invested

比上当前有效用户数量
divide the current number of users

它的含义, 是企业单体投入的初始资本
which means the initial cost of monomer input

那么C代表了单个用户给企业带来的净收益
the C represents the enterprise's net incomes a single user brings

乘以当前有效用户的数量
multiplied by the number of the currently valid user

它代表了企业的用户价值
it represents the user value of the enterprise

整个互联网企业的这个价值评估的模型
The value evaluation model of the entire Internet enterprise

对于C是取了平方的
choose the square of C

而这里的平方就体现了, 包括摩尔定律和梅特卡夫定律
and the square here reflects the law that the enterprise value

所揭示的互联网行业的
will present a power exponential growth trend

企业价值是随着用户的数量
as the number of users increases

增长呈现出这样的一个幂指数增长趋势的 这样的一个规律
which is similar with Moore's law and Metcalfe's law

好, 所以 ,我们就用这样的一个模型来度量
Ok ,so let's measure it with a model like this

根据我们刚才所获得的一些数据和资料
According to the data and information we have received

我们就来计算, 斗鱼直播网站的单体投入的初始资本
we will calculate the initial cost of monomer input of douyu

M它是等于企业的初始投资成本
M equals to the initial cost of the enterprise

这个我们刚刚讲到了是2000万
this we just talked about is 20 million

然后, 它当前的有效用户数量是2020万
and then, its current valid user number is 20.2 million

好, 那我们把这个2000万除以2020万
ok, so we put this 20.2 million divided by 20 million

得到的是0.99元每人
the result was 0.99 yuan per person

也就是说 ,对于斗鱼直播这个互联网企业来说
That is to say, for the Internet enterprise like douyu live broadcast

它的单体投入的初始成本是等于九毛九分钱的
the initial cost of its monomer input is equal to ninety nine cents

然后接下来, 我们就来计算它的C 这个用户的市场价值
and then ,we will calculate C the market value of its user

好 ,那我们这里其实就要做一些预测
Ok ,we actually have to do some forecast here

首先 我们预测这个企业在稳定时候
First of all, we predict the enterprise in a stable market

能够给企业带来的总收益 大约是在300万
can bring total revenue of about 3 million

然后企业达到一个市场稳定状态时候
and when the enterprise achieve a market of stable state

用户数量大约是五个亿
the number of users is about 0.5billion

我们把这个数据代到C的计算公式里面
we put the data into the calculation formula of C

就得到这个用户的市场价值是121200元
so the user's market value is $121200

好 ,然后把M和C这两个参数的计算结果
Ok, and then you plug in the calculation of M and C

代入到DEVA的估值模型里面
into the valuation model of DEVA

就得到了斗鱼公司的市场价值
and you will get the market value of douyu company

是E等于mc的平方
using the formula that E equals MC squared

算出来的结果大约是145.44亿元 约合21亿美元
is about 14.544 billion yuan, or about 2.1 billion dollars

这个结果, 跟这个中国的科技部在2017年
The result is comparable to the

所公布的中国独角兽企业的估值
Chinese unicorn company's valuation of $1.5 billion

对斗鱼公司的估值 是15亿美元（相比）
announced by the ministry of science and technology in 2017

其实这个量级是相当的
In fact ,the magnitude is similar

也就是说, 还是比较接近 出入并没有那么大的
which means the difference is not so great

那么我们也做了 一个敏感性的分析
Then we also do a sensitivity analysis

我们把当前有效用户数量 分别取2000 2500万
we choose the current valid user numbers 2000 2500

和3000万的时候
and 30 million respectively

那么在市场相对稳定的时候
so when the market is relatively stable

这个企业创造收益的用户数量分别取 4亿 5亿
the number of users creating returns are 400 million 500 million

和6亿 这三组不同的数据的时候
and 600 million respectively

那么对这个企业的估值
so the enterprise's valuation

就会呈现出一个动态变化的 敏感性分析的区间特征
will present a dynamic range characteristics of sensitivity analysis

这一点也是为了帮助我们的学习者
this point is to help our learners

来理解我们前面所做的预测
to understand the predictions we made before

它是可以有一个动态幅度的这样的一个区间化的分析的
it has a dynamic range of such a interval analysis

不过到这一点
However, at this point

我想所有的学习者 跟我一样都要去 反思的一个问题是
I think all learners, like me, have to reflect on the problem

这里面的M还是比较容易确定的
that M is relatively easy to determine

但是C这个价值它非常关键
but the value of C is very critical

因为它是以平方来计算这个企业价值的
because it is calculated on the square of the enterprise value

可是它却是一个预测值
but it is a predicted value

所以你看, 即便是用市场法 成本法
So you will see, even using the market method, the cost method

收益法，或者是什么BS期权定价法
the return method or some BS option pricing method

或者其他的方法
or some other method

我们都离不开对这个互联网企业的预测
we can't do without forecasting the Internet business

而这个预测又是建立在对这个企业的
This prediction is based on the comprehensive influence of

产品、 服务 、团队、 市场 、微观和宏观
many conditions and elements on the product

很多的条件和要素的综合影响之后
service, team, market micro and macro of this enterprise

才能够做出这样一个判断的
and then make the decision

只要是预测呢, 又不可能避免有误差
As long as it is a prediction, it is impossible to avoid error

所以这个里面仍然是
so there is still a lot

存在着很多值得质疑, 值得被批判和讨论的地方
to be questioned and discussed

作为抛砖引玉的一部分
As part of the introduction

我们这个对斗鱼公司企业价值的分析评估
our analysis of the douyu company enterprise value assessment

我在前面已经强调过 而不代表任何的立场
I have been stressed before does not represent any position

只是作为教学讨论之用
it is only for the use of teaching discussion

那么我们分析过程和结论
and our analysis process and the conclusion

也仅仅是作为一个教学的方式
are only as ways of teaching

我们把这块砖头抛出来
we throw a sprat to

希望引发大家的思考和讨论
raise your consideration and discussion

你来看一下你是如何预测和分析斗鱼公司的这样一些关键指标
How will you predict and analyse those key indicators of douyu

你怎样判断斗鱼公司价值几何
how do you judge douyu company worth

好，那我们关于斗鱼公司的企业价值的分析就到这里
Wel,l that's all for our analysis of the business value of douyu company

谢谢大家
Thank you!