Video在线视频

好, 那么讲完了斗鱼直播的这个企业估值之后
Ok, so after we finish the business valuation of douyu live

我们再来看一下第二个案例
let's look at the second case

分析对象今日头条
and analyze the subject of today's headlines

说实在话 ,今天的国人不仅仅是中国人
Indeed , today's Chinese people are not only Chinese

甚至全世界的消费者 可能都已经习惯了
but consumers around the world may be accustomed

拿起手机来看新闻的这样的一个习惯
to picking up their mobile phones to watch news

往日的报纸 、电视或者其他的传递新闻价值的终端
Newspapers TV and other terminals delivering news value

现在很少被人们利用
are rarely used by people nowadays

但是手机就变成了
However， mobile phone has become

我们获取新闻不可缺少的一个终端
an indispensable terminal for us to obtain news

这既是移动互联网的时代
This is the era of mobile Internet

也是 可以说像今日头条 这样的企业的时代
and also the era of enterprises like today's headlines

今天中午吃饭的时候
At lunch time

我还在跟两个朋友讨论, 今日头条到底是怎样创造价值的
I was talking to two friends about how headlines create value

这是一个非常有趣的故事
It's a very interesting story

我们就来从今日头条, 到底是一家什么样的企业开始吧
Let's start with what kind of business today’s headline is

首先, 这个今日头条
Firstly, this today’s headline,

它是2012年的3月份由张一鸣创建
was created by zhang yiming in March 2012

2012年的8月份就发布了它的第一个版本
Its first version was released in August 2012

到了2014年的时候 今日头条 每天其实只有几百万的活跃用户
By 2014 toutiao had only a few million active users each day

为了做到它的产品可以 被大家所接受和信任
and the company had done a lot of business innovation

这个公司做了大量的业务创新
to make its products acceptable and trustworthy

首先 ,他们招聘 大量的产品经理和运营
First, they recruit a large number of product managers and operations

然后 用数据驱动的思维 进行了非常详细的能力的构建
and then build very detailed capabilities with data-driven thinking

比如说, 今日头条 他成立了 数据平台的团队
For example, in today's headlines it set up a data platform team

把数据基础设施
that encapsulates data infrastructure

像 Hadoop 、Hive、 Spark、 Kylin等等 封装成工具
such as Hadoop, Hive, Spark, Kylin and so on

然后把这些工具结合通用的分析模式
into tools that combine common analysis patterns

整合成完整的解决方案
into complete solutions

再把这些解决方案, 通过平台的形式提供给业务部门来使用
that can be used by business units in the form of platforms

现在 ,今日头条 每一天要处理的数据量 是7.8billion
Now the amount of data to be processed every day is 7.8billion

训练的样本量达到200亿条
the sample size of training is 20 billion

服务器的总量 达到了4万台
the total number of servers is 40,000

Hadoop的点 达到了3000台
and the number of Hadoop points is 3,000

在这样的海量数据 、基础设施的支撑之下
Backed by such massive data infrastructure

今日头条很快就成长为互联网资讯媒体行业
today's headlines soon grew into

成长最快的互联网企业
one of the fastest-growing Internet companies

或者说独角兽企业之一
or unicorns in the Internet media industry

今日头条 ,它有一个很强的 技术属性决定论
Today's headlines has a strong technical attribute of determinism

它认为它的技术优先
It believes that its technology priority

使得它的价值观和态度,主要来源于用户
makes its values and attitudes mainly come from users

这也是移动互联的新闻媒体
which is also one of the biggest differences

跟门户网站最大的差别之一
between the mobile Internet news media and portal websites

基于这样的一种价值观
Based on such a value

今日头条 创造了一种
today's headlines create a kind of

互联网加新闻领域的去中心化
decentralization of the Internet plus the news field

或者说真正意义上的用户中心化
or in the real sense, user-centralization

可能 当我讲这些概念的时候
Maybe when I talk about these concepts

你觉得很绕口
you think it's a bit of a mouthful

什么去中心化 ?什么用户中心化?
what is decentralization? What is user-centric?

到底什么意思?
What exactly does that mean?

其实你装一下 今日头条（APP）
In fact, if you install today's headline (APP)

你就知道了, 你就会有深刻的体验。
you will know and you will have a profound experience

如果你点击今日头条中的某一两条新闻
If you click on one or two news of today's headlines

比如说健身的, 或者美食的 ,你就会发现
such as fitness or gourmet you'll find

在接下来的一周或者一个月里面
that over the next week or month

它每天都在定向的, 向你推送关于健身或者美食方面的新闻
it will push news like that to you every day

以至于你就觉得
so that you're like

哇 ,这个APP好像就是为我量身定做的
wow, This APP seems to be tailor-made for me

这个就是用户中心化的体现之一
This is one of the manifestations of user-centralization

当然它的含义不仅仅止于此
but it's more than that

那我们 来看一些数据
So let's look at some data

到2016年8月份的时候
By August 2016

今日头条的累计活跃用户数
the cumulative number of active users in headlines today

已经达到了5.3亿
had reached 530 million

而到了2017年的1月份
and by January 2017

它的累计活跃用户数 已经高达7个亿
it had reached 700 million active users

同比增长了84%
up 84% year on year

它的平均日活用户是7800万
Its average daily active user is 78 million

同比增长105%
up 105 percent year-on-year

用户每一次平均 使用今日头条的时长高达76分钟
The average user uses today's headlines for 76 minutes each time

一个多小时啊, 同比增长了38%
more than one hour, increased 38 percent year-on-year

用户平均日阅读量 是35次
The average daily reading volume of users was 35 times

同比增长了58%
up 58 percent year-on-year

你看到这些同比增长的数据
When you see these data year-on-year growth

就要了解, 在互联网行业里面 还有另外一个非常重要的概念
you should understand ,there is another very important concept

叫年均复合增长率
called an average annual compound growth rate in the Internet industry

那么,后面我们会要讲到这样一个概念
which later we will talk of such a concept

就是所有的互联网企业, 你一定要不停的增长
It means that all Internet companies must keep growth

才能让用户和消费者 对你的价值有信心
to let users and consumers have confidence in your value

好, 那我们来回到数据上来看啊
Ok ,then we will return to the data

这个今日头条从2012年创立至今
the today’s headlines since founded in 2012

它的成长速度是非常的惊人的
its growth speed is very alarming

根据易观国际的统计数据来显示
according to analysys international statistics

2016年1月到2017年的2月份
it shows that from January 2016 to February 2017

仅仅只是一年多一点的时间
only a little more than a year's time

今日头条的活跃用户数
today's headlines active users

就从9378万上升到了14828万
has risen from 93.78 million to 148.28 million

就是过亿了 同比增长了58%
with the year-on-year growth of 58%

这个数据已经非常接近
This figure is very close to

互联网加新闻资讯类的第一名
the number of active daily users of Tencent news

腾讯新闻的日均活跃用户数量
the first online news company

那么从用户的平均使用时长来看
In terms of the average user time

有另外一个数据库叫question mobile
there is another database called question mobile

数据统计显示 ,那么2016年至今
Statistics show that since 2016

今日头条的每月平均使用时长 是955分钟
the average monthly usage time of today's headlines is 955 minutes

仅次于微信的1967分钟
second to 1967 minutes of WeChat

我们来看这个统计图表
Let's look at this chart

这个红色的显示的是腾讯 ,作为整个互联网加新闻资讯行业的头牌
The red one shows the change trend of daily active users of Tencent

它的日均活跃用户数量的这个变化趋势
as the leader of the Internet plus news and information industry

蓝色的这条折线，就是反映了今日头条的趋势
While the blue line reflects the trend of today's headlines

你可以看到 ,从2017年年初至今
As you can see, from the beginning of 2017 till now

今日头条在这个日均活跃用户数量方面 已经不逊于
the number of active daily users in today's headlines is

腾讯新闻的, 这样的一个数量和速度
no less than the number and speed of tencent news

已经是可以相匹敌的这样的一个地位了
taking a rival position

从融资的角度, 我们再来了解一下 今日头条的成长经历
In terms of financing, let's take a look at the growth of today's headlines

从2014年开始
Since 2014

今日头条陆续的就收到了
toutiao has received several rounds of venture capital injection

包括 天使投资和风投在内的多轮的风投注入
including angel investment and venture capital investment

比如说2014年6月
For example, in June 2014

今日头条就宣布完成了C轮的1亿美元融资
toutiao announced the completion of round C of $100 million financing

是由红杉资本领投, 微博跟投
led by sequoia capital and followed by weibo

当时的今日头条估值 已经就达到了5亿美元
At that time, toutiao was valued at $500 million

到了2016年年末
By the end of 2016

今日头条又拿到了
toutiao received another $1 billion of d-round financing

红杉资本, 建银国际等方面投资的10亿美元的D轮融资
from sequoia capital CCB international etc.

这个时候 它的估值就已经超过110亿美元
By this time, it was valued at more than $11 billion

到了2017年8月
In August 2017

今日头条进行了新一轮20亿美元的融资
toutiao raised a new $2 billion round of financing

美国的私募股权机构 General Atlantic 领投
led by U.S. private equity firm General Atlantic

在这一轮融资之后 ,今日头条的估值 升至300亿美元
after which toutiao's valuation rose to $30 billion

与新浪微博的市值相当
equivalent to sina weibo's market value

从今日头条这一家互联网企业身上
We can find obvious characteristics of Internet enterprises

我们可以发现 非常明显的互联网企业特征
.from the Internet company today's headlines

我们总结了 主要有三个方面
We have summarized three main aspects

第一个, 就是它的用户数量
The first one is that the number of users

跟市场规模, 呈现出了一种爆发性的增长态势
and market size of the company,present an explosive growth trend

互联网企业的一个重要特征
An important feature of Internet enterprises is

就是它的用户数量 在向市场推广之后
that the number of its users has shown exponential growth

呈现了 指数型的增长
after being promoted to the market

并且这种增长, 能为企业带来流量 带来价值
and such growth can bring traffic and value to enterprises

其实，今日头条在2014年的时候
In fact, the average number of active users

它的平均活跃用户数量 才几百万
was only a few million in 2014

那么仅仅只用三年的时间, 就把这个数据拓展到了1.2亿
so it only took three years to expand the number to 120 million

这确实说明
This really shows that

这个企业的互联网特征, 是非常显著的
the Internet characteristics of this enterprise are very significant

第二个互联网的特征
The second characteristic of the Internet is that

就是这个今日头条的广告体量, 非常庞大
the volume of advertising in today's headlines is very large

而且保持了高速的增长
and it has maintained rapid growth

互联网媒体广告收入 的马太效应
The Matthew effect of Internet media advertising revenue

是十分明显的
is very obvious

社交媒体和智能媒体等先进的互联网媒体
Advanced Internet media such as social media and smart media

正在快速的迭代
are rapidly iterating

传统的门户网站正在示弱
while traditional portals are showing weakness

今日头条的广告收入,呈现出了一个高速增长的态势
Toutiao's advertising revenue presents a rapid growth trend

具有非常明显的互联网企业的特点
which is an obvious characteristics of Internet enterprises

好 那接下来我们就用DEVA的模型
Ok so let's use DEVA's model to do a preliminary assessment

对今日头条 这样的一个互联网企业价值
and analysis of the value of an Internet enterprise

进行 一个初步的评估和分析
like today's headline

首先 ,我们知道
First of all, we know that

它的初始投资成本是一个亿
its initial investment cost is one hundred million

而截至目前 ,它的有效用户数量是1.2亿
and its effective users up to now are 120 million

所以 ,它的M 就等于企业的初始投资成本
so its M is equal to the initial investment cost of the enterprise

除以当前有效用户数量
divided by the current effective users

也就是1个亿除以1.2亿
namely 100 million divided by 120 million

大约是0.83元每人
which is about 0.83 yuan per person

接下来, 我们就计算这个计算头条它的C 这个指标 那么这个指标
Next, we will calculate the index C

首先,我们要测算 ,在市场达到稳定的时候
first ,we need to measure the company's total revenue

这个企业的总收益情况,以及在市场达到稳定的时候
and the volume of the enterprise users when the market

它的企业用户数量
to achieve a sense of stability

而这两个数据 ,我们前面已经讲过都要预测
and the two data we've talked about before are predicted

我们预测这个市场达到稳定状况的时候
We predicted that when the market was stable

今日头条的总收益大约能达到500万
the headline revenue would be about 5 million

然后 ,在市场达到稳定的时候
and then when the market was stable

它的企业用户数量大约能达到10个亿
the number of enterprise users would be about 1 billion

然后 我们把这两个数据 代进去计算
And then we plug those two data in

就可以得到 它的单个用户的净收益是0.005元
and we get a net benefit of $0.005 per user

然后 ,我们用单个用户的净收益
Then, we multiply the net benefit of a single user

再去乘以当前有效用户数量
by the current number of active users

就得到了60万元这样的一个C值
and we get a C value of 600,000 yuan

然后 ,我们把这个值 再代入E等于MC的平方
And then ,we put this value into E equals MC squared

这样的一个计算模型里面
and in a computational model like this

就可以得到今日头条 运用DEVA的模型
we get the enterprise value of today’s headline through DEVA's model

计算得到的企业价值 是等于0.83×60万的平方
which is equal to 0.83 times 600,000 squared

这个结果是2988亿。
turning out to be 298.8 billion yuan

其实我们也把这个结果
In fact, we also compared this result

跟互联网女皇报告
with the valuation results of today's headlines

对于今日头条的估值结果 ,也做了一个对比分析
in the queen of the Internet report

我们发现2018年的互联网趋势报告
We found that the 2018 Internet trends report

对今日头条的估值规模是在300亿美元左右
values today's headlines at around $30 billion

折合人民币大约是2100亿人民币
or roughly $210 billion in yuan

所以我们用DEVA模型, 对今日头条的估值
So our estimate of today's headlines using the DEVA model is

是比这个互联网趋势报告的估值结果稍微高一些的
slightly higher than the estimated results of this Internet trends report

当然 ,这也反映了我们的预期 是比较乐观的
Of course , this also reflects our optimistic expectations

我们对运用DEVA模型来评估
and we have a favorable psychological expectation

今日头条的价值 ,是持有利好的这样一个心理预期的
to use the DEVA model to evaluate the value of today's headlines

好 ,那么这一部分, 也仅仅是作为一个参考
Ok, so this part can be used as a reference

希望你可以通过这个模型的分析
hope you can further get familiar with and understand

进一步的熟悉和了解 DEVA模型
the application of DEVA model in Internet enterprise value assessment

在互联网企业价值评估中的运用
through the analysis of this model

好 ,那这一节的内容就到此结束
Ok ,that's the end of this section

谢谢
Thank you!