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那我们学习了这么多有关企业价值评估的方法之后呢
After learning so many methods about enterprise value assessment

有必要做一个初步的总结和梳理
it is necessary to make a preliminary summary and comb

事实上，在企业价值评估中
In fact ,there are many problems to be

有很多需要注意的问题
paid attention to in enterprise value assessment

比如说,我们就结合
For example, we combined

教学和实践中的一些发现
some findings in teaching and practice

总结出了这样的六个误区
and concluded such six misunderstandings

所谓的误区,也就是说是错误的观点
A mistake is a wrong idea

比如说,第一个误区
For example, the first mistake

有很多人认为
there are many people who believe

估价模型是定量的
that the valuation model is quantitative

所以估值结果就是客观的
so the valuation results are objective

这个观点肯定是错的
which is definitely wrong

因为我们讲估值就是说
Because we're talking about valuation which is

给这个资产或这个企业的市场价值
giving an approximate estimate

给了一个大约的估计
of the market value of this asset or this enterprise

那这个估计,就一定是存在着
that estimate must have all sorts of errors or effects

各种各样的这个误差或者是影响
so it's hard to say that the outcome of the valuation

所以,你很难讲企业估值的结果就是客观的或者是准确的
of the enterprise is objective or accurate

第二个误区
The second myth

就是说研究周全或者实施稳定的定价
that research is thorough or that stable pricing is done

不受时间的限制
without time constraints

恰恰相反
is precisely the opposite

事实上,我们在对企业价值进行评估的时候
In fact, when we evaluate enterprise value

不仅受到时间的制约
we are not only limited by time

而且受到空间的制约
but also limited by space

在不同的时间段 ,不同的时间点
The value of the business can vary greatly

这个企业的价值可能会有很大的变化
over different time periods and at different points

所以在金融学里面经常讲的
So a concept which is often speak in finance

一个概念叫做择时
called a selection

就是什么时候是正确的时机进入?
when is the right time to enter?

什么时候是正确的时机退出?
when is the right time to quit?

如果你有很好的择时的能力的话
if you have a good timing ability

你就可以在这个动态变化的资本市场上
you can on the dynamic change of the capital market

获得丰厚的回报
to reap rewards

但是,如果你对于时间的理解是很糟糕的话
but if you understanding of the time is very bad

那就可能被当成韭菜了
that might be as leeks

事实上,这个我们讲的企业的估价
In fact, the valuation of the enterprise we're talking about

不仅受时间的影响
is influenced not only by time

也受空间的影响
but also by space

因为同样是在这个全球化的资本市场上
Because this is the same global capital market

那么美股、中国的资本市场
then the U.S. equity market, the Chinese capital market

或者是香港资本市场它是被区隔开的
or the Hong Kong capital market is segregated

那么不同的地理范围不同的资本市场
So different geography, different capital market

它的这种制度、范围 、条件都不一样
its system， scope and conditions are different

对于同样一家企业
for the same company

它的价值判断也会经常出现很大的差异
its value judgment is often can appear a big difference

所以我们要理解
so it is very important to understand

时间和空间都是非常重要的一些影响因素
both time and space are important factors

会导致我们对企业价值的误判
which will lead to our miscalculation of enterprise value

那么第三个误区 ，就是说好的估值分析
The third myth is that good valuation analysis

能对企业价值做出精确的估算
can make accurate estimates of enterprise value

其实这个跟我们刚才说第一个误区是类似的
Well this is similar to the first myth we just talked about

那什么叫做好的估值？
what's a good valuation？

什么叫坏的估值？
What is a bad valuation？

其实往往我们对这个事情作出判断的时候
In fact ，we often make a judgment on this matter

都是一个事后的判断
when it is an afterthought

只有当这个结果出来的时候
It is only when this result comes out

我们才能知道我们的估值是好的
that we will know whether our valuation is good

或者是接近这个结果的
or close to it or relative to it

还是说相对来说偏离这个结果的
or diviate from the result

那么好的估值,它一定是能够反映
A good valuation must reflect

这个资产或者是企业的内在价值的
the intrinsic value of the asset or enterprise

能够对这个企业所生存的
It can make accurate judgment

外部环境和内部条件作出
and in-depth analysison the external environment

准确的判断和深入的分析的
and internal conditions of the enterprise

第四个误区 ,是认为模型越是定量化
The fourth myth is that the more quantitative the model

就越好
the better

这个观点也是非常偏颇的
this is unfair

其实现在在所有的社会科学领域里面
Now in all social science

几乎都有这样的一个趋势
both economics and management science

不管是经济学还是管理学
sociology or other related social sciences

还是社会学或者其他相关的社会科学
actually almost have such a trend

都是觉得一篇论文或者是一个估值的分析,要有越多模型
that more model a paper or a valuation analysis have

它这个结果就越好
better the result is

或者他的水平就越高
or higher his level is

那么我们从这个企业估值的角度来说
From the perspective of enterprise valuation

认为这个观点是非常错误的
we think this view is very wrong

有很多时候简易的原则
There are many times when easy principles

或者是简单的原则
or simple principles

就能够用最高效的方法
can take us to the most efficient decisions

把我们带向最高效的决策
in the most efficient way

第五个误区,就是希望通过估值来赚钱
A fifth myth is that in order to make money from valuations

必须假设市场是无效的
you have to assume that the market is ineffective

那这个呢,有个很重要的前提
So there's a very important premise

就是我们对于有效市场的一个假设
which is our analysis of a hypothesis

以及它的限制条件的一个分析
of an efficient market and its constraints

那么,通过估值来赚钱
So to make money by valuation

符合我们经济人的理性假设
in accordance with our assumption of rational economic man

这个没有问题
this is no problem

但是市场在什么时候是有效的
but when markets are efficient

有效的程度和范围有多深有多广
and how wide effective degree and scope is

这个必须通过各种基本面分析
which must be through a variety of fundamental analysis and

和技术分析来作出判断和决策
technical analysis to make a judgment and decision making

不能简单的就是假设这个市场无效
not simplely assuming that the market is invalid

而事实上，我们对企业价值进行评估的时候呢
In fact ，when we evaluate enterprise value

往往要对这个价值类型进行提前的界定
we often define this value type in advance

比如说,它是市场价值还是非市场价值
such as whether it is market value or non-market value

那么非市场价值面又分为
The non-market value aspect is also divided into

投资价值 、担保价值、 抵押价值等等
an investment value ,guarantee value, mortgage value etc.

所以这个假设是很重要的
so this assumption is very important

而这种假设,往往跟我们的有效市场
and this assumption is often closely related to the premise

假设的前提或者假说是密切关联的
or hypothesis of our efficient market hypothesis

第六个误区呢
The sixth myth is that

就是很多人认为,这个企业估值重要的是估值的结果
a lot of people thinkresult of the valuation is important

估价的过程无关紧要
and the valuation process is irrelevant

这个也是不对的
that's not true

那么,结果虽然是我们决策的一个参考依据
although the result is a reference for our decision

但是整个企业价值分析的过程往往是我们
the whole process of enterprise value analysis

判定这个结果是否合理 ,是否靠谱的
is often a very important basis for us to determine

非常重要的依据
whether the result is reasonable or reliable

比如说,在它的估价过程中
For example, in its valuation process

它到底假设的前提是什么 ?价值类型是什么?
what does it assume? What are the value types?

它对于这些关键的参数的选择
What is the basis for the selection

和计算的过程依据何在？
and calculation of these key parameters？

这些依据能不能被市场所检验或者接受?
Can these criteria be tested or accepted by the market？

比如说,像这个DCF方法中
For example,in the DCF method

那我们对折现率的选择,就非常的关键
the choice of discount rate is very critical

那你的折现率的选取和计算过程
Then whether your discount rate

到底是不是合理
selection and calculation process are reasonable or not

最终就会决定,这个企业价值的
will ultimately determine whether the

估值结果是否合理
valuation result of the enterprise value is reasonable

所以说,结果虽然重要
Therefore ,although the result is important

但是过程也非常的重要
the process is also very important

那这六个误区,都是我们在进行企业价值评估
So these six myths are some of the areas

运用不同的方法的时候
that we need to pay special attention to when we're doing

需要特别去注意的一些地方
value appraisals and using different approaches

尽可能去避免那些地方
and avoid as much as possible

接下来,我们花一点时间
Next, we will spend a little time on the whole enterprise

对整个企业价值评估方法做一个梳理和总结
value assessment method to do a review and summary

其实,不管是互联网企业还是其他行业的企业
Actually ,whether Internet companies or other companies

我们常用的评估方法无外乎
we commonly used evaluation methods

成本法、市场法、收益法
cost method, market method and income method

那么,尤其是对于互联网企业
then especially for Internet companies that

这种具有高度不确定性、高速的成长性
have a high degree of uncertainty, the high-speed growth

和快速变革的特征的企业来说
and rapid change of the characteristics of the enterprise

用这个市盈率的乘数法
with the p/e multiplier method

或者是现金流折现法,是市场上
or discounted cash flow technique is some methods

比较常用的一些方法
which are frequently used in the market

那么不同的企业类型
Different types of enterprises have

它的这个价值决定的关键因素不同
different key factors in this value determination

也会对评估方法的选择造成影响
which will also affect the selection of evaluation methods

比如说,像在一般的制造业里面
Like in the general manufacturing

那么决定这些企业价值的关键因素
the key factors of deciding the enterprise value are

主要是,比如说这个企业的财务的状况
mainly as the enterprise's financial condition

比如,它生产销售的情况如何
such as how was its production and sales?

它的存货怎么样?
and how was its inventory?

它存货周转率如何?
what was its inventory turnover?

它企业内部结构如何?
how was its internal structure?

比如说它的组织结构
such as its organization structure

它的战略结构
its strategic structure

然后这个企业的产品质量怎么样?
And what about the quality of the product?

产品的寿命如何?
What is the life of the product?

这个企业的客户类型是怎样的?
What is the customer type of this enterprise?

是有大量的客户呢?
Is there a large number of customers?

还是有只有一两家客户?
or is there just one or two customers?

那这也决定了这个企业
and that determines the bargaining power

去跟他的客户讨价还价的力量
of the business with its customers

那么企业有没有足够多的专利?
Does the enterprise have enough patents?

专利的质量如何?
what about the quality of patents?

是发明专利比较多呢?
more invention patents?

还是外观设计与实用新型比较多?
more design and utility models?

然后有没有其他的一些无形资产?
and then does it have some other intangible assets？

然后最后企业的地点在哪?
Where is the last enterprise located？

这个也非常重要
This is also very important

因为这个地点在我们经济学
because this place is in our economics

或者经济地理学里面,是称之为location
or economic geography it's called location

它的区位，这个区位反映了它跟它上下游
This location reflects the distance between it

或者客户或者是这个市场的这种距离
and its upstream or downstream customers or the market

最后都会转嫁为它的成本
which is eventually passed on to the cost

或者价值创造过程中的一些影响因素
or value creation process

所以制造型的企业
So manufacturing enterprises

当我们理解了它的价值决定的关键因素之后
when we understand the key factors that determine their value

我们就可以选择它的一些方法
we can choose some of its methods

到底是市场法
whether it is the market method or

还是成本法还是收益法
the cost method or the benefit method

那么对于服务业中的批发业
Then for the wholesale industry in the service industry

一般来说
generally speaking

影响他的企业价值的关键因素是它的财务状况
the key factors that affect its enterprise value are

经销产品的数量和类型
its financial condition, the amount and type of products

它的客户的类型和数量
it sells and the type and quantity of its customers

还有未入账的资产或者负债以及存货
the unrecorded assets or liabilities and inventory

所以对于批发这个行业的
Therefore, for the enterprise value

企业价值来说
of the wholesale industry

我们通过这些关键因素的判断
through the judgment of these key factors

就大概能够决定到底是用
we can roughly decide whether to use

成本法、市场法还是收益法
cost method, market method, income method

或者是其他的方法来评估它的价值
or other methods to evaluate its value

那么还有像第三个零售业
And as the third retail

那么影响零售业企业的价值呢
the key factors that affect the value of retail enterprises

比如说存货, 然后他的这个零售的地点
such as inventory, and then his retail locations

你看星巴克,它的选址一般都在
you can see that the starbucks it's location is generally

CBD就是商业繁华地带的
in the center of CBD which is the

这个中心位置
flourishing commercial zone of the location

所以南来北往的人群非常的客流量很大
so traffic is very big with very crowd people

而且每一客单的这个价值也很高
and every guest list of this value is high

这就是地点带给星巴克这样一个零售业的高额的回报
this is such a place to starbucks retail high returns

那沃尔玛就不一样了, 对吧?
Walmart is different, right?

你看在美国和中国的沃尔玛的
You can see that the wal-mart's location

选址也非常不一样
in the United States and China is very different

在美国,沃尔玛通常选址
wal-mart in the United States are usually located in

在城市的郊区 ,要有大片的停车场
the outskirts of the city, for a large parking lot,

方便家庭周末一家人开着车去购物
convenient family drove to go shopping on weekend

但是在中国呢,沃尔玛一般都选择
but in China, wal-mart is generally choose

在城市的市中心
in the downtown of the city

跟星巴克差不多的CBD的位置, 对吧?
just like starbucks CBD location, right?

因为中国人有这样的一个购物
Because the Chinese have such a shopping

或者是消费的倾向
or consumption tendency

喜欢到热闹的市中心去购物
like to go to lively downtown shopping

那你看到在中国台湾 、中国香港或者是
So you see in Taiwan or Hong Kong

像日本这样的一些地方
or some places like Japan

基本上这个沃尔玛基本上没有市场
basically the wal-mart has no market

为什么呢？
why？

这可能要去进一步的了解这些地方的
It may have to further understand

消费者的心理消费者的行为
psychological behavior of the local consumers

比如说尤其是在中国台湾
such as in Taiwan, China, in particular

如果大家去那里旅游
if you go there to travel

就看到都是就是相当于7-11这种便利店
you can see that convenience store like 7-11

或者是这种社区的小超市比较受欢迎
or small supermarket is more popular in the community

那么大的要占用大量的土地资源
the size of this kind of like wal-mart supermarket

这种像沃尔玛这样的超市,就比较少
taking up a lot of land resources is less

那它的价值决定因素在不同的国家
the determinant of its value in different countries

和地区就会产生很大的差别
and regions will make a big difference

还有就是商店的类型和规模
And the type and size of the store

产品的利润率 、竞争的这个程度等等
The profit rate of the product, the degree of competition

这些都会影响零售企业的
and so on. all affect the judgment

价值的判断
of the value of the retail enterprise

所以
So

不仅要讨论刚刚所说的这些关键因素
not only to talk about these key factors that you just said

可能还要分析的是
may be we should analyze whether the retail enterprise

是在线的零售企业还是线下的零售企业
is the online or offline retail enterprises

也就我们通常讲的
also we often speak of

线上和线下的这个区别
the differences between online and offline

零售行业正在发生的变化
the change that the retail industry is undergoing

是天翻地覆的
is upside down

可以说中国人所感受得到的互联网企业带来的
we can say the retail revolution felt by the Chinese

革命一开始就是从零售业起步的
in the beginning be is started from retail companies

像阿里巴巴、像京东，那么他们完全的改变了
like alibaba like jingdong so they completely changed

传统零售业的市场的规则
the traditional retail market rules

原来我们去苏宁 、国美买电器
Originally we went to suning, gome to buy appliances

去沃尔玛买日常的生活用品
wal-mart to buy daily necessities

然后去百货商场买衣服
and then to buy clothes in the department store

现在所有这些购物行为可能80%以上
Now all these shopping activities may be over 80%

都在线上的平台完成了
completed on the online platform

所以,你可以看到在中国这样的一个互联网时代
So you can see in an Internet era like China

零售业是我们观察企业价值的
retail is the best sample industry

最好的样本行业
for us to look at corporate value

那我也希望你可以选择一两个样本企业
That's also my hope that you can choose one or two sample

运用我们所学习的这些企业价值评估的方法
using the enterprise value evaluation methods we learn

去尝试着做一下企业价值评估的
to try to do some analysis and calculation

一些分析和计算
of the enterprise value evaluation

那也欢迎你把你在这个过程中遇到的一些问题
welcome you to share some of the problems you encountered

你的一些发现和思考
in the process and your findings and thinking

在我们的课程讨论区来跟大家分享
in our discussion forum to share with you of course

最后,我们做一个简要的总结
Finally, we make a brief summary

就是说,所有的评估方法
that is to say, all evaluation methods are limited

就是说,所有的评估方法
in terms of their usage conditions

它的使用条件是有限制的
in terms of their usage conditions

比如说,市场法
Let's say that the market method

也就是我们通常讲的相对估值法
the relative valuation method that we usually use

它有两个很重要的前提条件
has two very important prerequisites

你必须满足这两个条件
and you have to satisfy those two conditions

才能用市场法
to use the market method

第一个前提条件就是,他要有一个有效市场
The first condition is that he has an efficient market

并且能够在这个市场上,找到足够多的可比的案例
and can find enough comparable cases in that market

那么什么叫做有效市场? 什么叫做可比案例?
So what is an efficient market ? What's a comparable case?

我想我们已经在很多的这个课程细节里面
I think we've discussed some of these important concepts

跟大家讨论了这样的一些重要的概念
with you in a lot of detail in this course

第二点就是,以预期现金流折现
The second point is the absolute valuation method

为代表的这个绝对估值法
represented by expected cash flow discounting

它是要求整个估值的过程
which requires the entire valuation process

要对企业的未来收益风险
to make reasonable predictions about

和存续的期间
the future earnings risk and duration of the enterprise

都做出比较合理的预测,而且这样的预测一定要有依据
and such predictions must be based on

那么对于很多互联网企业来说
So for many Internet companies

它可能还处于一个创业阶段,处于成长的阶段
it may still on the stage of a start-up in the growth stage

它的现金流还不是很好看
its cash flow also is not very good

它可能还没有盈利
it may also have no profit

一直在持续地这个投入
have been continuously the input

所以,我们在这样的一个财务报表的情况下
so we in such a case, financial statements

要来做他的未来收益预测就会比较困难
to do his future earnings forecast will be more difficult

所以通常来说,DCF方法是适用于
Therefore, generally speaking, the DCF method is

那些有比较稳定的经营和预期
applicable to those enterprises

财务报表比较健全
with relatively stable operation and expectations

可以有比较靠谱的这个财务信息
sound financial statements and

帮助我们来做出预测的这样的一些企业
reliable financial information to help us make predictions

第三个就是,这个成本法
And the third one is this cost method

在企业价值评估的范畴
in the context of enterprise valuation

有时候我们也称之为资产基础法
which is sometimes called the asset base method

这个方法主要是针对
This method is mainly aimed at the requirement of

国有企业保值增值的这个要求
preserving and increasing the value of state-owned enterprises

对国有上市公司的
For the capital business of state-owned listed companies

并购重组、定向增发等等这些资本业务
such as merger and reorganization, private placement etc

就必须要求用资产基础法来进行估值
the asset base method must be used for valuation

第四点，就是我们讲的这个B-S期权定价法
The fourth one is the b-s option pricing method

主要是针对那些具有期权特征的资产
which is mainly for those assets

或者是企业
or enterprises with option features

所以同学们你不能说，拿到一个什么资产 一个企业
So you can't say what asset you get whatever business

你都用B-S期权定价法
you're using b-s option pricing

这个是不合适的
that's not appropriate

你必须先做出一个分析和判断
you have to make an analysis and a judgment

这个资产这个企业，它到底
does this asset this business have

有没有期权的特征
the characteristics of the option

最后对吧？
And finally right？

对于成本法也好市场法也好
For the cost method for the market method

收益法也好
for the benefit method

我们来判断它的一个基本的原则或者是逻辑
let's judge a basic principle or logic of it

便于我们把所有这些零散的知识点,就是
so that we can integrate all these scattered knowledge points

整合成一套有机的知识体系
into an organic knowledge system

那我在这个课堂上,经常跟我们的学生分享
So I often share this with our students in this class

就说这个成本法来评估企业价值
that the cost method is used to evaluate enterprise

它是一个结构的原则
it's a principle of structure

就是它要把这个企业的价值
which is to break the value of the enterprise

分解为很多不同的部分
into many different parts

然后最后进行加总
and then add them up

市场法评估企业价值
Marketing assessment of enterprise value

它是基于一个比较的原则
it is based on a comparison principle

因为你要在这个充分竞争的市场上
because you want to be in the fully competitive market

去找到足够多的可比对象
to find enough comparable object

然后比较它们之间的差异
and then compare the differences between them

调整他们之间的这个差异之后
adjust the difference between them

用这个比较的替代对象或者是可比案例
after comparing the alternative object or comparable case

或者是可比交易
or a comparable transactions

用他们的市场价格,来近似地
using their market prices to approximate

看待我们这个企业的价值
view of the value of our enterprise

而收益法,它评估企业价值是遵循的
Income method is an expected principle to

一个预期的原则
evaluate enterprise value

预期恰恰是我们金融市场或者资本市场上
Expectation is a very critical factor

非常关键的一个因素
in our financial market or capital market

因为预期会影响投资者的心理
because it affects the psychology of investors

会带来很多主观或者是
and brings changes and fluctuations

客观因素的变化和波动
of many subjective or objective factors

所以我们选择评估方法的时候呢
So when we choose evaluation method

不仅要理解企业价值评估的
not only we should understand the objective assessment

评估目的、价值类型 、评估时的市场条件
of enterprise value evaluation and the market condition

被评估对象的各种限制因素等等
all kinds of limiting factors of evaluated objects and so on

而且要考虑到在运用这些评估方法来评估企业价值的时候
and when we use the evaluation method to value companies

我们需要的那些数据和资料
we need to consider whether the data and information

以及主要的技术经济的参数能否获得，我们整个评估方法
and the parameters of the main technical and economic access

能不能通过这样的一些假设 ，通过这样一些模型
to our entire assessment method can be get through some

这样的一些公式的运用 ，最后比较合理
of these assumptions some models and the use of some of these formulas

比较靠谱的去反映，在特定的时点这个互联网企业的价值
and then reflect the value of Internet companies reasonably

那么还要考虑的就是，在这个企业价值评估的过程中
the other thing to think about in this enterprise

对于一些评估项目的适用性、效率性、安全性
value assessment process is that you have to make choices and judgments

也要作出选择和判断
about the suitability the efficiency the safety of some of the projects

如果条件允许的话 ,我们当然鼓励你
and if the conditions permit, of course, we encourage you

对于同一个企业你把这些方法都用一遍 对吧
to use all of these methods for the same enterprise right

比如说一个像小米这样的一个互联网企业
Such as a an Internet companies like millet

你用市场法
you can use marketing method

成本法、收益法你都估一遍
cost method and income approach to estimate it

然后看看这些方法之间有什么差异
and then see what's the difference between these methods

去分析一下这些不同的方法
to analyze these different approaches

它们产生差异的原因到底在哪 ？
where exactly are the reasons of the differences between them？

最后,按照你的理解去选择其中1到2种
finally ,according to the your understanding

或者是用加权的方法
of the three methods of evaluation

对这三种评估方法的结果
to choose among them 1 to 2 kinds or by the method of weighted

进行一个综合的处理
for a comprehensive treatment

最后确定这个企业的价值
finally determine the value of the enterprise.

所以 ,方法是给我们一个到达目的地的路径
So, the method is to give us a path to our destination

但是 ,首先我们要理解我们的目的到底是什么
But first, we need to understand what our purpose is

给你一杆秤
Give you a scale and

和你一起度量互联网企业的价值空间
measure the value space of Internet enterprises together with you

我们这章的内容就到此结束 ,谢谢!
That's the end of our chapter thank you!