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大家好
Hello everyone

今天我们来接着讨论互联网企业的生命周期
today we will continue to discuss the life cycle of Internet companies

在讨论互联网企业的生命周期之前
Before discussing the life cycle of Internet companies

我们先看一看互联网企业所处产业的周期
let's take a look at the cycle of the industry in which Internet companies are located

我们在分析企业价值的时候
When we analyze the value of an enterprise

通常要去考虑企业所处的产业背景
we usually have to consider the industrial background

或者是产业的阶段
in which the enterprise is located or the stage of the industry

一个产业会怎么样演化？
How will an industry evolve?

全球著名的咨询公司科尔尼的几位专家
Several experts from the world-famous consulting firm Kearney

在对全球几十个国家的
analyzed and counted a large number of mergers and acquisitions cases

大量企业并购案例进行分析统计后得出
in dozens of countries around the world

一个产业的演进通常要经过四个阶段
It is concluded that the evolution of an industry usually goes through four stages

即初创阶段、规模化阶段
named, the initial stage and the scale stage, agglomeration phase

集聚阶段、以及平衡和联盟阶段
and balance and alliance phases

这四个阶段构成了一个产业演进的周期和路径
These four phases constitute the cycle and path of an industrial revolution

大量产业的产业周期大概在20到25年左右
The industrial cycle of a large number of industries is about 20 to 25 years

当然不同的产业演进周期会有差别
Of course, different industry evolution cycles will be different

在产业演进的初创阶段
In the initial stage of industrial evolution

我们往往会看到
we often see that

一开始只有少量的企业进入了这个产业
only a small number of enterprises have entered the industry at the beginning

市场集中度可能非常高
and market concentration may be very high

随着市场的发展
With the development of the market

有大量的企业会进来
a large number of enterprises will come in

导致产业的市场集中度降低
resulting in a decrease in the market concentration of the industry

各个公司都忙于跑马圈地
All companies are busy staking

进一步会降低这个产业集中度
further reducing the concentration of this industry

经过一段时间的发展
After a period of development

产业逐渐演进
the industry has gradually evolved

产业中的各个企业开始追求规模
and various companies in the industry have begun to pursue scale

大家的产品和服务变得相近
Everyone's products and services have become similar

这个时候规模就变得非常重要
At this time, the scale has become very important

通过产业中的企业并购整合之后
After the merger and acquisition of enterprises in the industry

企业进入规模化发展阶段
the company has entered the stage of large-scale development

一个公司通过各种形式的增长
A company that has established market control in the market

在市场上建立市场控制力，就成为压倒一切的事情
through various forms of growth has become the overriding thing

规模扩展到一定程度
The scale will be expanded to a certain extent

企业之间会进一步的并购整合
and further mergers and acquisitions between enterprises

就进入第三阶段集聚阶段
will enter the third stage of agglomeration

行业内主要的企业浮出水面
Major companies in the industry have surfaced

并且建立起自己的竞争壁垒
and established their own barriers to competition

随着这个产业的演进
With the evolution of this industry

到了最后只能有几个少数的企业
only a few companies and market participants

和市场参与者能够在竞争中胜出
can compete in the competition

这几个市场参与者的市场占有率达到一个很高的水平
The market share of these market participants has reached a very high level

大家之间形成了一个平衡的状态
There is a state of balance between the people

这种平衡的状态会使得整个市场进一步稳定
This balanced state will make the whole market more stable

甚至饱和，又会被新的模式或新的产品
and even saturated and will be subverted by new models or new products

新的服务、新的经营模式所颠覆
new services, and new business models

从而进入新一轮的产业演进周期
A round of industrial evolution cycle

这是产业演进模型的四个阶段
This is the four stages of the industrial evolution model

大致描述了一个产业演进的周期
which roughly describes the cycle of an industrial revolution

那么对互联网企业
So for Internet companies

我们也可以观察到
we can also observe

也大致遵守这样的演进规律
and generally abide by this evolutionary law

比如说早期的互联网门户企业，可能有很多
For example, there may be a lot of early Internet portal companies

最后只剩下了新浪、网易和搜狐三家
and only Sina, Netease, and Sohu are left

进一步我们看到打车平台
Further, we saw the taxi platform

早期有很多的打车平台
There were many taxi platforms in the early days

但是我们看到随着竞争和产业的演进
but we saw that with the evolution of competition and industry

很多的打车平台进行了合并整合
many taxi platforms have been merged and integrated

市场集中度大幅的提高
and the market concentration has been greatly improved

还有我们今天看到的网购平台
And the online shopping platform we see today

我们今天看到的各种外卖平台
the various take-away platforms we see today

还有最近两年兴起的新零售
and the new retail that has emerged in the last two years

我们可以看到不同的互联网产业
We can see different Internet industries

他们的演进也大致符合一个S型的产业演进周期
and their evolution is roughly in line with an S-type industry evolution cycle

这个演进模型，能够帮助我们
This evolution model can help us

分析互联网企业所处的不同产业演进阶段
analyze the evolution stages of different Internet companies industries

不同演进阶段
At different stages of evolution

企业所面临的风险是不同的
the risks faced by enterprises are different

特别是在初创阶段和平衡阶段
Especially in the initial stage and the balance stage

面临的风险比较大
the risks are relatively large

在初创阶段
In the initial stage

很多企业在演进的过程中
many companies in the process of evolution its model cannot be verified

企业就消失了
the enterprise disappeared

或者企业被并购了
or the company was acquired

在平衡阶段
In the equilibrium phase

整个产业可能会面临着被新的模式颠覆的这种可能性
the entire industry may face the possibility of being subverted by new models

所以在这两个产业的阶段
Therefore, in the stage of these two industries

企业面临的风险会比较大
the risks faced by enterprises will be relatively large

当然风险不同就会影响对企业价值的判断的高低
Of course, different risks will affect the judgment of the value of the enterprise

在规模化阶段和集聚阶段
In the stage of scale and agglomeration

企业也会面临风险
companies also face risks

当然在这两个阶段
Of course, in these two stages

应当说企业的经营模式相对稳定
it should be said that the business model of the enterprise is relatively stable

那么它面临的风险更多的来自于
so the risk it faces is more from the competition risk

企业之间的同类型同模式的竞争风险
of the same type and mode between enterprises

在评估互联网企业价值的时候
When evaluating the value of an Internet business

我们可以借用这个模型来帮助我们
we can use this model to help us

分析企业所处的阶段和风险
analyze the stage and risks of the business

当然我们会看到大概是在15到25年左右的一个周期
Of course, we will see a cycle of about 15 to 25 years

在互联网产业可能表现的更加激进
which may be more radical in the Internet industry

这个周期可能会大大的压缩
This cycle may be greatly compressed

比方说我们看到的这个打车平台
For example, the taxi platform we saw

可能在引入期大量企业很快进来
may be coming in a large number of enterprises in the introduction period

要不了五年时间，2到3年时间
In five years or even two to three years

可能企业已经开始进行并购整合
the company may have begun mergers and acquisitions

而且由于互联网行业的这种网络效应
And because of this network effect of the Internet industry

使得并购会带来非常大的价值增值
M&A will bring a very large value added

企业之间具有更强的并购重组的动力
The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions between enterprises

使得这个周期大大的压缩
have made this cycle greatly compressed

在分析企业所处产业的演进阶段或演进周期之后
After analyzing the evolution stage or evolution cycle of the industry

我们可以看到在不同产业演进阶段
we can see that in different stages of industrial evolution

可能都会有新企业进入
new enterprises may enter

在不同演进阶段的企业
and enterprises in different evolution stages

又呈现出不同的生命周期特征
present different life cycle characteristics

企业的生命周期，也可以大致分为四个阶段
The life cycle of an enterprise can also be roughly divided into four phases

从启动期到成长期到成熟期到衰退期
that are start-up period, growth period, maturity period and recession period

伴随的是企业的用户数量和企业的营收的变化
it is accompanied by changes in the number of users and the revenue

那么对互联网企业而言
So for the Internet company

与传统的企业相比
compared with the traditional enterprise

它在生命周期上可能也表现出一些他自身独有的特点
it may also show some unique characteristics in its life cycle

例如在启动阶段
For example, in the startup phase

因为互联网企业
because of the Internet business

它的一些经营模式是在不断的去迭代和验证
some of its business models are constantly iterating and verifying

在这一阶段
At this stage

企业的分化加剧
the differentiation of enterprises has intensified

很多企业的经营模式得不到验证之后
and many companies' business models have not been verified

迅速的衰退，或者企业迅速的退出市场
they have quickly declined, or companies have quickly withdrawn from the market

第二个就是，互联网企业在生命周期的过程中
The second is that the life cycle of Internet companies

它的寿命周期更替在加速
is accelerating during the life cycle

这就是我们前面讲到的
This is what we mentioned earlier

它的产业演进周期在压缩
Its industrial evolution cycle is compressing

企业的寿命周期也在压缩
and the life cycle of enterprises is also compressing

更替也更加迅速
and changing more rapidly

第三个，就是我们从右边这个图可以看出
The third one is that we can see from the graph on the right

在成长阶段
that during the growth phase

互联网企业成长阶段的时间在压缩
the time for the growth of Internet companies is shrinking

它的成长阶段的用户和营收的增长更陡峭
the growth of users and revenues during its growth phase is steeper

而在成熟阶段可能时间会拉长
At the maturity stage, the time may be lengthened

这也跟互联网的企业的一些互联网特征有很大关系
which is also related to some Internet characteristics of Internet companies

我们通常会讲到互联网企业
We usually talk about Internet companies

它的用户数量在达到一个临界值之后
After reaching a critical value

会使得它的用户的吸引力大幅上升
the number of users will increase the attractiveness of its users

用户的增长速度会加速
and the growth rate of users will accelerate

因为它有网络效应
Because it has a network effect

一旦它吸引了足够数量的用户之后
once it attracts a sufficient number of users

进入成熟阶段，经营模式稳定之后
it enters the mature stage, and after the business model is stable

用户的黏性比较强
the user's stickiness is relatively strong

那么用户的稳定性就比较强
then the user's stability is stronger

它能够持续更久的时间
and it can last longer

所以在成熟阶段时间会拉长
so It will take longer during the maturity phase

当然是不是所有的互联网企业都有这种特征呢？
Of course, are all Internet companies having this feature?

这要具体分析
This needs to be analyzed in detail

但是我们可以大致看到
But we can roughly see that

互联网企业因为它的业务所依赖的这种网络特性
because of the network characteristics

使得它的寿命周期可能呈现出与传统企业不同的特点
Internet companies may have different life cycles than traditional enterprises

因此我们在评估互联网企业价值的时候
when we evaluate the value of Internet enterprises

要根据互联网企业所处的不同阶段
we must find out the difference between their income and risk

来发现它的收益和风险的不同
according to the different stages of Internet companies

选用不同的评估方法
and choose different evaluation methods

我们刚才讲到
As we mentioned

在生命周期的早期阶段
in the early stages of the life cycle

互联网企业往往分化加剧
Internet companies tend to intensify

最近上海交通大学的产业创业指数课题组
Recently, the Industrial Entrepreneurship Index of Shanghai Jiao Tong University

提出了一个初创企业的生命演化模型
proposed a life evolution model of a start-up enterprise

从这个模型我们可以看到
From this model, we can clearly see that

明显的体现出互联网企业在它在初创阶段
the Internet company has experienced a certain profit in the initial stage

或者它已经取得了一定收益度过了早期的阶段之后
or it has achieved a certain profit, after the early stages

仍然呈现非常大的分化
there is still a very large differentiation

有一类企业商业模式得到验证，会加速腾飞
A type of business model has been proven to accelerate the take-off

另外一些企业可能陷入到瓶颈
Other companies may fall into the bottleneck

很难再有增长
and it is difficult to grow

还有大量的企业可能就面临死亡
There are still a large number of companies that may face death

退出市场
and exit the market

因此我们在评估互联网企业价值的时候
Therefore, when we evaluate the value of the Internet enterprise

当它处于初创阶段或者企业的这个产业初创阶段
if the company was in the initial stage or the industry was in the initial stage

或者是企业的启动与成长阶段时
or the enterprise was the start-up and growth stage

我们要注意到分化加剧的这种趋势
we should pay attention to this trend of intensification of differentiation

这种趋势使得我们要去关注企业所面临的风险
This trend makes us pay attention to the risks faced by companies

如果不注意这种分化
If you do not pay attention to this differentiation

就很可能导致我们对企业价值的过高判断
it is likely to lead to excessive judgment on the value of the company

这是我们讲的互联网企业它所处的产业演进周期
This is the difference between the industry evolution cycle

和企业寿命周期的差异
and the enterprise life cycle of the Internet company we are talking about

会带来企业所面临的收益和风险的不同
It will bring about the difference in the benefits and risks faced by the enterprise

从而影响我们对企业的判断
which will affect our judgment on the enterprise

以及对评估方法的选择
and the choice of evaluation methods

好，关于互联网企业生命周期的讨论
OK, that's all I want to discuss today

我们就到这里
Welcome to the next session