1.1.1 Statistics application: everywhere 统计应用：无处不在在线视频

大妞 二妞 在干啥呢
My daughters, what are you doing?

新闻里要报道重要经济新闻了
There is an important economic report coming up in the news.

快来和爸爸一起关心关心国家大事吧
Come and watch the news with me.

2015年
In 2015

中国国内生产总值676,708亿元
China's GDP is 67.6708 trillion yuan

同比增长6.9%
Up 6.9% year on year

虽然增速有所放缓
Although the growth rate has slowed down

但在全球主要经济体中
But in the world 's major economies

仍是名列前茅
Still at the top

对世界经济增长的贡献
Contribution to world economic growth

保持在25%以上
Remained above 25%

收入增
Increased revenue

全年全国居民
National residents throughout the year

人均可支配收入21,966元
Per capita disposable income of 21,966 yuan

实际增长7.4%
Growth 7.4% in fact

农民工月均工资突破3000元
The average monthly wage of migrant workers exceeded 3,000 yuan

有进有退
There are advances and retreats

有加也有减
Add and subtract

投资增速减
Decrease in investment growth

2015年固定资产投资
Fixed assets investment in 2015

实际增长12%
12% real growth

增速比上年回落2.9个百分点
The growth rate is 2.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous year

房屋新开工面积下降14%
Newly constructed housing area fell by 14%

靠高强度投资拉动经济的
Rely on high-intensity investment to drive the economy

增长方式开始转换
Growth mode begins to switch

能耗减
Energy consumption reduction

2015年单位GDP能耗下降5.6%
Energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 5.6% in 2015

经济生产更加绿色
Economic production is greener

环境质量改善
Environmental quality improvement

更加值得期待
More worth looking forward to

国内生产总值
Gross Domestic Product

固定资产投资 单位GDP能耗
Fixed-asset investment, Unit GDP energy consumption

这些都是啥呀
What do these terms mean?

统计指标啊
These are all statistical indicators.

2015年高技术产业
High-tech industry in 2015

同比增长10.2%
Up 10.2% year on year

遥遥领先工业平均增速
Far ahead of the industry average growth rate

4.1个百分点
4.1 percentage points

除了新技术 新产业
In addition to new technologies and new industries

新业态 新模式也蓬勃发展
New formats and new models are also booming

拿电子商务行业来说
Take the e-commerce industry

去年增长31.6%
Last year increased by 31.6%

远远超过社会消费品零售总额的
Far more than the total retail sales of consumer goods

10.7%的增长速度
10.7% growth rate

快递业
Express industry

全年包裹投递量超过200亿个
Annual package delivery volume Over 20 billion

哎 你看 你看
Here, look,

快递业全年包裹投递超过两百亿个
The total number of packages delivered in a year surpassed 20 billion.

一个人平均快20个了
That is, almost 20 per capita,

咱家四口人得80个了
and 80 for the four of us in this family.

姐 你去年多少快递啊
Sister, how many deliveries did you send and receive last year?

谁记这个呀 记不清了
Who keeps a record of this? I can’t remember.

得查淘宝 京东 亚马逊才知道啊
I have to view my shopping history on Taobao, Jingdong and Amazon.

那新闻上是谁记的
So the number in the news, who keeps track of that?

统计出来的呀
Statistics counts the number.

怎么统计的啊
How?

先一件一件记下来
First, take note of each delivery

最后再把它们全部加起来
and then add all the numbers together.

哦 统计就是记数的啊
So statistics is just about counting.

我可没说统计就是记数
I never said statistics was just about counting.

统计的作用大着呢
Statistics is a very useful science.

那还可以帮我们干啥
What else can it help us do?

哎呀 我一时半会和你说不清楚
Well, it is hard to explain in a few words.

反正作用大着呢
It plays an important role in many ways.

姐 你就说说嘛
Please, sister, tell me more about it.

诶 没想到你对统计还挺感兴趣的呢
I didn’t know you are so interested in statistics.

正好 最近同学向我推荐了一门慕课
A classmate recommended me this Mooc recently,

江西财经大学的轻松学统计
Called Easy Way to Learn Statistics presented by Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics.

一起看看吧
Let’s watch it together.

统计学这门课呢
Before starting the course of Statistics,

像其它课一样
like in any other courses,

在前言里面我们把这门学科
we will give a general introduction about

要解决的问题去对一下
the common issues in this course,

这门学科的产生历史
the history,

这门学科的研究方法
the research techniques,

这门学科的基本概念
and the basic concepts.

要讲完 要讲清楚
We need to clarify all these in this part.

在这里呢
Here

今天我们在绪论
in today’s introduction,

在前言里面也讲几个问题
or the preface, to this lecture, we are going to cover the following aspects.

第一 我们先讲统计
First, we will explicate the concept.

什么是统计
What is statistics?

统计 先讲统计的含义
First of all, we need to know the definition.

统计一般指的是
Statistics generally refers to

统计工作 统计资料 统计学
statistical work, statistical data, and the statistics

也就是统计科学
namely, the statistical science.

这三个含义
Among these three terms,

统计工作和统计资料呢
statistical work and statistical data

大家可能听的比较多的
may be more often heard

就是省统计局
as provincial statistics bureau

国家统计局等等政府统计
National bureau of statistics and other government statistics

和民间的一些咨询机构
and private consulting agencies

所从事的那些工作
and their businesses.

统计工作是搜集数据 整理数据
Statistical work (a generic term of series of work) includes

并且分析数据（等组成的系列工作的总称）
data collection, data organization and data analysis.

这些就属于统计工作
All of them can be categorized as statistical work.

所得到的那些资料就是统计资料
And the data obtained during the process is called statistical data.

大家看到的这些统计年鉴
Statistics Yearbook as we often see

就属于统计资料的一种
is one type of statistical data.

统计学 是后来发展的
Statistics is evolved thereafter.

它是一门科学
It is a science.

后面我们等下会讲到它的发展史
We will talk about its development shortly.

至于什么叫统计（学）
What is statistics?

比如说
Well, take

其它学科里面
other subjects for instance,

什么叫会计（学）
accounting,

什么叫财政（学）
finance,

它们都有一个定义
they have their own definitions.

统计学其实是没有定义的
But there is no definition for statistics,

因为各人有各人的理解
and we all have different understandings about it.

有的人理解统计学是温度计
Some say statistics is a thermometer,

有的人理解统计学是中庸
while some see it as the doctrine of mean.

这就要看你怎么理解
It depends on how you relate to it.

它的用途非常广
It has tremendously wide applications.

只要有人类活动的地方就一定有统计
Where there is human activity, there is statistics.

也就是说能产生数据的地方就有统计
In other words, statistics is employed where data is generated.

如果一定要给统计学下个定义的话
If asked to define statistics,

它就是一个（研究如何进行）
it is a science (studying how to)

数据搜集 整理 分析的一门学科
collect, sort and analyze data.

它通过对现象（所）研究（的）事物
By collecting, organizing and analyzing data

或者我们所发现的问题
from phenomena, things

他的数据进行搜集 整理 分析
and questions that we have encountered

（来）发现它内部的发展规律
to uncover its inherent laws,

并进行预测的一门学科
and to predict its future development.

统计学 它的作用非常广
Statistics has a wide range of applications.

就像刚才讲的统计学
For example, as discussed above,

只要有数据的地方
as long as data is concerned,

就离不开统计
statistics is required.

那人类活动 不管是家庭的生活
In human activities, whether in household lives,

还是工作中的生产等等
or industrial production,

都离不开
statistics is an indispensable part,

因为都要产生数据
because data is generated.

所以统计学在各个方面
Therefore, statistics, in many ways,

都有一定的活动 都有一定的贡献
has played its role and made contributions.

有一本书就是《如何改变21世纪——统计》
In the book entitled How it Changed 21st Century——Statistics

比如说
for instance,

你们可能听过的一些统计
the author mentioned some statistical terms you might have come across,

就有经济统计 管理统计
such as economic statistics, management statistics

生物统计 物理统计
biostatistics, physical statistics

医学统计 气象统计
medical statistics, meteorological statistics

心理统计 教育统计等等
psychological statistics, education statistics, and so on.

那就是统计在各个方面的应用
These are the applications of statistics in various fields.

我们在这里呢
And now, we are going to

讲一讲在经济学中
focus on its use in economics.

经济学里面的经济现象
There is a diversity of

是非常复杂的一个现象
complicated economic phenomena in economics.

它也是一个完整的系统
It is also a complete system

从生产 分配 到使用
covering production, distribution and consumption,

从国内到国外的进出口
ranging from domestic to foreign import and export,

从货币的投入到货币的乘数
from monetary investment to monetary multiplier

变动 到物价的体现
currency movements, and to its representation on commodity prices,

是否（出现）通（货膨）胀 或者（通货）紧缩
and whether there is inflation or deflation,

从人们的参加劳动到
from our participation in work

劳动力的人数 就业情况 失业状况等等
to the number of laborers, employment, and unemployment status.

如果没有统计的分析
Without statistical analysis

和统计拎（计算）出来的一些指标
or the indicators proceeded from statistical computing (calculating),

那整个国民经济的运行状态是不清楚（的）
the whole running status of the national economy would be unguided.

所以说
Therefore,

从事经济管理工作的人
if a person engaged in economic management

不懂统计就像人家讲的
did not understand statistics, it would be like

就像研究英国文学的人不懂英语一样
a researcher of British literature did not understand English.

它是一个必备的工具和基本的技能
It is a necessary tool and a basic skill.

比如《静静的顿河》里面
Take And Quiet Flows the Don as an example,

它用统计来判断
statistics is used to determine

谁是《静静的顿河》的作者
the real author of And Quiet Flows the Don.

像《红楼梦》的作者
And it is also applied to A Dream of Red Mansions

是曹雪芹 还是曹雪芹加高鹗等人
to analyze whether the author is Cao Xueqin or Cao Xueqin and Gao E.

这些都是统计的一帮研究人员
Both are cases when a bunch of statistics researchers

用统计的聚类分析方法来进行分析研究
use cluster analysis for analytical research

来判断有关情况
to clarify certain situations

作者到底是谁
regarding the real author of the book.

还有 曾经在日本历史上有过一段时期
Besides, there is a period in Japanese history,

也就二三十年 出现一个画家
when a painter, in about two or three decades,

他的画非常有名
gained huge fame and popularity.

但他也就出现了这么一段时期
But, no trace of him

前面和后面都没有出现过
could be gathered from anywhere else except for this period.

所以有人怀疑这个人是不是
So people wondered if he

用了另外一种名字来进行绘画
had adopted another name in artistic creation.

但是通过统计分析发现
But statistical analysis discovered that

这个人确实从画风
the painter was truly unique in

从他想表现的题材等等方面
painting style and subject matters

他都很独特
mirrored in his works.

跟别的地方根本不相同
His works were different from other artistic works

他就是一个独立的人
which proved that he was an independent individual

也就是存在了这一段时间
and existed in such a certain period of time.

所以统计的运用
So the applications of statistics,

不管是经济 管理 政治
in economics, management, politics,

文化 教育 心理
culture, education, psychology

它各个方面
and many other fields,

都会使用到统计来认识社会
are all beneficial for us to learn about our society

来认识事物的本质
and the truth behind.

这是统计的作用
This is how statistics work.

世界名著《静静的顿河》的作者究竟是谁
There was a debate about who actually wrote the world-famous book And Quiet Flows the Don.

一般都认为此书的作者是
Today the world has agreed that the author

1965年的诺贝尔文学奖获得者肖洛霍夫
is Sholokhov, a Nobel Literature Prize winner in 1965.

但在20年代末
But in the late 1920s,

当小说第一 二部问世时
when the first two parts of the novel were published,

却有人提出它是肖洛霍夫抄袭的一部书
Sholokhov was accused of plagiarizing

那本书也叫《静静的顿河》
a book with the same title.

1930年 肖洛霍夫曾在一封信中承认
In 1930, Sholokhov admitted in a letter

他知道那本书
that he knew the other book.

不过那是一本关于
But it was a book of

1917年顿河流域的旅行札记
travel notes along the Don river in 1917,

并非是一部长篇小说
rather than a full-length novel.

1974年 流亡国外的索尔仁尼琴
In 1974, Solzhenitsyn in exile

在巴黎出版了题为《顿河急流》
published The Torrent of the Don River in Paris

副标题为《一部长篇小说之谜》的文章
with the subtitle called Mystery of a Long Novel.

再次提出《静静的顿河》
He reiterated that And Quiet Flows the Don.

是肖洛霍夫剽窃的作品
by Sholokhov is a work of plagiarism.

其中真正有艺术价值的部分
The part in the novel with real artistic value

则是从一个名叫克留柯夫那里抄袭来的
was copied from the work of a man named F. Kryukov.

而那些空洞的政治宣传
And Sholokhov added nothing but

才是肖洛霍夫自己写的
some empty political propaganda.

克其萨教授与他的挪威 瑞典同事
A statistics professor, together with his colleagues from Norway and Sweden,

使用乌普沙拉大学的一台
with the help of an IBM370/155 computer

IBM370/155电子计算机
at Uppsala University,

对《静静的顿河》的文章风格
conducted a statistical analysis on

与其他一些特点
the writing style

与克留柯夫的公认作品进行了统计分析
and other characteristics of the novel and F. Kryukov’s writings.

研究表明
Their study revealed that

所有参数都存在一致的趋势
all the parameters presented a consistent trend,

即克留柯夫的作品与《静静的顿河》之间
showing there were significant statistical differences

存在着显著的统计差异
between F. Kryukov’s writings and And Quiet Flows the Don.

由此可见
Thus,

这部杰作的真正作者很难说是克留柯夫
there was no adequate support that F. Kryukov was the real author of the masterpiece.

相比之下
Instead,

肖洛霍夫更像是《静静的顿河》的原作者
it rather proved Sholokhov was the original writer of And Quiet Flows the Don.

数理统计
Mathematical statistics

使文坛上这宗多年悬而未决的案件
provided more solid evidence to resolve the pending case

进一步明了
that had puzzled the literary world for many years.

笔墨官司打到这个地步
Controversy over the real author of the novel

看来对肖洛霍夫是有利的
ended in favor of Sholokhov.

1991年已经发现了肖式写作时的手稿
In 1991, the manuscript of Sholokhov was found.

经研究确实是肖式手笔
Later researches also confirmed Sholokhov’s handwriting.