2.2.1 Scheme design: a prelude to statistical survey 方案设计：统计调查的前奏在线视频

第二讲 主要讲的就是调查方案的设计
Part 2 will focus on scheme design of statistic survey

调查方案的设计
scheme design of statistic survey

里面牵涉到许多内容
covers a lot of ground

为什么我们要讲这么一个内容
What can we learn from today’s lecture

因为统计调查涉及的面非常广
Statistic Survey involves a wide range

花费的人力 物力 财力非常多
costing manpower, material and financial resources

我们不能说
We should avoid

因为准备不足
failing a survey

而使得某一次调查失败
because of inadequate preparation

那造成的损失是非常大的 没法弥补
The loss caused by the failure will be too large to make up for

那么
Therefore

在统计调查方案设计里面
we should get to know what is to be included

包括哪些内容呢
in the scheme design of statistic survey

大家从这些方面来考虑问题就好办
We should address this problem from the following aspects

第一
First,

我们要知道
we need to know

你这次调查的调查目的是什么
the purpose of this survey

在我们统计里面（讲） 就是确定调查目的
In statistic, to define the objective of a survey

就是为什么调查
is to figure out why we conduct this survey

你只有搞清楚
Only by figuring out

我这里的调查目的
the objective of survey

比如
for instance

人口普查是要了解国情国力的基本情况
the population census is to grasp the national power and strength

了解我们的总体人口 这些情况
and the situation of the general population

所以
Consequently

了解了调查目的
to understand the purpose of the survey

才知道向谁调查 调查什么
helps to clarify whom and what should be surveyed

怎么调查 什么时候调查
when and how to launch the survey

所以第一个
In conclusion,

调查方案里面最首要的问题
The top priority in survey design

是确定 明确调查目的
is to determine and clarify the purpose of the survey

第二个 向谁调查
Secondly, whom should be investigated

也就是我们讲的确定调查对象
or to determine respondents

和调查单位
and units of survey

调查对象 它是一个总体
The respondents form a population

就是我们上一章讲的统计总体
which we have discussed in our last chapter

它由总体单位构成
The population is made of units

那些单位就是我们要调查的单位
and these units are what we should investigate

那调查单位是什么呢
What are investigation units

就是我们想搜集的信息
They are information we want to collect

或者项目的承担者
or the undertakers of the project

比如人口普查
In population census

人口普查的调查总体是
the population of the survey

中华人民共和国的所有的
is all the permanent residents

具有国籍的常住人口
with Chinese nationality

它的调查单位是每一个
Its survey unit is each individual

中华人民共和国的国民（公民）
person (citizen) of PRC

当然 指的是常住人口
Of course, it refers to the permanent residents

调查单位它负担 承担着调查项目
The survey unit undertakes and assumes the survey items

这些调查项目
The survey items include

既包括我们前面讲的品质标志
not only the qualitative character

也包括我们前面讲的数量标志
but also the numerical indication as discussed earlier

也就是所有的变量
namely, the variables

第三个 调查什么
Thirdly, what should we investigate

就是我们确定调查内容和调查表
This is when we determine the survey content and the questionnaire

调查内容也就是调查项目
Survey content means survey items

一般来讲 大家都这么认为
Most people agree that

我进行一次调查
in an investigation

我希望我调查内容
the more is included into the survey content

越丰富越好
the better

实际情况可不是这样
But this is not necessarily true

因为你要求 想要许多信息
If you want to collect much information

但是你要调查单位配合
you need to the survey units’ cooperation

或者调查单位理解
or to ask for their understanding

比如说 我们国家
For example, in the second

在第二次人口普查的时候
national population census

曾经想调查文化程度
the item of education was almost included

那时候
But then

我们国家经济文化水平
the national economic and cultural development

没有达到那个程度
was less than satisfactory

所以取消了这个调查项目
At last the item was cancelled

第二 你还要了解 我们那些
Moreover, you should understand

当时的国民的文化水平到底有多高
the culture and education level of the people at that time

理解能力到底有多强
or their ability to comprehend

不然的话
Or else

你设置的调查项目
the survey items and survey content

调查内容也无法满足 搜集到
that you set may not be fulfilled or collected

第三
Third

有些隐私性问题
when there are privacy issues

你也不能够想调查就调查的到
it is not easy to collect the information

要采用一些特殊的调查方法
Special investigation methods should be adopted

来进行调查
in that case

比如说
For example, questions like

你多长时间洗床单 多长时间洗头
how often you wash your bed sheet, or wash your hair

这关系到个人的隐私
are seen invading personal privacy

大家都不会 都不愿意告诉别人
People are often reluctant to share this information

那这样的话
In that case

我们在（选择）调查方法的时候
when we (choose) investigation methods

使用的时候
or use these methods

就要设计一些
we should design some

相关的 模糊的 混淆的一些问题
relevant, confusing and not that specific questions

来得到真实的有关情况
to infer the real-life situation

特别是 黄 赌 毒此类的调查
Especially in surveys regarding pornography, gambling, and drug abuse

更是要采用一些比较好的方法
we should devise better ways

比如 我举一个例子
For example

比如说 家里面没有买电视
suppose there is no TV in a household

为什么没买电视
Why don’t they buy a TV set

有两种可能
There are two possible reasons

一种可能是因为家里没钱
One is that they cannot afford it

（第）二种可能是因为怕影响小孩的学习
the other is that they do not want the TV to affect the child’s learning

当然 现在电视普及了
Of course, TV has become popular

你（可以）把它改成是计算机
You (can) replace TV with computer

那这样的话呢
So

你调查的时候
when you conduct the survey

你如果直接问
if you ask directly

你家里为什么不买电脑
why don’t you buy a computer

那家长可能说 我怕影响小孩学习
the respondent might say, I do not want it to affect my child’s learning

那这样调查就没有用了
and the survey may lose some authenticity

那怎么办呢
So, what do we do

我们就要设一个漏洞
We need to design a loophole

分析调查方法
using statistical method of analysis

电脑对小孩的学习有利 有弊
Computer poses both negative and positive influence on children’s learning

利 比如说 开拓小孩的视野
The positive influence is, say, to expand children’s horizon

能增加他的那个知识面等等
and increase their knowledge

弊 在于会分散他的学习时间等等
The negative influence is that it would distract children from their learning

问家长 你赞同电脑对小孩的学习
And the question in the survey can be: whether you agree that

是利大于弊还是弊大于利
computer’s positive influence outweighs its negative influence

如果他觉得 利大于弊
If he agrees

那接着问 那为什么我们家不买呢
then continue to ask, why don’t you buy a computer

没买呢
In this case

那只有另外一个回答
the absence of computer only shows

家里暂时没钱
they cannot afford it

所以说
Therefore

调查内容设置的时候
it is highly important to pay attention to

一定要注意
survey content

要根据它的调查方法
by considering investigation method

和调查人员的素质 培训情况
the quality and training of investigators

调查方案的第三个问题
And now it comes to

里面的第二个小问题就是调查表
preparing the questionnaire

你（的）调查资料要在调查表上体现
The questionnaire should represent your survey data

那调查表有两类
There are two kinds of questionnaires

一类叫单一表 一类叫一览表
single table and checklist

单一表和一览表的区分就是
The difference between single table and checklist is

调查单位的多少
the number of investigation units

一份表填一个调查单位叫作单一表
A table with one investigation unit is called single table

我们学校里的学生情况登记表
student registration form in our university, for instance

你个人的家庭 社会等等信息
Your family and social information

这就登记在一张表上
are recorded in one table

那这张表就属于单一表
which is called single table

一览表是一份表里面
A checklist is a table

填多个调查单位
with various investigation units

比如说 人口普查表
for example, population census

它一份表里按家庭
is conducted according to households

一个家庭里面有多个调查单位
There are many investigation units in one household

一个家庭成员都在里头
Everyone in this family is included

这是调查方案里面的第三个
This is the third element in survey design

调查内容和调查表
the survey content and the questionnaire

第四个 什么时候调查
Fourth, when to conduct the survey

就确定调查时间
It means to determine survey time

调查时间分两类
There are two types of survey time

一类是我们讲的
One is what we call

调查工作的起止时间
starting and ending times of the survey

也就是
In other words

什么时候开始调查
when to start the survey

什么时候结束调查
when to end the survey

中间时间多长
and how long is the duration in between

第二个调查时间指的是
The second type of survey time

调查资料所属的时间
means the time when survey data is collected

比如说 人口普查
For example, in population census

人口普查规定的标准时点
it means the standard time point stated by population census

标准时点
The standard time point

比如在11月1号零时
For example, 00:00 a.m. on November 1st

属于标准时点
is a standard time point

那指的就是
It includes

这个人在11月1号零时
all the individuals who are alive

他还活着的人
at 00:00 a.m. on November 1st

这是资料所属的时间
This is the time when data is collected

那11月1号零时之前
If before 00:00 a.m., November 1st

进行的统计调查的登记
a person might have been registered in Statistic Survey

但是 他没有坚持到11月1号零时
but he could not make it to 00:00 a.m. November 1st

这时候 这个人要剔除
then, we must delete that person

如果11月1号以后出生的人
Or anyone who is born after November 1st

他没赶上
does not meet the standard

也不能加进去
and should not be added

所以 这就叫调查资料所属时间
This is the time in which survey data is collected

统计调查方案的最后一个工作
The last job of statistical investigation plan

那就是组织方式的实施
is to implement its organization

什么叫组织方式的实施
What is to implement its organization

因为一项大型的统计调查
Because many large-scale Statistic Survey

它牵涉的人 财 物特别多
involve a wide range of human, physical

量特别大
and monetary resources

那这样的话 首先要
In that case, we should first

组成一个调查领导机构
organize a leading institute for the survey

比如说 我们国家
For example, every time

每次进行的国家大型调查
The national scale investigation is conducted

都由国务院总理或者副总理
Premier or Vice Premier of the State Council

牵头当调查组长
will serve head of survey director

省里面由省长或者副省长
Provincial investigation is also directed by

当调查组长
governor and deputy governor of the province

第二呢
Secondly

（对）调查经费的来源进行预算
budge for the source of survey funds

第三 调查人员的培训
Thirdly, the training of investigators

第四 调查工作的宣传
Fourthly, survey promotion

第五 调查资料的整理 储存 运输
Fifthly, the sorting, storing, transporting

处理 发布等等
arranging, and publishing of survey data

这就是我们第五个
This is the fifth and also the last job of statistical survey design

确定调查组织实施的方式
to organize the implementation of the survey

前面讲了 调查方案的内容
We’ve learned how to design a survey in this lecture

调查方案按照这些内容进行设计
To design a survey based on these elements

就能够进行具体调查
will help us to carry out a specific investigation

那大妞二妞她也了解
The two girls already know

她妈妈 堵车那条线路的有关情况
there is traffic jam on their mother’s way home

她就应该按照这个来进行设计
They should design a detailed questionnaire

她的具体问卷
based on these elements

她要进行实地考察 实地观察
They need to carry out on-the-spot investigation and observation

比如 我曾经看过一篇论文
I once read a thesis

一个本科生写的
written by an undergraduate student

他就是利用40多天
who spent 40 days

在中国人民大学西门
conducting an on-the-spot investigation

对那个红绿灯进行实地调查
on the traffic lights at the west gate of RUC

写出了（对）北京市交通的
In his thesis, he made some proposals

一些建议的情况 一篇文章
on the traffic (situation) in Beijing

写得非常好
The thesis is well written

大妞二妞可以采取这种方法
The two girls can also adopt this method

来进行调查
in their investigation

并且分析这里边的堵车的有关情况
and analyze the traffic jam

并且为交警更好的管理提供建议
to raise valid proposals to improve traffic management

这是统计调查（这一章）的第二个问题
This is the second part in (the chapter of) statistic survey

统计（调查）方案的设计
(survey) design in statistic

第三个问题 统计调查会产生误差
In the rest of today’s lecture, we will discuss survey errors

不管哪种调查都会产生误差
Survey errors happen all the time

它误差分两大类
There are two kinds of errors

第一大类 就是我们讲的
One is what we call

可消除误差
eliminable errors

第二大类 是不可消除的误差
The other is irreversible errors

可消除的误差它可以分两类
The eliminable errors can be divided into two types

一类就是登记误差
One is data recording error

登记误差指的是什么呢
What is data recording error

就是我们大家因为工作疲劳
It happens when investigators are too tired

或者是注意力不强
or too distracted

使得我们的真实数据没有登上
to record the real data

写出了错误的资料 错误的信息
and wrote down the wrong data or information

第二个可以消除误差是系统性误差
The other type of eliminable error is systematic error

系统性误差是可能(在)调查的时候
Systematic error may happen (when)

选择的调查方法
there is something wrong with the choice

或者是选择的调查单位有问题
of method or unit in investigation

比如说 比较典型的（例子）
For example, there is a typical (case)

就是美国1936年的总统竞选
of U.S. presidential election in 1963

文学文摘它调查了240万人
where Literary Digest investigated 2.4 million people

就是按照家里的车牌号码
based on plate numbers

和电话号码进行调查
and home phone numbers

得出的结论是
and reached the conclusion that

罗斯福不可能当总统
Roosevelt would lose

而盖洛普只调查了几千人
Meanwhile Gallup Poll investigated only thousands of people

它采取的是随机抽样
using random sampling

就分层随机抽
also called Stratified sampling

得出的结论是罗斯福当总统
and drew the conclusion that Roosevelt would be elected

最终的结果是 盖洛普调查
It ended up that, the result of

民意调查得出的结果准确
Gallup survey, its opinion poll, was accurate

实际情况是罗斯福当了总统
The truth is Roosevelt was elected president

那前面调查了240万人的民意测验
What went wrong in the opinion poll

调查结果怎么就错的呢
covering 2.4 million respondents

这个就出现了系统偏差
There was a systematic error

1936年美国有车有电话的家庭
In 1936, the American family in possession of a car and a phone

都属于富裕的
was the affluent class

他们反对罗斯福的新政
They opposed Roosevelt’s New Deal

所以他们投票不会投罗斯福
and sure, would not vote for him

所以这个呢 就属于系统性误差
There is a systematic error

系统性误差 只要认真 负责
Systematic error can be eliminated

方法正确 是可以消除的
if you are responsible and use the right way

所以前面两类叫作可消除误差
That is why the two types are eliminable errors

第二类不可消除误差
The other kind of error is irreversible

不可消除误差（的） 第一个
The first type of irreversible error

就是抽样误差
is sampling error

（当）你是从总体中
When you draw samples to represent the population

按随机原则抽取的样本来代表总体
based on a random principle

就是你样本与总体的分布
the distribution of samples and the population

非常接近 但是也是有差别的
can be quite close, but there is also a chance of difference

那这个误差是没法消除
This error cannot be eliminated

但是可以控制并加以计算
but can be controlled and calculated

还有一个误差不可以消除
The other error that cannot be eliminated

就是度量衡误差
is measurement error

度量衡误差就是我们去度量
Measurement error happens when

比如重量 长度等等东西
we measure the weight, length and so on

时间 我们度量时间用的是钟
We use clock to measure time

度量长度用的是尺
Use ruler to measure length

度量重量用的是秤
and use scale to measure weight

但是这些度量衡
But these measurements

它是一定存在误差的
have intrinsic error

就最准的 它叫原子钟
Atomic clock is the most accurate

它多少万年也会慢一秒
but it is one second late every 10 thousand years

所以这个误差也是无法消除
This error is irreversible

那在现实生活里面怎么办
What can we do about this in real life

我们一般 比如量身高
We can, for example, when measuring height

那就多量几次 加起来平均
measure it several times and combine the results to get an average number

让接近于 或者叫逼近于真实
which is close to or approximate to reality

好 统计调查的内容
Ok, these are the three parts

就这三个部分
of Statistic Survey

那现在我们就可以反过来知道
Reviewing the case, we know

大妞二妞她（们）把我们
the two girls can use

前面学过的内容进行运用
what we have learned in this chapter

设计出合格的 科学的
to design a valid and scientific questionnaire

但是千万别内容太多的调查表
Beware for too much content

因为内容太多
If they include too much content

调查的单位他是不会填
they may find it difficult to set units of the survey

要填也可能会真实性会下降
or harm the authenticity of the survey

用她们设计的调查表进行调查
The questionnaire they design

所获得的那些原始资料
will collect original data from the survey

有助于（她们）分析她的妈妈所坐的
to help them analyze the traffic jam

回家的那条线路的交通拥挤情况
on their mother’s way home

好 谢谢大家
That is all, thank you.