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1.2.1 History of Statistical Practice: A Long Road 统计实践史:漫漫长路课程教案、知识点、字幕

统计的产生
The Origin of Statistics

统计的产生是依据社会的需要而产生的
Statistics are generated according to the needs of society

它分为两部分
There are two parts of it.

第一部分 它的工作产生
In the first part, its work originates from

在现实生活中
the real life.

因为部落的出现
Along with the birth of tribes,

因为国家的出现
or the emergence of nations

它要进行集体活动的话
there comes community life.

要进行决策
Decisions have to be made

它要做到心中有数
based on a certain amount of data collected.

从古埃及到中国的古代社会
From Ancient Egypt to Ancient Chinese society

都有统计工作
statistics have played its role,

并且留下了详实的统计资料
and have left solid information and data.

大家都知道 古埃及很有名的金字塔
As we all know, pyramids are famous creation of the Egyptians.

它的金字塔建造的时候
When they were built,

它的国家就要进行
the Ancient Egyptians had to count

人口和财产统计
its population and wealth

它才能够计划规划出
in order to make plans about

要征多少民工 要征多少税
the number of labors and the amount of tax

才能把一栋金字塔筑起来
to be requisitioned for the construction work.

中国也一样
The same happened in China.

洪武三年
In the third year of Emperor Hongwu’s reign,

也就是1370年11月
or in November 1370,

明太祖 朱元璋
Emperor Hongwu, the founding emperor of the Ming dynasty,

曾经对全国的人口进行过一次
arranged a massive investigation

声势浩大的点匣对比
on the national population,

也就是人口普查
similar to the current census.

给每户编制户帖
Household was registered in a residence note,

帖上首印钦奉圣旨
including a stamped royal decree,

上面填写户主和家庭成员的基本信息
with general information of the household head and other family members,

还备附注事产 户别等专项内容
in addition to property, household type and other specific entries,

记载这家人的身份和经济来源等相关信息
and documents about their identity, source of income and other information.

譬如注明他是军户 民户抑者是匠户等等
For example, household types included military, civilian and craftsman.

这种户帖被称为历史上最早的户口本
This kind of residence note is the earliest form of Household Register in history.

我们可以对比明太祖的这场人口普查
If we compare the census conducted by the Emperor of Ming

比美国(1790年)和英国(1801年)的国情普查
with the state of census conducted in U.S. (1790) and in Britain (1801),

要早400多年
we would see the former is 400 years earlier than the latter.

英国学者卡尔津曾说过
Culkin, a British scholar, said admiringly

这是世界上最早推行
that it was the earliest proof and role model

全国人口普查明证和榜样
of national census in the world.

但是朱元璋的人口普查还不算是最早的
Actually, there are other earlier records of national census.

其实最早的是在公元前2200年的尧 舜 夏 商时代
The earliest ones found were in 2200 BC, the era of Yao, Shun, Xia and Shang,

我们国家就进行过最原始的人口普查
when the ancient state took a census of the most original form.

据《史记》记载
According to Records of the Grand Historian,

禹平水土 定九州 计民数
Yu harnessed flood, marked nine regions, and counted the population.

说的是大禹曾为治水进行过人口普查
The history has it that Yu conducted census in order to accomplish water management.

当时登记人口为1355万
The registered population was 13.35 million.

到西汉平帝原始五年(公元5年)的时候
In the fifth year of Emperor Ping’s reign of the Western Han dynasty (5 AD)

也进行过一次全国性人口普查
there was another national census.

在《汉书・地理志》上说了
According to the statistics in The Book of Han, Geography

当时全国共有12222062户
there were 12,222,062 registered households,

是59594978个人
namely, 59,594,978 people in the nation.

这些数字精确到了个位
The number is accurate to single digits.

可见他们所下的功夫有多么的足
We could only imagine how much effort was put into this job.

春秋时期 齐国的宰相管仲就曾经说过
During the Spring and Autumn Period, Guan Zhong was the prime minister of Qi Kingdom.

不明于计数而欲举大事
He compared doing great deeds without grasping a certain number of specific data

犹无舟楫而经于水 险也
with wading into the water without boat and oar, which was extremely risky.

他不仅推行 春曰书比 夏曰日程
He not only implemented a seasonal statistics work,

秋曰大稽 与民数得亡的常态统计
regarding tax rate, revenue and the number of people on the market,

还注意调查人口的素质
but also investigated the quality constitution of the population,

譬如每个农民能提供多少人的口粮
such as the ration a farmer could provide,

有专门技能的男人和女人有多少
the number of men and women with specialized skills,

鳏夫 寡妇 病人有多少等等
the number of widows, widowers and patients etc.

秦国宰相商鞅
When Shang Yang served as prime minister of Qin Kingdom,

也下令将全国的总人口按壮男
he also ordered to categorize the total population

壮女 官吏 商人 读书人
into 13 types including men, women, officials, businessmen, scholars

残疾人等十三类分别统计
the handicapped, etc.

这就是历史上著名的强国知十三数
His classification boosted Qin’s prosperity that it later became a famous criterion

到了汉朝 隋朝 唐朝 元朝 明朝到清朝
that was maintained in the following dynasties of Han, Sui, Tang, Yuan, Ming and Qing.

我们国家的统计资料 统计数据
The statistical data, statistical information, in our country,

都有完整的保存
has been well conserved.

(有)一种观点认为
One view holds that

中国元朝和隋朝
the statistic data

那两个朝代的统计数据
collected by Yuan and Sui dynasties

比较完整 也比较真实
is more complete and more authentic.

使得后两个朝代
The following two dynasties,

唐朝和明朝
Tang and Ming dynasties

在中国才非常强大
benefited from this and rose to power quickly.

这个强大的基础之一
Its strength can be partly attributed to

跟前朝留下的
the detailed and complete statistical data

详实完整的统计数据不无相关
inherited from the proceeding dynasties.

统计在现实生活中的作用
Statistics have an extensive application in life.

到现在大家看得到的
The most familiar cases

除掉国家统计局
range from the monthly published CPI

每个月发布的CPI
by National Bureau of Statistics

这是现实中的统计
which is a practical use of statistics,

以及每个年末发布的GDP数据
to the GDP released at the end of each year,

还要到来年的政府工作报告里面
And to the statistical data, social bulletin

有一些统计数据和社会公报
and social economic development bulletin data

我们的社会经济发展公报的数据
in government work report of the following year.

这些都是现实生活工作中的
These display the role of statistics and statistical information

统计工作和统计资料的展现
in real life and concrete work.

在现在的市场经济社会里面
We are now a society of market economy.

我们国家的私营统计发展
There is also rapid development of statistics

也非常的繁荣
in the private sector of national economy.

这私营统计其实就是大家
These private statistics companies

看的那些注册公司
are often called registered companies,

都叫咨询公司 调查公司等等
consulting firms and research companies.

这些都属于统计工作
Their work also involves statistical collection and analysis.

统计工作
Statistics

它是与社会的需求联系在一起
has always been closely associated with social needs.

当然
Of course,

这个需求它是与宏观管理要求比较紧
the social needs are strictly consistent with the requirements of macro-management.

所以有一种讲法
So, it is widely agreed that

虽然说会计学与统计学
even though Accounting and Statistics

都是以结绳记事作为标志
were both marked by Tying Knots to keep records,

做他们学科的产生(标志)
as the symbol of the birth (herald) of the two disciplines,

但统计(学)和会计(学)
Statisticsand Accounting

最终分道扬镳
eventually separated and went on different ways.

就在于会计(学)它是为企业
Accounting becomes a provider of

提供资金运动的信息
financial information for enterprises,

而统计(学)是为宏观管理提供
while Statistics is in the service for macro-management

人 财 物等等方面的信息
regarding human, financial and material resources,

为国家进行宏观决策做准备
prepared for decision-making on macroscopic level.

当然
However,

微观统计里面
micro statistics

也要为企业的决策
also provide data basis for corporate decision-making,

比如说它的市场占有率
such as market share of company products,

产品的寿命
life span of products,

产品的质量
product quality,

产品的定价等等
pricing and so on.

库存这些都属于
Issues like inventory are also

微观统计研究的问题
important subject of research of micro statistics.

这就是统计的实践工作
And these are all practical statistical work.

Learn Statistics with Ease课程列表:

Chapter 1 Data and Statistics

-Introduction

-1.1 Applications in Business and Economics

--1.1.1 Statistics application: everywhere 统计应用:无处不在

-1.2 Data、Data Sources

--1.2.1 History of Statistical Practice: A Long Road 统计实践史:漫漫长路

-1.3 Descriptive Statistics

--1.3.1 History of Statistics: Learn from others 统计学科史:博采众长

--1.3.2 Homework 课后习题

-1.4 Statistical Inference

--1.4.1 Basic research methods: statistical tools 基本研究方法:统计的利器

--1.4.2 Homework课后习题

--1.4.3 Basic concepts: the cornerstone of statistics 基本概念:统计的基石

--1.4.4 Homework 课后习题

-1.5 Unit test 第一单元测试题

Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Methods

-Statistical surveys

-2.1Summarizing Qualitative Data

--2.1.1 Statistical investigation: the sharp edge of mining raw ore 统计调查:挖掘原矿的利刃

-2.2Frequency Distribution

--2.2.1 Scheme design: a prelude to statistical survey 方案设计:统计调查的前奏

-2.3Relative Frequency Distribution

--2.3.1 Homework 课后习题

-2.4Bar Graph

--2.4.1 Homework 课后习题

-2.6 Unit 2 test 第二单元测试题

Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Methods

-Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Methods

-3.1Measures of Location

--3.1.1 Statistics grouping: from original ecology to systematization 统计分组:从原生态到系统化

--3.1.2 Homework 课后习题

-3.2Mean、Median、Mode

--3.2.1 Frequency distribution: the initial appearance of the overall distribution characteristics 频数分布:初显总体分布特征

--3.2.2 Homework 课后习题

-3.3Percentiles

--3.3 .1 Statistics chart: show the best partner for data 统计图表:展现数据最佳拍档

--3.3.2 Homework 课后习题

-3.4Quartiles

--3.4.1 Calculating the average (1): Full expression of central tendency 计算平均数(一):集中趋势之充分表达

--3.4.2 Homework 课后习题

-3.5Measures of Variability

--3.5.1 Calculating the average (2): Full expression of central tendency 计算平均数(二):集中趋势之充分表达

--3.5.2 Homework 课后习题

-3.6Range、Interquartile Range、A.D、Variance

--3.6.1 Position average: a robust expression of central tendency 1 位置平均数:集中趋势之稳健表达1

--3.6.2 Homework 课后习题

-3.7Standard Deviation

--3.7.1 Position average: a robust expression of central tendency 2 位置平均数:集中趋势之稳健表达2

-3.8Coefficient of Variation

--3.8.1 Variance and standard deviation (1): Commonly used indicators of deviation from the center 方差与标准差(一):离中趋势之常用指标

--3.8.2 Variance and Standard Deviation (2): Commonly Used Indicators of Deviation Trend 方差与标准差(二):离中趋势之常用指标

-3.9 unit 3 test 第三单元测试题

Chapter 4 Time Series Analysis

-Time Series Analysis

-4.1 The horizontal of time series

--4.1.1 Time series (1): The past, present and future of the indicator 时间序列 (一) :指标的过去现在未来

--4.1.2 Homework 课后习题

--4.1.3 Time series (2): The past, present and future of indicators 时间序列 (二) :指标的过去现在未来

--4.1.4 Homework 课后习题

--4.1.5 Level analysis: the basis of time series analysis 水平分析:时间数列分析的基础

--4.1.6Homework 课后习题

-4.2 The speed analysis of time series

--4.2.1 Speed analysis: relative changes in time series 速度分析:时间数列的相对变动

--4.2.2 Homework 课后习题

-4.3 The calculation of the chronological average

--4.3.1 Average development speed: horizontal method and cumulative method 平均发展速度:水平法和累积法

--4.3.2 Homework 课后习题

-4.4 The calculation of average rate of development and increase

--4.4.1 Analysis of Component Factors: Finding the Truth 构成因素分析:抽丝剥茧寻真相

--4.4.2 Homework 课后习题

-4.5 The secular trend analysis of time series

--4.5.1 Long-term trend determination, smoothing method 长期趋势测定,修匀法

--4.5.2 Homework 课后习题

--4.5.3 Long-term trend determination: equation method 长期趋势测定:方程法

--4.5.4 Homework 课后习题

-4.6 The season fluctuation analysis of time series

--4.6.1 Seasonal change analysis: the same period average method 季节变动分析:同期平均法

-4.7 Unit 4 test 第四单元测试题

Chapter 5 Statistical Index

-Statistical indices

-5.1 The Conception and Type of Statistical Index

--5.1.1 Index overview: definition and classification 指数概览:定义与分类

-5.2 Aggregate Index

--5.2.1 Comprehensive index: first comprehensive and then compare 综合指数:先综合后对比

-5.4 Aggregate Index System

--5.4.1 Comprehensive Index System 综合指数体系

-5.5 Transformative Aggregate Index (Mean value index)

--5.5.1 Average index: compare first and then comprehensive (1) 平均数指数:先对比后综合(一)

--5.5.2 Average index: compare first and then comprehensive (2) 平均数指数:先对比后综合(二)

-5.6 Average target index

--5.6.1 Average index index: first average and then compare 平均指标指数:先平均后对比

-5.7 Multi-factor Index System

--5.7.1 CPI Past and Present CPI 前世今生

-5.8 Economic Index in Reality

--5.8.1 Stock Price Index: Big Family 股票价格指数:大家庭

-5.9 Unit 5 test 第五单元测试题

Chapter 6 Sampling Distributions

-Sampling and sampling distribution

-6.1The binomial distribution

--6.1.1 Sampling survey: definition and several groups of concepts 抽样调查:定义与几组概念

-6.2The geometric distribution

--6.2.1 Probability sampling: common organizational forms 概率抽样:常用组织形式

-6.3The t-distribution

--6.3.1 Non-probability sampling: commonly used sampling methods 非概率抽样:常用抽取方法

-6.4The normal distribution

--6.4.1 Common probability distributions: basic characterization of random variables 常见概率分布:随机变量的基本刻画

-6.5Using the normal table

--6.5.1 Sampling distribution: the cornerstone of sampling inference theory 抽样分布:抽样推断理论的基石

-6.9 Unit 6 test 第六单元测试题

Chapter 7 Confidence Intervals

-Parameter Estimation

-7.1Properties of point estimates: bias and variability

--7.1.1 Point estimation: methods and applications 点估计:方法与应用

-7.2Logic of confidence intervals

--7.2.1 Estimation: Selection and Evaluation 估计量:选择与评价

-7.3Meaning of confidence level

--7.3.1 Interval estimation: basic principles (1) 区间估计:基本原理(一)

--7.3.2 Interval estimation: basic principles (2) 区间估计:基本原理(二)

-7.4Confidence interval for a population proportion

--7.4.1 Interval estimation of the mean: large sample case 均值的区间估计:大样本情形

--7.4.2 Interval estimation of the mean: small sample case 均值的区间估计:小样本情形

-7.5Confidence interval for a population mean

--7.5.1 Interval estimation of the mean: small sample case 区间估计:总体比例和方差

-7.6Finding sample size

--7.6.1 Determination of sample size: a prelude to sampling (1) 样本容量的确定:抽样的前奏(一)

--7.6.2 Determination of sample size: a prelude to sampling (2) 样本容量的确定:抽样的前奏(二)

-7.7 Unit 7 Test 第七单元测试题

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Tests

-Hypothesis Tests

-8.1Forming hypotheses

--8.1.1 Hypothesis testing: proposing hypotheses 假设检验:提出假设

-8.2Logic of hypothesis testing

--8.2.1 Hypothesis testing: basic ideas 假设检验:基本思想

-8.3Type I and Type II errors

--8.3.1 Hypothesis testing: basic steps 假设检验:基本步骤

-8.4Test statistics and p-values 、Two-sided tests

--8.4.1 Example analysis: single population mean test 例题解析:单个总体均值检验

-8.5Hypothesis test for a population mean

--8.5.1 Analysis of examples of individual population proportion and variance test 例题分析 单个总体比例及方差检验

-8.6Hypothesis test for a population proportion

--8.6.1 P value: another test criterion P值:另一个检验准则

-8.7 Unit 8 test 第八单元测试题

Chapter 9 Correlation and Regression Analysis

-Correlation and regression analysis

-9.1Correlative relations

--9.1.1 Correlation analysis: exploring the connection of things 相关分析:初探事物联系

--9.1.2 Correlation coefficient: quantify the degree of correlation 相关系数:量化相关程度

-9.2The description of regression equation

--9.2.1 Regression Analysis: Application at a Glance 回归分析:应用一瞥

-9.3Fit the regression equation

--9.3.1 Regression analysis: equation establishment 回归分析:方程建立

-9.4Correlative relations of determination

--9.4.1 Regression analysis: basic ideas

--9.4.2 Regression analysis: coefficient estimation 回归分析:系数估计

-9.5The application of regression equation

--9.5.1 Regression analysis: model evaluation 回归分析:模型评价

1.2.1 History of Statistical Practice: A Long Road 统计实践史:漫漫长路笔记与讨论

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