当前课程知识点:Learn Statistics with Ease > Chapter 5 Statistical Index > 5.2 Aggregate Index > 5.2.1 Comprehensive index: first comprehensive and then compare 综合指数:先综合后对比
返回《Learn Statistics with Ease》慕课在线视频课程列表
返回《Learn Statistics with Ease》慕课在线视频列表
好 同学们
Hello everyone
我们接着来学习
now let's start
指数第二讲的知识
Lecture 2
综合指数
composite index
这一讲我们会学习综合指数的概念
In this lecture, we will learn the definition of composite index
以及综合指数的编制
and its compilation
首先来看一下
First let's take a look at
综合指数的概念
the definition of composite index
综合指数是指用两个总量指标
Composite index refers to an index
对比形成的指数
formed by comparing two total amount indicators
在总量指标中包含两个
There are two or more factors
或两个以上的因素
in the total amount indicators
指数计算中仅观察被研究因素的变动
but only the changes of the factor under study are observed
它的特点是先综合后对比
The calculation follows the steps of synthesis first and then comparison
接下来我们来介绍
Next, let's take a look at
综合指数的编制
the compilation of composite indexes
来看它的编制是如何体现
and see how the compilation follows
先综合后对比的
the steps of synthesis first and then comparison
我们来以下面的例子
Here is an example
展开综合指数的编制
in which we are to compile the composite index
假如我们现在要了解的是
Suppose we are to investigate
天猫2015年双十一和双十二
changes in the quantitative characteristics
促销活动中
of some of Tmall's products
要了解天猫的商品的数量特征的
during the Double Twelve promotion of Tmall in 2015
变动情况
compared with the data during the Double Eleven promotion of the same year
为了了解天猫的销售量和
In order to find out the fluctuations
销售价格的波动情况
in the sales volume and sales price
我收集了部分商品
I have collected data of some of the products
在我们黑板上的数据里面
on the blackboard
我收集了太平鸟某款女羊毛大衣
I collected data on a PeaceBird women's wool coat
创维电视 还有骆驼的男鞋
a Skyworth TV, Camel men's shoes
飞利浦吸尘器
a Philips vacuum cleaner
以及海尔的某一款电冰箱
and a Haier refrigerator
那么它们在双十一和双十二期间的
I have collected data on their sales volumes and sales prices
销量以及价格我都一一收集到了
during the Double Eleven and Double Twelve promotions
在表格中有了这些数据
With these data in the table
我们可以尝试着来分析
we can compare the turnover
天猫商城双十二和双十一相比
(of the 5 commodities) of Tmall
它的(5种商品)营业额
during the Double Twelve promotion
发生了什么样的变化
and the Double Eleven promotion
第二
Secondly
我可以了解天猫(5种)商品的销售量
we can find out changes in the sales volume
发生了什么样的变化
(of the 5 commodities) of Tmall
由于销售量的变化
and how much is the impact
那么它对于营业额又造成了
caused by changes
多少的影响
in the sales volume
第三 我还可以利用这些数据
Thirdly, with these data
分析天猫(5种)商品的销售价格
we can also find out the changes
发生了怎样的变化
in the sales prices (of the 5 commodities) of Tmall
那么由于价格的变化
and the impact
又对天猫的营业额产生了
of price changes
多大的影响
on the turnover of Tmall
那么一般情况下
In general
我们在计算的时候
we keep two decimal places
都保留两位小数
in calculation
接下来我们就来看一下
Next, let's see
这三个任务
how to perform
应该怎么样来完成呢
these three steps
首先我们来看第一个
First let's figure out
总变动指数
the total index of change
如果要了解总变动指数
If we want to figure out the total index of change
通常情况下
or here
我们可以把它称之为营业额总指数
we can call it the total index of turnover
那么我们可以先来分析一下
Let's see
营业额总指数应该如何来计算呢
how to work out the total index of turnover
我们从前面的学习知道
As we've learned in the previous lecture
指数是反映报告期和基期相比的
index reflects the fluctuations of quantity
数量的波动情况
between the given period and the base period
那就意味着我们需要找到
It means that
报告期的营业额和基期的营业额
we need to compare
来进行比较
the turnover of the given period
基期的销售额
and the base period
那就是p{\fs8}0{\r}×q{\fs8}0{\r}
Turnover in the base period is p{\fs8}0{\r}×q{\fs8}0{\r}
报告期的销售额是p{\fs8}1{\r}× q{\fs8}1{\r}
and turnover in the given period is p{\fs8}1{\r}× q{\fs8}1{\r}
一种商品营业额的变动
Changes in the turnover of a commodity
可以用p{\fs8}0{\r} q{\fs8}0{\r}
can be expressed as p{\fs8}0{\r} q{\fs8}0{\r}
变动的p{\fs8}1{\r} q{\fs8}1{\r}来展示
and p{\fs8}1{\r} q{\fs8}1{\r}
但是我们现在需要有五种商品
But we now need to find out the general changes
营业额的综合变动
in the turnover of the five commodities
那么现在问题来了
So here is a question
营业额这个指标
can the indicator of turnover
能直接求和吗
be summed up directly
能不能
Yes, or not
大家分析一下
Let's think about the answer
对
Yes
根据我们在第一讲里边的提示
According to what we learned in lecture 1
类似于销售额
although indicators such as sales
类似于营业额 总成本
turnover, total costs
总费用这一类指标
and total expenses
虽然它们也属于数量指标
are quantitative indicators
但是由于它们是用价值量计量的
they are measured by value
因此它们在不同的商品之间
so they can be directly summed up
是可以直接求和的
between different commodities
因此五种商品基期的营业额
So the turnover of the five commodities in the base period
可以用五种商品各自的营业额
can be obtained
直接求和来得到
by directly summing up the turnovers of the five commodities
那当然报告期也可以用
Surely, turnover of the given period
同样的方法来计算
can also be figured out in the same way
因此我们就可以用(字符如上)
So, we can use (character as the above)
来代表基期的营业额
to represent the turnover of the base period
用(字符如上)来代表报告期的营业额
and use (character as the above) to represent the turnover of the given period
也就意味着其实在计算营业额
So we can easily collect
总指数的时候
the data needed
我们是非常顺利地就可以采集到
for the calculation
我们想要的资料
of the total turnover index
因此
So
我们可以来计算指数
By having sales of given period
用报告期的销售额
divided by sales in the base period
除以基期的销售额
we can figure out the index
也就像我们黑板上所显示的
It can be calculated via the formula as shown on the blackboard
(公式如上)来反映
(formula as the above)
同时我们还可以计算
Meanwhile, we can also figure out
报告期和基期相比
the change in turnover
它的营业额发生了多少的变动
between the given period and the base period
当然这就是从绝对数的角度
This is a method
来分析销售的变动情况
to analyze changes in sales
计算的方法
from the perspective of absolute numbers
也在黑板上用(公式如上)
which can be achieved via the formula
就可以实现
(the formula is as above) as shown on the blackboard
那具体的数字
For specific numbers
我们可以回到表格里面
we can go back to the table
把p{\fs8}0{\r} q{\fs8}0{\r}
and figure out the numbers corresponding to p{\fs8}0{\r} q{\fs8}0{\r}
把p{\fs8}1{\r} q{\fs8}1{\r}所对应的数字
and p{\fs8}1{\r} q{\fs8}1{\r}
一一计算出来
one by one
比如太平鸟女羊毛大衣
For example, for the PeaceBird women wool coat
它的基期的销售额是359898元
sales in the base period is CNY 359,898
它的报告期的销售额是121506元
sales in the given period is CNY 121,506
对应的基期的综合是2474927元
the corresponding sales total in base period is CNY 2,474,927
对应的报告期的营业总额是
the corresponding total turnover in base period is
2179209元
CNY 2,179,209
那有了这个汇总的数据
With these data
我们很快可以计算营业额总指数
we are able to figure out the total index of turnover
通常营业额总指数
Generally, the total index of turnover
用大写的(字符如上)来表示
is expressed in uppercase (character as the above)
它的计算的方法用报告期的营业额
It is equal to the turnover of the given period
除以基期的营业额
divided by the turnover of the base period
也就是我们说的(公式如上)
which is what we’ve mentioned (formula as the above)
把表格中的数字代入进来
Plug the numbers in the table into the formula
计算的结果88.05%
the result obtained is 88.05%
通常指数是用百分数来表示的
Usually, indexes are expressed in percentage
那么88.05%说明了什么呢
But what does 88.05% mean
说明天猫(5种商品)双十二和双十一相比
It means that the turnover (of the 5 commodities) of Tmall has dropped
它的营业额是下降了
during Double Twelve promotion, compared with the that in Double Eleven promotion
对不对
right
下降了多少呢
How much is the drop
下降了11.95%
It has dropped by 11.95%
对吧
right
那这样通过这个指数
Through this index
我们就可以了解天猫商城(5种商品)在
we get to know the changes in sales (of the 5 commodities) of Tmall
双十二和双十一期间
during the Double Twelve promotion
它的销售额的变动的情况
Compared with that in the Double Eleven promotion
那么下降11.95%意味着
So with a drop of 11.95%
它的总额上面减少了多少呢
how much is the reduction in turnover
那我们可以进一步计算
We can make further calculation
(公式如上)
(formula as the above)
得到的结果是报告期和基期相比
The result is that
它的营业额减少了
its turnover has decreased by CNY 295,718
295718元
compared with the base period
可以得到一个基本的结论
We can draw a conclusion that
天猫商城双十二和双十一相比
the turnover of Tmall during the Double Twelve promotion
它的营业额
has decreased by CNY 295,718
下降了295718元
compared with that in Double Eleven promotion
那通过这个指数
Through this index
我们就可以反映营业额的变动
the change in turnover can be reflected
那么营业额发生变动
But what are the causes
它可能由什么原因来造成呢
of change in turnover
一般来讲要不 是销售量发生了变化
Generally speaking, it is caused by either changes in sales volume
要不 是销售价格发生了变化对不对
or changes in sales price, right
所以我们接下来就可以来分析
So, next, we can analyze
这个销售额的变动里边
how much of the change in sales
有多少是销售量变动引起的
is caused by changes in sales volume
有多少是销售价格变动来引起的
and how much is caused by changes in sales prices
接下来我们来看
Now, let's proceed to
数量指标指数的计算
the calculation of quantitative indicator index
在这里具体的我们可以把它称之为
Here we can call it
销售量总指数
the total index of sales volumes
还是刚才前面的数据
Still, we will use the previous data
还是那五种商品双十一和双十二的
the data of sales and prices of the five commodities
销量以及价格的资料
during the Double Eleven and Double Twelve promotion
那么如果我现在要计算五种商品
So if I want to figure out the comprehensive change in sales volumes
销售量的综合变动程度
of the five commodities
也就意味着我要算一个销售量总指数
I will need to work out a total index of sales volumes
我们还是可以像刚才那样
Like what we did previously
先来分析一下
Let's see
如果我要反映某一种商品的
if I want to find out the changes in sales volume
销售量的变动
of a certain commodity
那么计算
then I need only to
个体销量指数就可以了
figure out the individual index of sales
那五种商品综合在一起的
As we've mentioned in the first lecture
销售量变动
changes in the synthesized sales volume
刚才第一讲里边我们也提过
of the five commodities
它是不能够直接通过
cannot be directly figured out
(公式如上)来实现的
via (formula as the above)
因为q的计量单位各不相同
because the measurement unit of q is different
对不对
right
那这种情况下面
In this case, how can we follow the
我们怎么样来完成先综合后对比
steps of synthesis first and then comparison
其实所谓先综合后对比
In fact, the so-called synthesis first and then comparison steps
刚才在营业额总指数里边
as we've found out
已经体会到
when calculating the total index of turnover
就是我们先要求报告期的总量
refer to figuring out the total amount of the given period first
再求基期的总量
and then to work out the total amount of the base period
然后用报告期的总量
Finally, the total amount of the given period
来除以基期的总量
is divided by the total amount of the base period
那么Σq{\fs8}1{\r} Σq{\fs8}0{\r}此路不通
So if Σq{\fs8}1{\r} and Σq{\fs8}0{\r} are not working,
那我们怎么办呢
what should we do
一定要找到一种方法
We shall find a way
来结果先综合的问题
to solve this problem first
对不对
right
所以接下来我们来介绍一下
So next we will discuss
解决问题的办法
the solution to the problem
既然q直接不能综合
Since q cannot be synthesized directly
那对于我们来讲
we are only able to
就只能采取迂回的线路
take an indirect method
也就是说我能不能通过引入
That is to say, can we
某一个桥梁或者
use a bridge
某一个媒介的方式
or a medium
把它转换成能够求和的指标呢
so that it is converted into a summable index
来看一下我们整个系统里边
Let's see, in the entire system
q不能被直接求和
q cannot be summed up directly,
p也不能被直接求和
neither can p
对不对
right
但是有一个指标
But there is an indicator
能被直接求和
can be summed up directly
它就是
it is
对
yes
营业额
it is the turnover
那我们是不是可能通过将q
Can we convert
转换成营业额的形式
q into turnover
就可以完成求和的过程呢
and finish the step of summation
对
Yes
在理论上面
theoretically
我们确实有是这样来处理的
we do deal with it this way
所以我们解决思路的第一步是
So, the first step in our solution
引入一个媒介
is to introduce a medium
通常情况下
Normally
我们把引入的这个媒介
the medium introduced
称之为同度量因素
is called the isometric factor
而把我们准备分析的这个指标的
and the change of the indicator which we are to analyze
变动称之为指数化因素
is called the indexation factor
比如在我们这一次的分析里边
For example, here
指数化因素
the indexation factor
就是销售量
is the sales volume
那么销售量不能直接求和
Since sales volume cannot be summed up directly
我要把它转换成
We need to convert it
营业额
into turnover
我必须引入一个媒介
We shall introduce a medium
这个媒介就是销售价格
which is the sales price
那么我们就把销售价格
And here the sales price
称之为同度量因素
is called the isometric factor
引入这个媒介以后
After introducing this medium
我们的销售量就转换成营业额
sales volume is converted into turnover
那营业额这个数据
Since turnover
它是可以被直接求和的
can be summed up directly
对不对
right
因此第一步综合的问题
so the first step of synthesis
是通过这样的方法
is performed
来解决的
in this way
同度量因素
The isometric factor
是指这样的一个媒介
is a medium that
使同度量指标转换成同度量
converts the different measurements of an index into the same measurement
同度量就是同样的计量单位
The same measurement means the same unit of measurement
那就可以直接被求和了
so the data can be summed up directly
所以它起来的是
So it plays the role
这样一个媒介的作用
of a medium
那完成了第一步综合
Here is first step of synthesis
接下来就是对比
the next step is comparison
对不对
right
那是不是意味着我们接下来
Does it mean that
只要(公式如上)
as long as we follow (formula as the above)
计算的就是销售量总指数
we can figure out the total index of sales volumes
(公式如上)
(formula as the above)
这个指数形式
Are you familiar
我们是不是有点熟悉它呢
with the form of this index
对
Yes
它就是我们刚刚介绍的
It is the total index of turnover
营业额总指数
we’ve just discussed
对不对
right
那问题出在哪里呢
So what is the problem
销售量总指数
The total index of sales volume
应该单独只反映销售量的变动
should reflect changes in sales volume only
对不对
right
那价格就不能跟着一起来动
Then the price shall not change with it
所以第二步
So after finishing
完成了综合以后
the second step
我们要单独反映指数化因素的变动
to reflect the changes in the indexation factor separately
那就要把同度量因素
we shall fix the time
时间给固定下来
of the isometric factor
当然我们既可以把它的时间
Surely, we can either fix its time
固定在基期
at the base period
也可以把它的时间都固定在报告期
or fix it at the given period
这两种是最常见的
These two methods are the most common
甚至也可以选择将同度量因素
We can even fix the time of the isometric factor
固定在中间的某一个时间段
at a certain period in the middle
这都是可行的
All are feasible
但是最常用的是两种
But two of them are the most common method
一种是固定在基期的
One is to fix it at the base period
我们通常把它称之为拉氏指数
and the index worked out in this way is usually called the Laspeyres index
它是由德国的统计学家Laspeyres
because this method is created by
在1864年的时候所提出来的
a German statistician whose name is Laspeyres in 1864
而把同度量因素
The other method is to fix the time of the isometric factor
固定在报告期的指数
at the given period
通常称之为帕氏指数
and the index worked out in this way is usually called the Paasche index
它是由德国的另一个统计学家
This method was proposed by Paasche
Pacsche在1874年的时候
another German statistician
所提出来的
in 1874
好
Well
我们刚才提到了拉氏的
we now have the Laspeyres
销售数量指数和
Laspeyres index of sales volumes
帕氏的销售数量指数
and the Paasche index of sales volume
这个地方提醒大家一下
Here please be noted that
通常我们在写综合指数的时候
in the written form of a composite index
采用的方法是指数化因素在前
the indexation factor is in the front
同度量因素在后
and the isometric factor is behind it
什么意思呢
What does that mean
比如我们在写
For example, when we write
拉氏的销售量指数的时候
a Laspeyres index of sales volumes
那我们写(公式如上)
it is (the formula is as above)
先把架子搭好
We set up the frame first
再把它们的时间放上去
and then put in the time
那q的时间分子是1
The numerator of the time of q is 1
分母是0
and its denominator is 0
p的时间是固定在0 0
while p is fixed at 0 and 0
接下来我们就来看一下
Next, let's see
这两种指数利用我们刚才的数据
what will be the results of the two indexes
所计算的结果
figured out
会是如何
using the previous data
那为了完成拉氏指数
To work out the Laspeyres index
或者是帕氏指数的计算
or the Paasche index
从刚才的计算式子里面来看
according to the formula just now
我们需要在表格里边
we need to add some information
补充一些信息
into the table
比如拉氏指数的计算
For example, the calculation of the Laspeyres index
是Σq{\fs8}1{\r}p{\fs8}0{\r}除以Σp{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}0{\r}
is Σq{\fs8}1{\r}p{\fs8}0{\r} divided by Σp{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}0{\r}
刚才咱们算营业额总指数的时候
When calculating the total index of turnover just now
已经算好了p{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}0{\r}
we have figured out p{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}0{\r}
已经算好了p{\fs8}1{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}
and p{\fs8}1{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}
但是并没有q{\fs8}0{\r}p{\fs8}1{\r}的组合
but we have not the combination of q{\fs8}0{\r}p{\fs8}1{\r}
也没有p{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}的组合
nor of p{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}
所以我们需要在表格里面
So we need to supplement these two combinations
再把这两个组合补充上来
in the table
并计算它们的总量
and figure out their total
有了这个表格里面的这些信息以后
With the data in this table
接下来我们就可以来算拉氏指数
we can then calculate the Laspeyres index
和帕氏指数
and the Paasche index
当然这里都是计算的销售量总指数
Surely here it is the total index of sales volume that is calculated
把表格中的数字代入到
We plug the numbers in the table
拉氏指数的计算式子里边
into the formula of the Laspeyres index
我们来看它的结果
and see its result
那Σq{\fs8}1{\r}p{\fs8}0{\r}
We see Σq{\fs8}1{\r}p{\fs8}0{\r}
是2261659元
is equal to CNY 2,261,659
Σq{\fs8}0{\r}p{\fs8}0{\r}是2474927元
and Σq{\fs8}0{\r}p{\fs8}0{\r} is equal to CNY 2,474,927
那把分子除以分母
After the numerator is divided by the denominator
可以得到91.38%
we get 91.38%
这个数字计算出来告诉我们
This result tells us that
如果用拉氏指数来计算
if we use the Laspeyres index for calculation
天猫商城(5种商品)双十二和双十一相比较
the sales volume (of the 5 commodities) of Tmall
during the Double Twelve promotion
销售量是减少了
has dropped, compared with that in the Double Eleven promotion
对不对
right
减少了多少呢
How much is the drop
减少了8.62个百分点
It is 8.62%
那么它的销售量减少
Since the sales volume has dropped
如果价格没有变
if the prices are the same
是不是会导致营业额减少呢
then the turnover will be reduced, right
肯定对的
Absolutely
那么我们可以进一步计算
Then we can further calculate
由于销售量的减少
the change in turnover
所导致的营业额的变动
due to the decrease in sales volume
用报告期减去基期的数字
which is figured out by subtracting the turnover of the base period from that of the given period
那就是用(公式如上)
using (formula as the above)
那么结果是-213268元
and the result is CNY -213,268
也就意味着由于销售量下降
This means that due to decline in sales volume
价格保持不变
when the price remains the same
那么营业额就发生了一个波动
a fluctuation in turnover will occur
这个波动是减少了213268元
In this fluctuation, the turnover is reduced by CNY 213,268
那同样地
Similarly
我们可以把表格中的数字
we can plug the numbers in the table
代入到帕氏指数的计算式子里面
into the formula of the Paasche index
结果是87.11%
and its result is 87.11%
说明用这个指数来算
It shows that if we use this index to calculate the changes in sales volume of Tmall
天猫双十二的销量比双十一的销量
the sales volume during the Double Twelve promotion had a reduction of 12.89%
是下降了12.89个百分点
compared with that in the Double Eleven promotion
同样的由于它的减少
Similarly, due to this reduction
使得营业额减少了322338元
the turnover decreased by CNY 322,338
我们是不是就发现一个问题呢
Do you the problem
用拉氏指数和帕氏指数计算的结果
The results worked out using the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index
它不等
are not equal to each other
不等对我们来讲
which is not a good sign
可能不是一件好事情
for us
因为不等
Since the results are different
就意味着我们要面临着选择
it means that we have to choose from one of them
如果等
If they are equal to each other
那就无所谓了
then there will be no problem
随便用拉氏(指数)还是用帕氏(指数)来计算
We can calculate the total index of sales volumes
销售量总指数都是可行的
using either the Laspeyres index or the Paasche index
对不对
right
那它们不等
But they are not equal to each other
就意味着我们要面临着选择
meaning that we have to make a choice
到底是用拉氏指数更好
Is it better to use the Laspeyres index
还是用帕氏指数更好呢
or the Paasche index
那么同学们
So, everyone
我们来思考一下
let's think about it
如果我现在的目标是单独反映
If only the total change in sales volume
销售量的总变动
is to be reflected
这两个指数
which of these two indexes
你们觉得哪一个真的
do you think
只有销售量的变动
reflects only changes in sales volume
而没有价格的变动呢
but no changes in price
是拉氏指数的算法
Is it the Laspeyres index
还是帕氏指数的算法呢
or the Paasche index
我们观察的结果是
According to our observation
虽然拉氏指数也好
although the time of both the Laspeyres index
帕氏指数也好
and the Paasche index
它们的同度量因素时间都被固定了
is fixed
但是帕氏指数里边已经隐含了
the change in the isometric factor
同度量因素
from the base period to the given period
从基期到报告期的变动
is already contained in the Paasche index
对不对
right
所以如果从这个角度来看
So from this point of view
拉氏指数是真正意义上没有
the Laspeyres index reflects
价格的变动
no changes in price
而单独只有销售量的变动
but only changes in sales volume
因此它是更准确地能够
So, it can reflect the changes
反映销售量这个指标的变动情况
in the indicator of sales volume more accurately
在我们指数编制的操作里边
During our compilation of index
一般我们编制数量指标的原则
generally, we use the Laspeyres index method
就是采用拉氏指数的方法
to compile indexes for
来编制的
quantitative indicators
和我们刚才的分析
which is consistent
也是对应的
with our analysis just now
因此在拉氏指数和帕氏指数里边
So, between the Laspeyres index and the Paasche index
我们通常会选择拉氏指数来计算
we usually choose the Laspeyres index
销售量总指数
to calculate the total index of sales volume
也就是说(公式如上)
That is (formula as the above)
它是等于91.38
which is equal to 91.38
而由于它的减少
Due to this reduction
它的下降
in total sales volume
使得营业额是减少了213268元
the turnover was reduced by CNY 213,268
这就是销售量总指数
This is the calculation of
它的计算的方法
the total index of sales volume
好
有了这个基本原理
Well, based on this basic principle
我们接下来介绍
let's proceed to the calculation
质量指标指数
of quality index
也就是销售价格总指数的计算
which is the total index of sales price here
我想有了刚才分析的思路
With the idea
对于销售价格总指数的计算
for the calculation of the total index of sales price
我们可以自己来给它做一个推导
we can make
做一个分析
a deduction
既然还是综合指数的范畴
Since it is still composite index we are to calculate
那么它的特点还是先综合后对比
we shall still follow the steps of synthesis first and then comparison
第一步要解决综合的问题
The first step is to solve the problem of synthesis
价格这个指标同样地也是
The indicator of price can have
不同的计量单位
different units
不同度量的
and different measurements
那么如果要完成它的综合
So if we want to synthesize prices
是不是也要像刚才
shall we introduce a medium
销售量总指数的计算一样
like we did in the calculation of the total index of sales volumes
要先引入一个媒介呢
just now
对的
Yes
只不过
But here
这一次价格是作为指数化因素
price is used as an indexation factor
而销售量
while sales volume
是作为同度量因素
is used as the isometric factor
它们的位置
Their positions
互换了一下
are reversed
被综合以后的指标
The indicator after the synthesis
其实都是营业额这个指标
is actually the indicator of turnover
对不对
right
所以这里的第一步
So the first step here
跟刚才前面的第一步基本一致
is basically the same as the previous one
引入同度量因素
which is the introduction of the isometric factor
指数化因素是p
The indexation factor is p
同度量因素是q
the isometric factor is q
转换以后的能综合的指标
the composite indicator after the conversion
是p q的组合
is a combination of p and q
也就是营业额了
which is actually the turnover
好
Okay
完成了综合
after synthesis
接下来我们就要进行对比
let's proceed to comparison
对比我们依然要用报告期的
For comparison, we will still have the data of given period
除以基期的
divided by that of the base period
同样地
Similarly
如果我们不将同度量因素的时间
if we do not fix the time
固定下来
of the isometric factor
那两个因素的时间
the time of those two factors
同时都会发生变化
will change simultaneously
这样我们得到的就会是
In this way, the index we obtain will be
营业额总指数
the total index of turnover
我们接下来就要把同度量的因素
So in the next step, we need to fix the time
固定下来
of the isometric factor
单独反映指数化因素的变动
in order to reflect the changes of indexation factor separately
同样地我们会得到两个指数
Similarly, we will get two indexes
第一是拉氏的价格指数
The first is the Laspeyres index of price
第二是帕氏的价格指数
The second is the Paasche price index
可以想象用刚才表格里边的数据
We can imagine that the Laspeyres index of price
去计算拉氏的价格指数和
and the Paasche index of price
帕氏的价格指数
figured out
得到的结果
using the data in the previous table
应该也不一样
shall not be equal to each other
对不对
right
不信我们来看一下
If you don't think so, let's take a look at
具体的计算结果
the results of the calculation
那我们看到用拉氏的价格指数
We see the Laspeyres index of price
所计算的结果是101.08%
figured out is 101.08%
由于价格上升
Since there price has risen
那么肯定要使得营业额增加
there is sure to be increase in turnover
增加了多少呢
but how much
增加了26620块钱
The turnover has increased by CNY 26,620
那用帕氏的方法
What about
所计算的指数结果呢
the Paasche price index
是96.35%
It is 96.35%
下降了是不是
which is lower than the Laspeyres price index
下降了多少呢
How much is the decrease
下降了3.65%
It has decreased by 3.65%
由于价格下降销售量保持不变
Since the price has dropped, but the sales volume remains the same
那肯定销售额 营业额
then surely the sales volume and the turnover
是要减少的
will be reduced
减少了多少
How much is the reduction
82450元
It is CNY 82,450
好 在刚才的营业额总指数的计算中
Well, from the calculation of the total index of turnover just now
我们已经发现
we have found that
天猫(5种商品)双十二和双十一相比
the turnover of (of the 5 commodities) of Tmall during the Double Twelve promotion
它的营业额是减少了295718元
was reduced by CNY 295,718, compared with that in the Double Eleven promotion
那如果前面的销售量总指数
If in the previous calculation
已经选择了拉氏价格指数计算的话
The Laspeyres index of price was selected as the index of sales volume
那么由于销售量的减少
Then the decrease of total turnover
使得它减少的金额
due to the reduction in sales volume
是213268元
is CNY 213,268
那用这两个数字一减
By subtracting CNY 295,718 from CNY 213,268
得到的结果正好是-82450元
the result obtained is CNY -82,450
我们来看一下
We see
它对应的正好是
this number is exactly
帕氏指数的计算的结果对不对
the number of the Paasche index, right
这也就告诉我们
This tells us that
如果销售量总指数已经选择了
if the Laspeyres index was selected as
拉氏指数来计算的话
the total index of sales volume in the calculation
那么价格指数
then we can no longer use the Laspeyres index of price
不能再选择拉氏价格指数来计算
as the index of price
要不然营业额的变动
otherwise there will be a third factor
就还会有第三个因素的影响了
affecting the change in turnover
对不对
right
那我们也可以从另外一个角度
We can also analyze the meaning of index from another perspective of view
就是指数本身的构造
which is the construction of the index
这个角度来分析
From this point of view
指数所代表的含义
we can know the meaning of index
我们可以首先来看一下
First let's take a look at
拉氏价格指数
the Laspeyres index of price
(公式如上)
(formula as the above)
那如果站在消费者的角度来想象
If from the perspective of a consumer
这个指数的含义是
the meaning of index is in that
是我上个月买水果
I bought fruits last month
我记住我买了多少
which cost me a certain amount of money
然后由于这个水果
and in this month
这个月比上个月价格上涨
due to changes in the fruit prices, I paid another amount of money for fruits
或者下跌
and the money I paid for fruits in this month has increased or decrease by a certain amount
我多支付或者少支付的钱对不对
compared with that in last month, right
那如果是帕氏价格指数呢
If it is the Paasche index of price that we choose
它用的(公式如上)
The formula is (formula as the above)
它的同度量因素是被固定在
The time of the isometric factor
报告期的
is fixed at the given period
也就意味着是我当期买水果
which means that, due to price change
由于水果的价格的变化
the difference in payment for fruits between this and last month
使得我多支付或者是少支付的钱
is based on the time of the given period
同学们想一想
Which of these two situations
这两种情形
do you think
哪一种更符合我们消费者(的行为习惯)
is more in line with consumers' behavior
你是总是牢牢地记住
When buying fruits, do you always remember
你上个月的买水果的情况
the money paid last month and use it as a base to calculate the changes
还是你当期买水果
or do you make comparison based on the current period
然后再去比较价格下跌(或上涨)
and see how much the change in price
给你带来的影响
will affect the cost
更符合我们的实际呢
Which one is more in line with your actual behavior
对
Yes
肯定我们更符合实际的是
surely actually when we buy fruits
我当期买水果
we make comparison based on the current period
然后我可能会比较价格的变动
to see how much the change in price
对我当期的消费行为
will affect the cost
所带来的影响
and the result of this comparison will further affect our behavior
所以从指数构造的实际
So from the perspective of the actual economic significance
经济意义的角度来分析的话
of the structure of index
帕氏价格指数
the Paasche index of price
也更具经济意义
is economically more significant
因此我们在计算价格指数的时候
Therefore, when calculating the index of price
也就是质量指标指数的时候
which is a quality indicator index
通常的编制原则是
the general principle of compilation
帕氏指数的方法来计算
is to use the Paasche index method
那也就意味着我们现在用
By using the using the Paasche index method
帕氏指数的方法来计算得到的
the K{\fs8}p{\r}bar figured out
K{\fs8}p{\r}bar它是等于96.35%
is equivalent to 96.35%
由于价格的变化
The change in turnover
使得营业额的变化额度
caused by change in price
也可以计算出来
can also be figured out
Σp{\fs8}1{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}-Σp{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}等于-82450元
which is Σp{\fs8}1{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}-Σp{\fs8}0{\r}q{\fs8}1{\r}, and the result is CNY -82,450
这样的话我们就通过
In this way, we have completed the compilation
先综合 后对比的过程
of the total index of sales volumes
完成了销售量总指数的编制
and the total index of sales price
和销售价格总指数的编制
through the steps of first synthesis and then comparison
当然是以它们为代表的
They are examples of the compilation
数量指标指数和
of quantitative indicator index
质量指标指数的编制
and quality indicator index
接下来我们稍稍地来总结一下
Now let's briefly summarize
质量指标指数的编制过程
the process of compiling quality indicator indexes
综合指数的编制
The compilation of a composite index
它的特点是先综合 后对比
is characterized by the calculation steps of synthesis first and then comparison
所以我们的基本步骤
So the first step is to
就是第一步引入同度量因素
introduce the isometric factor
帮助我们完成先综合的过程
to help us with the synthesis
在引入同度量因素的时候
When introducing the isometric factor
我们注意到有这样一个基本特点
we noticed that
就是当我们的指数化因素
when the indexation factor
是q的时候
is q
引入的同度量因素
which is a quantitative indicator
是p
the isometric factor introduced is p
q是数量指标
which is
p是质量指标
a quality indicator
它们在指标性质上是互补的
They are complementary to each other in nature
对不对
right
而当我们的指数化因素是P的时候
When the indexation factor is p
我们引入的同度量因素
the isometric factor introduced
就是q
is q
那么指数化因素是质量指标
Then the indexation factor is a quality indicator
同度量因素
while the isometric factor
又是数量指标
is a quantitative indicator
它们在性质上也是互补的
They are also complementary to each other in nature
所以我们在引入同度量因素的时候
So when introducing the isometric factor
就有这个考虑的方向
we may put this into consideration
它和我们的指数化因素
The isometric factor
是互补的
is complementary to the indexation factor
第二一个
The second step is
对比
comparison
对比要体现指数化因素的单独变动
The purpose of comparison
那么我们必须要做的一个工作是
is to reflect the changes in indexation factor separately
把同度量因素的时间固定下来
so we need to fix the time of the isometric factor
根据咱们前面的计算分析
According to the previous analysis and calculation
我们得到了计算数量指标指数和
We find out the general principle
质量指标指数的一般原则是
of the calculation of quantitative index and quality index
如果是数量指标指数我们采用的是
For a quantitative index
拉氏指数的计算方法
we use the Laspeyres index method
它的同度量因素一般是被固定在
and the time of the isometric factor is generally fixed at
基期的
the base period
而如果是质量指标指数
For a quality index
那么我们通常采用的是帕氏指数的
we usually use the Paasche index
计算方法
method
它的同度量因素是被固定在
and the time of the isometric factor is fixed at
报告期的
the given period
这就是综合指数编制的基本原理
This is the basic principle of the compilation of composite indexes
同学们
Have you got
大家掌握了没有
it now
今天的课就到这里
Here is end
结束了
of this lecture
下一节课
In the next lecture
我们接着再来介绍
we will introduce
综合指数体系的有关内容
the system of composite indexes
-1.1 Applications in Business and Economics
--1.1.1 Statistics application: everywhere 统计应用:无处不在
-1.2 Data、Data Sources
--1.2.1 History of Statistical Practice: A Long Road 统计实践史:漫漫长路
-1.3 Descriptive Statistics
--1.3.1 History of Statistics: Learn from others 统计学科史:博采众长
--1.3.2 Homework 课后习题
-1.4 Statistical Inference
--1.4.1 Basic research methods: statistical tools 基本研究方法:统计的利器
--1.4.2 Homework课后习题
--1.4.3 Basic concepts: the cornerstone of statistics 基本概念:统计的基石
--1.4.4 Homework 课后习题
-1.5 Unit test 第一单元测试题
-2.1Summarizing Qualitative Data
--2.1.1 Statistical investigation: the sharp edge of mining raw ore 统计调查:挖掘原矿的利刃
-2.2Frequency Distribution
--2.2.1 Scheme design: a prelude to statistical survey 方案设计:统计调查的前奏
-2.3Relative Frequency Distribution
--2.3.1 Homework 课后习题
-2.4Bar Graph
--2.4.1 Homework 课后习题
-2.6 Unit 2 test 第二单元测试题
-Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Methods
-3.1Measures of Location
--3.1.1 Statistics grouping: from original ecology to systematization 统计分组:从原生态到系统化
--3.1.2 Homework 课后习题
-3.2Mean、Median、Mode
--3.2.2 Homework 课后习题
-3.3Percentiles
--3.3 .1 Statistics chart: show the best partner for data 统计图表:展现数据最佳拍档
--3.3.2 Homework 课后习题
-3.4Quartiles
--3.4.1 Calculating the average (1): Full expression of central tendency 计算平均数(一):集中趋势之充分表达
--3.4.2 Homework 课后习题
-3.5Measures of Variability
--3.5.1 Calculating the average (2): Full expression of central tendency 计算平均数(二):集中趋势之充分表达
--3.5.2 Homework 课后习题
-3.6Range、Interquartile Range、A.D、Variance
--3.6.1 Position average: a robust expression of central tendency 1 位置平均数:集中趋势之稳健表达1
--3.6.2 Homework 课后习题
-3.7Standard Deviation
--3.7.1 Position average: a robust expression of central tendency 2 位置平均数:集中趋势之稳健表达2
-3.8Coefficient of Variation
-3.9 unit 3 test 第三单元测试题
-4.1 The horizontal of time series
--4.1.1 Time series (1): The past, present and future of the indicator 时间序列 (一) :指标的过去现在未来
--4.1.2 Homework 课后习题
--4.1.3 Time series (2): The past, present and future of indicators 时间序列 (二) :指标的过去现在未来
--4.1.4 Homework 课后习题
--4.1.5 Level analysis: the basis of time series analysis 水平分析:时间数列分析的基础
--4.1.6Homework 课后习题
-4.2 The speed analysis of time series
--4.2.1 Speed analysis: relative changes in time series 速度分析:时间数列的相对变动
--4.2.2 Homework 课后习题
-4.3 The calculation of the chronological average
--4.3.1 Average development speed: horizontal method and cumulative method 平均发展速度:水平法和累积法
--4.3.2 Homework 课后习题
-4.4 The calculation of average rate of development and increase
--4.4.1 Analysis of Component Factors: Finding the Truth 构成因素分析:抽丝剥茧寻真相
--4.4.2 Homework 课后习题
-4.5 The secular trend analysis of time series
--4.5.1 Long-term trend determination, smoothing method 长期趋势测定,修匀法
--4.5.2 Homework 课后习题
--4.5.3 Long-term trend determination: equation method 长期趋势测定:方程法
--4.5.4 Homework 课后习题
-4.6 The season fluctuation analysis of time series
--4.6.1 Seasonal change analysis: the same period average method 季节变动分析:同期平均法
-4.7 Unit 4 test 第四单元测试题
-5.1 The Conception and Type of Statistical Index
--5.1.1 Index overview: definition and classification 指数概览:定义与分类
-5.2 Aggregate Index
--5.2.1 Comprehensive index: first comprehensive and then compare 综合指数:先综合后对比
-5.4 Aggregate Index System
--5.4.1 Comprehensive Index System 综合指数体系
-5.5 Transformative Aggregate Index (Mean value index)
--5.5.1 Average index: compare first and then comprehensive (1) 平均数指数:先对比后综合(一)
--5.5.2 Average index: compare first and then comprehensive (2) 平均数指数:先对比后综合(二)
-5.6 Average target index
--5.6.1 Average index index: first average and then compare 平均指标指数:先平均后对比
-5.7 Multi-factor Index System
--5.7.1 CPI Past and Present CPI 前世今生
-5.8 Economic Index in Reality
--5.8.1 Stock Price Index: Big Family 股票价格指数:大家庭
-5.9 Unit 5 test 第五单元测试题
-Sampling and sampling distribution
-6.1The binomial distribution
--6.1.1 Sampling survey: definition and several groups of concepts 抽样调查:定义与几组概念
-6.2The geometric distribution
--6.2.1 Probability sampling: common organizational forms 概率抽样:常用组织形式
-6.3The t-distribution
--6.3.1 Non-probability sampling: commonly used sampling methods 非概率抽样:常用抽取方法
-6.4The normal distribution
--6.4.1 Common probability distributions: basic characterization of random variables 常见概率分布:随机变量的基本刻画
-6.5Using the normal table
--6.5.1 Sampling distribution: the cornerstone of sampling inference theory 抽样分布:抽样推断理论的基石
-6.9 Unit 6 test 第六单元测试题
-7.1Properties of point estimates: bias and variability
--7.1.1 Point estimation: methods and applications 点估计:方法与应用
-7.2Logic of confidence intervals
--7.2.1 Estimation: Selection and Evaluation 估计量:选择与评价
-7.3Meaning of confidence level
--7.3.1 Interval estimation: basic principles (1) 区间估计:基本原理(一)
--7.3.2 Interval estimation: basic principles (2) 区间估计:基本原理(二)
-7.4Confidence interval for a population proportion
--7.4.1 Interval estimation of the mean: large sample case 均值的区间估计:大样本情形
--7.4.2 Interval estimation of the mean: small sample case 均值的区间估计:小样本情形
-7.5Confidence interval for a population mean
--7.5.1 Interval estimation of the mean: small sample case 区间估计:总体比例和方差
-7.6Finding sample size
--7.6.1 Determination of sample size: a prelude to sampling (1) 样本容量的确定:抽样的前奏(一)
--7.6.2 Determination of sample size: a prelude to sampling (2) 样本容量的确定:抽样的前奏(二)
-7.7 Unit 7 Test 第七单元测试题
-8.1Forming hypotheses
--8.1.1 Hypothesis testing: proposing hypotheses 假设检验:提出假设
-8.2Logic of hypothesis testing
--8.2.1 Hypothesis testing: basic ideas 假设检验:基本思想
-8.3Type I and Type II errors
--8.3.1 Hypothesis testing: basic steps 假设检验:基本步骤
-8.4Test statistics and p-values 、Two-sided tests
--8.4.1 Example analysis: single population mean test 例题解析:单个总体均值检验
-8.5Hypothesis test for a population mean
--8.5.1 Analysis of examples of individual population proportion and variance test 例题分析 单个总体比例及方差检验
-8.6Hypothesis test for a population proportion
--8.6.1 P value: another test criterion P值:另一个检验准则
-8.7 Unit 8 test 第八单元测试题
-Correlation and regression analysis
-9.1Correlative relations
--9.1.1 Correlation analysis: exploring the connection of things 相关分析:初探事物联系
--9.1.2 Correlation coefficient: quantify the degree of correlation 相关系数:量化相关程度
-9.2The description of regression equation
--9.2.1 Regression Analysis: Application at a Glance 回归分析:应用一瞥
-9.3Fit the regression equation
--9.3.1 Regression analysis: equation establishment 回归分析:方程建立
-9.4Correlative relations of determination
--9.4.1 Regression analysis: basic ideas
--9.4.2 Regression analysis: coefficient estimation 回归分析:系数估计
-9.5The application of regression equation