1.4.1 Basic research methods: statistical tools 基本研究方法：统计的利器在线视频

我们讲的就是它的研究方法
Today we are going to discuss the research methods in statistics

统计学的研究方法
There are a few[many] commonly used

它有多个
research methods in statistics

有的人讲三个
Some say there are three

有的人讲四个
while some say four

但这几个是相同的
But some of them are similar

第一 大量观察法
The first research method we are going to discuss

是第一个研究方法
is mass observation

大量观察法就是苏斯密尔希斯
Mass observation is invented by Sussmilch

有些人说不是他发明的
Some people have doubts on the inventor

有些人说是他发明的
while some claim it true

苏斯密尔希斯认为 要发现一个
Sussmilch believed mass observation

复杂现象的规律
is a required technique

就要进行大量的观察
to analyze the laws of complicated phenomena

比如说 婴儿出生的性别（比）
such as the sex (ratio) of new-born babies

你家生的是女儿
A baby girl is born in this family

他家生的是儿子
A baby boy is born in that family

好像没有规律
There seems to be no relevance

他说 如果你有足够地去观察
But Sussmilch said, if you observe in sufficient number

婴儿出生的情况
the situation of births

比如时间拉长 范围放宽
such as in prolonged time and expanded scope

不要从一个家庭或者一个（条）街道
not just in a family or a community

你放宽到整个城市或者这个地区
but in the whole city or a larger region

时间拉长到一个月 一年
in a month or a year

你就会发现
you would find

婴儿出生（性别比） 它是有规律的
there was a law in the (sex ratio) of babies

它的性别（比） 就是格朗特发现的
This sex (ratio) was one of the discoveries of Graunt

但是他一开始认为 100个小孩里面
although his original belief that among 100 babies

有52个是男的 48个是女的
there were 52 boys and 48 girls

当然 跟现在的婴儿（出生）性别（比）呢
was hardly close to the sex (ratio) of

还是有差距的
(new-born) babies at present

但是 那时候是17世纪
But given the fact he lived in the 17th century

能发现这个现象
it was a remarkable discovery

是非常不容易的
for the him to make

（苏斯密尔希斯提出）只有通过
(Sussmilch proposed that) only by

大量观察才能发现这些规律
mass observation could the law be revealed

就像我们去研究犯罪率一样
For example, in our study of criminal rates

今天他是人身攻击犯罪
this might be the case of personal attack

明天是财务犯罪
and that might be economic crime

好像没有规律
There seems to be no relevance

按阿道夫・凯特勒的方法
But according to Adolphe Quetelet

你通过大量的 长时间的观察
if you spend abundant time doing massive observation

你就能发现 气候跟这个是有关的
you will find that there is a link between crimes and climate

也就是说
That is to say

在春天 我们很容易发生的案件
in spring, most of the cases are

是财务犯罪
economic crimes

在夏天 很容易发生的案件
while in summer, most of the cases are

是人身攻击犯罪
personal attacks

这种规律只有通过大量观察
Such a law can only be discovered

才能发现
by mass observation

所以大量观察法是
Therefore, mass observation

统计分析方法的一种基本分析方法
is one of the basic analysis methods in statistics

第二种分析方法 就是统计指标法
The second analysis method is the method of statistical indicator

因为一个总体
as the population total

它非常复杂
is usually complicated

等下后面我们会讲到
We will come to discuss the term

什么叫总体
population total shortly.

它有不同的侧面
It presents various laterals

不同的层次
in many layers

你如何反映这个总体
How do we reflect this population

就像比如 我们国家的经济
The national economy, for example

就是一个总体
is a population total

这个总体 你（要）反映它的情况
How do we reflect its general

怎么办
status

那我们就要用统计指标
We need to employ statistical indicators

从它的生产 使用 分配
from manufacture, utilization and distribution

从出口到进口
from import to export

从货币的流放到物价的变动
from currency in exile to changes in price

从就业到失业等等
from employment to unemployment

我们都要用统计指标
These are all statistical indicators

来全面反映它
to reflect the overall situation

这种方法叫统计指标法
This is referred to as the method of statistical indicator

统计指标（法） 它就要确定
The (method of) statistical indicator is to

统计指标的内涵
define the connotation, denotation

外延 计算方法等等
and computational methods in statistical indicators

第三个方法呢
The third method is

就是统计分组法
statistical grouping

统计分组法贯穿于统计的各个方面
Statistical grouping is used in almost every way in statistics

也贯穿统计科学里面
and in the individual methods

各个具体的方法
of statistical science

统计分组 它是把
Statistical grouping is the process

杂乱无章的一个（组）数据
to arrange random (group) data

进行系统化
in a systematic

条理化的一个工作过程
and organized order

它能够反映出总体的内部结构
It can reflect the inner structure

和一般的发展水平和规律
and the development and laws in the population

第四个分析方法
The fourth method of analysis in statistics

统计里面跟别的不同
unlike other disciplines

就是归纳推理法
is inductive reasoning

它通过了解部分（单位的）信息
By understanding part (unit) information

来推导出总体的全部（单位的）信息
it helps to infer the overall total (unit) information

大家知道
As we know

统计研究的总体非常复杂
the population of statistical research is very complicated

它这里的总体单位
The population in statistics is measured in a unit of

少则一两个亿
ranging from at least 100 or 200 million

多则几千个亿
to hundreds of billion

它这么多单位
It is impossible to conduct a survey

你不可能进行全面调查
covering every one of these units

你只有通过部分（单位的）数据的搜集
We can only collect part (unit) data

当然 有些现象你还不能够
And, of course, some phenomena simply cannot

全面调查
accept a complete survey

那你只能用部分（单位的）数据
so we are forced to use part (unit) data

进行推导出全部总体（单位的信息）
to infer the overall population (unit information)

这个呢 就是归纳推理
That is how inductive reasoning is used as

这也是统计的基本分析方法
a basic analytical method in statistics

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