1.3.1 History of Statistics: Learn from others 统计学科史：博采众长在线视频

下面我们讲统计科学的发展情况
Today we will focus on the historical development of statistics

统计科学的发展情况
The historical development of statistics

它可以分几个阶段
has undergone several phrases.

我们说从开始的政治算术学（派）
It started from the birth of school of political arithmetic

和国势学派的产生
and school of state status

到近代的数理统计学（派）的产生
to the formation of modern (school of) mathematical statistics

和现代的社会统计学等等
and modern social statistics

它是统一的脉络
These schools have the same origin

只是时间和对象不同
but deal with different objectives in different times

首先我们看
First, let us come to learn

统计科学先产生的两个学派
the first two schools in statistics

就是17世纪的政治算术学派
That is, school of political arithmetic

和国势学派
and school of state status born in the 17th century

政治算术学派是英国产生的
School of political arithmetic originated in Britain

它的代表人物是英国的
Its presentative figures are

威廉·配第和格朗特
William Petty and Graunt

再加上对这个学派有影响的
as well as Sussmilch from Prussia

普鲁士的苏斯密尔希斯
whose theory has influenced the school

威廉·配第呢 他写了一本书
William Petty is the author of the book

这本书的名字就叫《政治算术》
entitled Political Arithmetick

写这本书的目的在于为
His desire of writing the book was to

英国国王和百姓打气
encourage the king and the common British

打什么气呢
For what

就是整个英国只要制定
Because he believed that if Britain could adopt

正确的国策 发展方向
the correct state policy and development strategy

就能够在殖民地争夺方面
it could become a great imperial power

成为日不落帝国
and get an upper hand in seizing more colonies

而当时英国在殖民地方面
The strongest enemies the British faced in colonial competition

面临的挑战是法国和荷兰
were France and Holland

所以 他在《政治算术》
Therefore, in his book Political Arithmetick

这本书里面对英国 法国 荷兰
William Petty compared Britain

进行对比
with France and Holland

这本书不厚 就几章
The book was short, with only a few chapters

他从地理 人口 军事 收入
After analyzing national geography, population, military, and revenues

进行分析 得出结论
he drew a conclusion that

英国完全有能力击败法国和荷兰
Britain was well positioned to beat France and Holland

成为殖民地方面的霸主
to become a dominant colonial power

这本书呢
At the beginning

在它的开头 他写了
of his book, he wrote

他说我要一改别人写书的方法
I would like to reform the way in book writing

不用形容词的比较级 最高级
by lessening the use of the comparative or superlative form on an adjective

我要用数字 度量 尺寸等等
I am going to use terms of number, weight or measure

来说明问题
to elucidate

所以他在这本书里面都是用
Therefore, in his book, Petty used

数字 采取对比的方法来体现
statistics by introducing the method of comparing

说明英国的优势
to describe the strength of Britain

在这本书里面
In this book

他也算了一下英国的
he also calculated the GDP

国民收入有多少
of Britain

所以说
In conclusion

他说 只要我们制定好
he wrote, if we could adopt

相应的 正确的国策
the appropriate and correct national policy

完全能打败法国和荷兰
we would gain sufficient edge to beat France and Holland

成为霸主
to become a dominant power

这个学派的第二个人物
Another important figure in this school

那就是格朗特
is Graunt

格朗特是一个军人出身
Graunt was a former solider

少校退伍以后
After retiring from the army as a major

他成为一个非常有名的商人
he became a very famous businessman

当时整个欧洲在流行传染病
There was an epidemic spreading around Europe

死亡人数比较多
causing many deaths

格朗特呢
Graunt

他就研究死这个问题
became interested in the issue of mortality

死有没有规律 他研究这个
He suspected if there is any law of nature in mortality

他利用了英国教会
He analyzed the data from

资料进行分析
the Church of England

写了一本书叫
and wrote a book called

《关于死亡表的自然观察和政治观察》
Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality

好像名字是这个
if I remember correctly

在这里面
In this book

他找出了死亡率有差别
he observed there was a difference in death rate

男的和女的有差别
between men and women

城市和农村有差别
urban and rural areas

传染病和慢性病不同
infectious diseases and chronic diseases

所以 他说
And he reached a conclusion that

只要一个国家控制了传染病
if a state could control infectious diseases

那每年慢性病死多少人
it would be possible to calculate

是能够算出来的
deaths caused by chronic diseases

他第一个 制作了生命表
He was the first to drew a mortality table

也就是死亡率表
namely a death rate record

为现代的人寿保险的发展和研究
which laid the foundation for the research and development

奠定了基础 做出过突出贡献
of modern life insurance. A great achievement

他还有一个贡献
Another accomplishment he made

就是对生的方面
involves fertility

发现了出生的小孩的
He discovered a law of

婴儿性比例
sex ratio

它也有个规律
among newly born infants

这两个人是英国人
Both writers we just mentioned were British

还有一个人士苏斯密尔希斯
There is another prominent figure, Sussmilch

他是普鲁土人
a Prussian

他在大学里面
His first major in college

他的第一专业学神学
is Theology

第二专业学东方语言
and his second major is Oriental Languages

他在大学毕业以后
After graduating from college

就到普鲁土军队里面当牧师
he served as a priest in Prussian army

他写了一本书叫《上帝秩序》
He wrote a book entitled The Divine Order

这本书来论证一些
In this book he expounded and proved

比如说一夫一妻等等一些关系
relations such as monogamy

这些为什么要这样
Why would we follow monogamy

这是上帝安排的
It was the order of God

他认为是上帝安排的
Yes, he thought it was arranged by God

这三个人作为这个学派的代表人物
These three men are representatives of school of political arithmetic

这个学派的特点
This school

就是用数字说话
recommends listing numbers in arguments

因为你的数字
They hold that numbers

说明问题的说服力强
are more persuasive in making a point

比如我们国家现在 政府工作报告
For example, both the government report

单位的工作总结等等
and work summary in our country

都是用数字说话
use numbers to prove a point

所以这个学派呢
Therefore, this school

是作为我们统计学
is seen as the first school

特别是经济统计学的
in the history of statistics

我们产生的第一个学派
especially economic statistics

也是我们（经济统计学）的正宗学派
It is also an orthodox school in statistics (economic statistics)

那第二个学派呢
And the second school

就是国势学派
is school of state status

国势学（派）是（在）德国（产生）的
The (school of) state status was (born) in Germany

代表人物是康令和阿哼华尔
Its representatives are Conring and Achenwall

康令呢 他也挺有名的
Conring was quite famous

他在大学里面开一门课
for teaching a course in college

叫国势学
State Status

这门课没人开
He was the only professor teaching this course

他为什么开这门课呢
Why did he start this course

他有个比喻
Here is his explanation

说一个人生病
Suppose a person was sick

去找医生看病
and went to see a doctor

找的这个医生是个什么医生呢
but the doctor was unqualified

既不懂人体结构
because he knew neither the body structure

也不懂血液循环
nor the blood circulation

也不懂脉络走向
neither arteries and veins

也不懂药理药效
nor the pharmacology

你找他看病
It would be ridiculous and hilarious

让他给你动手术
to see a doctor like this

你觉得可怕又可笑
or to have him perform surgery on you

这种情况在现实生活里面也有
But this was happening in real life

他说我们老百姓
According to Conring

接受当官的治理和管理
officials ruled and managed the country

这些所谓的从政人员
But these officials

就是肉食者
like predators

他不懂一个国家的政体
knew nothing about government regime

经济 军事 文化 风俗习惯
economy, military, culture or customs

他来管理我们
These officials

就像那个医生一样的
like the doctor mentioned earlier

什么也不懂
were ignorant

既可笑又可怕
ridiculous and horrible

所以要成为一个合格的行政管理人员
If these officials wanted to become qualified administrators

就要懂得他刚才讲的那些内容
they must receive training of what mentioned above

所以他在大学里面开了一门课
So, Conring decided to teach the course

叫国势学
called State Status in college

因为这门课呢
This course

开出来以后有好多学生学
gained great popularity among students

所以呢
So,

好多大学就开了这门课
many other universities followed suit

那名称就不同
These universities named the course in various titles

有国势学 有记述学等等
such as state status and descriptive accounting etc.

为了统一这个名字
A professor in University of Goettingen

哥廷根大学有个教授叫阿亨华尔
Achenwall, decided to give the course a unified designation

他就认为我们这个名称
He thought the name of the course

应该统一起来
should be unified

因为我们这门学科
Since this was a course

就是记述一个国家的状态
that described the state status

比如说国家的政体 经济
including its government regime, economy

军事 文化 风俗习惯 教育
military, culture, customs and education

这都是一个状态
Since these were all expressions of status

那就用拉丁词stat这个词根
the Latin word root “stat” could be used

记述状态 就使用statistik这个词
The word “statistik” is coined to express “describing the status”

作为我们这个学科的名字
and as the name of this discipline

statistik就是现在讲的统计学
Statistik is what we call statistics today

这个学派贡献了这个名字
That is how the discipline was named

这个学派还有一个特点
The school of state status has another characteristic

它是用总体来说明问题
It tends to make a point by looking at the overall situation

比如说这个学派
For example, one of the famous writings

非常有名的代表作叫《万国论》
of this school is called Theory of Nations

《万国论》里面他描述
The book described

各个国家的 各个方面的情况
the state status of many nations

比如讲西班牙人
Spain, for example

他就几句话
He described the nation with a few remarks

有德者甚少
saying it was scarcely virtuous

适度者甚少
hardly proportional physically

恶外人 外人亦恶之
xenophobia, and a nuisance to others too

他说西班牙人呢
In other words, according to the writing

有道德的人相对比较少
few Spanish were moral

长得匀称的人也比较少
and few Spanish were physically proportional

比较排外
They were exclusive

外国人也讨厌西班牙人
and loathed by other nations

他是从总体来讲
These statements are made from a general perspective

当然这个学派的特点
This school

跟我们前面（讲）的政治算术学派（特点）相比呢
if we compare it with the school of political arithmetic

好像不同
seems to display a different characteristic

它是用文字说明问题
It prefers to make analysis through textual description

但这个学派的贡献也非常大
But its contribution to statistics should not be overlooked

一是有了统计学的名称
It created the unified name of statistics

二是从总体来分析问题
and it introduced the method to analyze from an overall perspective

这是开始的俩个学派
These are the two earliest schools

标志着统计学的产生
They mark the birth of statistics

在这里面
Among them

政治算术学派的
William Perry

威廉·配第的贡献非常大
from school of political arithmetic made a significant contribution

马克思曾经对他的评价是
Marx evaluated his work

威廉·配第是政治经济学之父
and referred William Perry as the father of political economy

在某种程度上来说
In some way

他是统计学的创始人
he is also the founder of statistics

好 下面我们讲近代统计学的创始人
Next, we are going to introduce the founder of modern statistics

近代统计学的创始人是
The founder of modern statistics

比利时的阿道夫·凯特勒
is Adolphe Quetelet from Belgium

阿道夫·凯特勒 他是数学家
Adolphe Quetelet is a mathematician

天文学家 统计学家
astronomer, statistician

国际统计学会终身主席
the lifelong president of International Statistical Institute

他这一辈子的贡献非常大
He made a wide range of contributions to many disciplines

不仅仅是在数学上和天文学上
He achieved great accomplishments

他有非常卓越的贡献
not only in mathematics and astronomy

在统计学中
but also

也有非常大的贡献
in statistics

他开创了数理统计（学派）
He founded Mathematical Statistics (School)

他并且是国际统计学会的终身主席
He was the lifelong president of International Statistical Institute

他是著作等身 他写了好多书
As a proliferate writer, he has composed many books

在统计学里面
For statistics

他有一本代表作
he wrote a masterpiece

叫《社会物理学》
called Social Physics

他认为自然现象的那些变动
He claimed that there was a law behind

都是有规律可循的
the variations in natural phenomena

他都能用精确的模型
He was able to calculate celestial movements of the planets

计算天体的 星球的运行轨迹
by building an accurate model

他认为
He believed

社会中的现象也同样有这些规律
there was also an inherent law in social phenomena

他在巴黎留学的时候
When he studied in Paris

他就接触到了
he became acquainted with

格朗特的那个学派
the school of political arithmetic

他比较喜欢那个学派的研究方法
He was attracted to the research approach of that school

格朗特研究死亡是有规律的
Graunt’s studies showed there was a law in mortality

他也认为 死亡有规律
And he agreed

所以他觉得
Further more, he believed

自杀 道德 犯罪等等
there was a law

都是有规律的
behind social crimes, suicidal, and moral issues as well

他在巴黎留学的时候
When he was studying in Paris

他就预测过巴黎的自杀情况
he successfully predicted the suicides in Paris

他在《道德统计》那本书里面
In his writing of Moral Statistics

曾经分析了
he analyzed

影响犯罪的各个因素
various elements that affected crimes

比如说性别 职业 地域 地区
for example, the different crime rates

气候 文化程度各影响
under the influence of sex, vocation, region, area

犯罪率是多少
climate and culture

他得出了一些非常有趣的结论
He reached several interesting conclusions

总之 阿道夫·凯特勒 他是把
In a word, Adolphe Quetelet borrowed

研究自然现象的方法来研究社会现象
research approaches from natural science to study social phenomena

使用归纳推理的方法来研究
He introduced inductive reasoning

不像以前用演绎推理
rather than deductive reasoning, into his studies

因为归纳推理和演绎推理不同
Inductive reasoning differs from deductive reasoning

演绎推理得出的结论完全正确的
The conclusion drawn from deductive reasoning is completely right

但是没有创造新的知识
but generates no fresh ideas

归纳推理能够创造新的知识
Inductive reasoning can ignite new ideas

这是数理统计学派
And this is mathematical statistics

当然数理统计学派
Mathematical statistics

作为近代统计学
as part of modern statistics

在欧美流行比较广
is very popular in Europe and America

欧美那些国家
In European countries and America

欧洲 美国在大学里的统计
the universities frequently use

主要是数理统计
mathematical statistics

像在医学统计 物理统计 生物统计
as in medical statistics, physical statistics, and biostatistics

里面主要使用的就是数理统计
there is often application of mathematical statistics

当然 后面那个社会统计 经济统计
Of course, social statistics and economic statistics

那是后面一些发展
are also the development afterwards

像德国 日本都有不错的表现
It has remarkable influence in Germany and Japan

和我们国家在这方面的研究
Statistical research in China

也取得了很多的成绩
has also achieved great success

这是它的发展史
This is the development history of statistics