4.1.1 Time series (1): The past, present and future of the indicator 时间序列 (一) ：指标的过去现在未来在线视频

二妞 你能不能安静一点啊
My little sister, could you please keep it down?

我在复习英语视听说
I am focusing on reviewing English speaking and listening.

我也在练习钢琴啊
But I am practicing the piano.

妈妈 我马上要进入
Mom, I am about to

专业课集中学习阶段
attend a specialized course intensive training,

还要准备英语等级考试
while preparing for my English test.

但我看书的时候
But when I need to focus on my study

二妞老是会影响到我
little sister always bothers me.

我需要一个独立的房间
I need a room of my own.

独立的房间
A separate room.

也是 你们都长这么大了
I understand. You have grown up,

是该有一个独立的房间了
and you both need a separate room.

等你爸下班回来
After your dad comes back from work

妈妈就和他商量
I will talk to him.

看看是不是去换个大点的房子
Maybe we need to move into a bigger apartment.

我先和二妞沟通沟通
Let me talk to your little sister first.

妞妞爸
Honey,

你看 大妞和二妞长大了
you see, our two daughters have grown up

都需要有独立的房间
and they need to have separate rooms.

咱们家是不是去换一个大房子
Shall we move to a larger apartment?

是啊 大妞 二妞长大了
Right, they have grown up.

是该考虑这个问题了
It is time to think about this.

今年不买房就得再等30年
Sometimes it is now or never.

随着城市家庭户数的成倍增加
As the number of urban households increases exponentially,

将带来大量的住房需求
there is a growing demand for housing.

未来房地产仍将是支柱
Real estate will continue to be a pillar industry,

仍有很大的发展机会
with great potential for development.

未来一段时间内
In an extended period,

房价还将上涨
housing price will keep rising.

2015不买房那就再等30年
2015 has become a good opportunity, which you should not miss.

现在是必须要换房了吗
Is it a good time for us to move to a bigger apartment?

同学们 大家好
Hello, everyone.

欢迎回到轻松学统计的课堂
Welcome to Easy Way to Learn Statistics.

今天我们要讲的内容是
Today we are going to learn

第四章 时间数列分析
Chapter Four, Time Series Analysis

那随着大妞二妞的成长
As the two girls grow up,

这个家庭的住房环境
the living space of this family

越来越紧张了
becomes increasingly crowded.

那爸爸妈妈就在讨论
Therefore, their parents are discussing

是否是应该要购买新的住房了呢
whether they should purchase and move into a bigger apartment?

什么时候是一个比较好的时期
When is the good time for them to do so?

在购买住房
There is an intense debate

那爸爸妈妈之间
between their parents

也展开了激烈的一个讨论
about buying a new apartment.

与此同时
Meanwhile,

2015年11月30号这个
In the program, Professor Lang’s Comments on Finance

《财经郎眼》这个节目中
on November 30th, 2015,

郎咸平教授也就这个买房时机
Professor Lang Xianping also shared

这样一个论点
his deep insight with his audience

展开了深入的解读
about when is the best time for house purchasing.

So today I'm going to give you an interpretation

How to understand China's real estate market correctly

First of all, let's talk about "ice"

That's the inventory problem

So please look at this picture

The proportion of inventory that belongs to sales

You see, the whole line goes up

Do you know how serious it is

Please see

Take January to October this year as an example

Inventory as a percentage of sales

set a peak in history

72%

That's why it started

The so-called serious concern of our country's leaders

You, friends on site

You are willing to pay for clothes

It's all called normalized clothes

They are not affected by inventory

You see how earth shaking this is

an economic revolution

Supply and demand do not determine the price at all

So the same reason can be deduced

What is the double sky of ice and fire

Exactly the same as clothes

You have to make real estate two

So much inventory

will encounter normalized real estate prices

What is normalized real estate

I'll take a second-hand house as an example

Just live friends and audience friends

You are willing to spend money to buy a second-hand house

Just like you are willing to pay for clothes

It is a normalized real estate

It is not affected by inventory

And for such second-hand houses,

The price rises and the demand basically drops

Prices have fallen and demand has basically risen

This is called normal

What if the price rises

This is the heat

Understand what I mean

So that's all

Professor Lang needs to show you the data

Please see this

This is a first-tier city, a second-tier city, a third-tier city

From January 1 to the end of October last year

This price trend

Please pay attention

First tier city blue

See

Skyrocketing

Second tier city yellow

Up and down

Now you see that

Up

Now a bit down in October

Third tier cities green

Up a little down

Look again

Trading volume

It was on January 1st last year

Trading volume by the end of October

Total trading volume

It's the lowest in February this year

After that

It's all going up

Remember price and quantity

It's all second-hand housing transactions

All you have to do is pay for a second-hand house

It all is called the normalized second-hand house

It is not affected by inventory

So what's the result

Basically, I found that the price of first tier cities is rising

Second and third line is not necessarily

But the trading volume is going up

刚刚我们看到视频中
In the video clip we just watched,

视频对这个中国房地产市场的
there is an in-depth discussion

冰火两重天现象
about a contrasting phenomenon

进行了深入的讨论
in the national real-estate market.

那我们说
So, we are saying,

目前在中国的这个
at present, in the real-estate marketplace in China,

房地产这个库存量非常之大
the inventories are quite high.

这就是我们说的这个冰的一个方面
In other words, the supply greatly exceeds the demand.

而在这个北上广一线城市
On the other hand, however, in first-tire cities, like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou,

房子这个销售非常之火爆
property sales are skyrocketing.

这又是火的一个现象
The market is booming.

所以这就是我们视频中
This contrasting phenomenon

所提到的冰火两重天
has been observed and commented in the video.

那我们发现
We have discovered that

这个郎咸平教授使用了非常多的
Professor Lang Xianping has supported his argument

这个时间数列来解读
on this contrasting phenomenon

这个冰火两重天的现象
with time series.

首先我们来看看
First of all, let us take a closer look

这个冰的这个方面
at the depressed market sector.

如图所示 我们发现
As shown in the graph, we find

郎咸平教授选择了
Professor Lang Xianping has listed

这个2010年到2015年
the time series of

我国这个房地产这个库存
national real-estate inventory-sales ratio

销售比的时间数列
from 2010 to 2015.

那我们发现
The data shows

2010年这个库存销售比是36.78%
the inventory-sales ratio in 2010 is 36.78%.

而从这个2010年开始
But since 2010,

它直接是上升非常迅速
this number has undergone a rapid rise,

到了这个2015年的72.32%
to 72.32% in 2015.

这体现了一个非常严重的这个库存量
This surge discloses a severe overstock,

非常大的一个情况
excessive inventories.

这也是目前政府比较关注的这个
This issue has also raised concerns of the government,

如何来消化这个房地产库存积压比
who is looking for solutions to reduce real-estate inventory.

按照这个2015年
If real-estate sales

房地产这个销量
maintain the speed

133亿平方米这样一个速度来讲的话
of 13.3 billion square meters in 2015,

目前我们国家的这个
it will take nearly 10 years

房地产的这个存量的话
to clear the current amount

大概需要10年时间
of real-estate inventory

才能够消化掉
in our country.

而在解读这个房地产这个火爆
When it comes to the flourishing sector

这一个方面的话
in real-estate market,

郎咸平教授提出了一个常态化地产
Professor Lang Xianping puts forward a concept

这样一个概念
of normalized real estate.

而常态化地产
Normalized real estate

就类似于我们说
is similar to

市场经济的常态化商品
normalized goods in market economy.

常态化商品 它这个正常表现是什么呢
How do normalized goods behave?

随着价格的增长的话
Their sales increase

销量在上升
along with price rises.

价格下降的话 销量在下降
And their sales drop along with price declines.

而对于常态化地产来说的话
In a normalized real-estate market,

如果是价格的上升
when the price rises

销量上升的话
sales follow the trend,

那我们说 这就是火爆的现象
and create, what we call, a booming market.

而我们看到另外一幅图上
And another graph we see

它也展示了我们说这个
also presents what we call

我们国家一线城市 二线城市
the sales status

2014年1月到2015年9月
of first-tier and second-tier cities in our country

房地产市场 销售市场的
from January 2014 to September 2015

这个销售的一个状况
on real-estate market.

那我们发现非常明显的是
We have noticed something conspicuous

这个一线城市 二线城市
that real-estate sales in first-tier and second-tier cities

它这个火爆程度
are much higher

要大大高于这个三线城市
than sales in third-tier cities.

那在整个这个视频的解读过程中
We have observed considerable use

我们发现用了非常多的
of time series as indicators

这个时间数列的这样一个指标
in the interpretation presented in the video.

那我们看到
In what way

它跟这个描述统计
does it differ from

这些基本概念有什么区别呢
the basic concepts in descriptive statistics?

就是我们今天这堂课
This is what we will focus on

要重点关注的内容
in today’s lecture.

好 现在我们进入第一讲
Ok, now let us move into the first part,

时间数列概述
a general introduction of time series.

首先我们来看看
First let us get to know

这个时间数列的定义
the definition of time series.

我们说同一经济指标数值
We know when similar economic indicator values

按照时间顺序排列所形成的数列
are sequenced in chronological order to form a series,

就是我们说的这个时间数列
that series is what we call time series.

那它有非常重要的两个部分构成
Time series consists of two main components.

第一个部分是时间指标
One is the time indicator

我们说时间按照先后顺序进行排列
in which time is arranged in a chronological order.

我们一般由字符t来进行表示
Generally, we use character t to indicate.

而另外一个重要部分
The other important component

就是我们提到的这个经济指标数值
is what we call economic indicator values

一般用字符y
indicated by character y

或者小写的a来进行表示
or lowercase a.

这个区别于描述统计中的
This is different from the regular indicators

这个一般的指标
in descriptive statistics.

那我们看到
As it shows

下方有一个图
in the figure below,

有非常多的这个
there are a great many

我国房地产相关指标的时间数列
time series of relevant indicators in national real estate market.

那我们这一取到什么呢
What time series have we extracted?

取了2010年到2015年
We extracted the period

这样一个时间长度的
from 2010 to 2015

以下四个方面这个经济指标
of the following four types of economic indicators describing

第一个是房地产库存销售比
real-estate inventory-sales ratio

第二个是房地产住宅投资
residential investment

第三个指标是年末人口数
total population at the year end

第四个指标是人均房地产住宅投资额
and residential investment per capita.

那有些同学可能要讲了
Some of you may wonder

在这一章中提出的时间数列
how the time series proposed in this chapter

它究竟与变量数列有什么样一个区别呢
differs from variable series.

那我们现在看看
Now let us make a comparison between the two.

它们主要有三个方面的区别
There are mainly three differences.

第一个内容区别是
The first one is content difference.

这个时间状况是不同的
The time states are different.

那我们看到 现在有两个表
Let us check out the two tables here.

左方这个表是
The table on the left

我国房地产库存销售比的一览表
is a data sheet of national real-estate inventory-sales ratio.

还是由这个
The changes

2010年到2015年库存销售比的
of inventory-sales ratio from 2010 to 2015

一个变化情况
displayed in the table

那么发现它是一个非常快速的一个
indicates that the ratio is undergoing

增长的过程
a rapid growth.

而右方这个图
But the table on the right

是某班2012年年龄分布的一个状况
is a list recording the age distribution of some class in 2012.

它们两个表格
The two tables

在这个时间状况上是不同的
show different time states.

左方的表 我们发现它非常明显
We can say, from the table on the left,

有一个显著的
a conspicuous

这个年份时间的一个变化状况
changing state in the time of the year.

而右方这个某班2012年这个年龄分布
But the right table listing the age distribution of some class in 2012

我们说一般
as assumed,

我们在统计这个年龄分布的时候
is fixated at a certain age

应该是固定在一个年龄段上的
when the data is being collected.

而第二个不同
The second difference

是这个变量性质是不一样的
lies in variable properties.

左方这个时间数列的话
By observing the time series in the left table

我们发现
we have found that

主要针对是总体的经济指标的
they are mainly targeted at the changing process

一个变化状况
of the overall economic indicators.

而右方这个变量数列的话
While the variable series in the right table

主要针对的是总体分完组以后
mainly focus on the changes of

它的这个频数
frequency

如何发生变化的一个情况
after population grouping.

而第三个区别是总体是否分组
The third difference is whether there is population classification.

我们关注到
We have noticed

左方这个时间数列的表格中
time series in the left table

一般而言
are generally

都是总体总量的一个经济指标的变化
changes of economic indicators of the population total.

所以总体一般是没有进行分组的
Therefore, there is no classification of the population total.

而右方的变量数列主要是关注到
But the variable series in the right table are mostly concerned about

对于一个总体
how to divide the population

使用某些指标来进行分组
by using some the indicators for grouping.

因此对于变量数列而言
Therefore, in variable series

总体一般是要进行分组的
there is often classification of the population total.

而第四个方面我们来看看
And in the fourth part we will discuss

我们时间数列
what functions

它究竟有什么样一些作用
time series have.

那关注到刚刚这张
Pay attention to the

我国房地产相关指标的
time series of relevant indicators

这个时间数列中 我们发现
in national real estate. We have observed

从这个时间的变化过程中
during the changing process in this time,

我们能看到
we can also see,

这个经济现象的一些
some changes in the previous history

历史状况的一些变化状况
of certain economic phenomenon.

那我们看到这里
What we have observed here

其实告诉我们
actually corresponds with

视频中也提到过
the changes of inventory-sales ratio

库存销售比的一个变化状况
mentioned in the video.

它其实非常重要
This plays a very important role

在这个房地产的分析过程中
in real-estate analysis.

另外一个就是揭示这个
The other function of time series is to disclose

房地产现象的一个变化规律
the varying pattern behind these real-estate phenomena.

那我们可以看到
We can see

这个人均房地产住宅投资额的
residential investment per capita

一个变化状况
has also changed,

也是能够告诉我们
Time series shows us

这样非常重要的信息的
important information like this.

然后随着这个对历史资料的分析
And it is followed by an analysis of historical data.

我们在这个历史资料分析的基础上
Based on our analysis of historical data

能够通过时间数列来进行外推预测
we can make extrapolative predictions through time series.

而第五个方面就是我们来看看
In the fifth part we are going to learn

这个时间数列它有哪些类型
the types of time series.

一般来讲 我们把时间数列
Usually, time series can be divided into

分成三个类型
3 types.

第一个类型是绝对数时间数列
The first type is absolute number time series.

第二个类型是相对数时间数列
The second is relative number time series.

第三个类型是平均数时间数列
The third is average number time series.

那回到刚刚这张
Let us look at the

我国房地产相关指标时间数列中
time series of relevant indicators in national real estate again.

我们观察到哪些是绝对数
We can tell which are absolute numbers

哪些是相对数 哪些是平均数呢
which are relative numbers and which are average numbers.

那我们看到
As we can see

在上面这四个指标中
in these four indicators just mentioned

非常明显的 我们能够发现
there is, apparently,

房地产住宅投资
residential investment,

它应该是一个绝对数时间数列
which should be an absolute number time series.

年末人口数
Total population at the year end

它也应该是一个绝对数时间数列
is also an absolute number time series.

而第一列
But the first series

我们看到房地产库存销售比
which shows real-estate inventory-sales ratio

以及人均房地产投资额的话
and per capita real estate investment,

它应该就是我们提到的
should be, what we mentioned before,

第二类和第三类
the second and the third type

相对数和平均数时间数列
of relative number and average number time series.