全球经济的变化和逆全球化的动因与现象在线视频

同学们好
Hello classmates

I am Zhang Honglie of the International Business School

我是国际工商学院的张洪烈老师
I am Zhang Honglie of the International Business School

接下来
Next

我们将探讨
we will discuss

全球化中一个重要的方面
an important aspect of globalization

全球经济的变化
changes in the global economy

特别是在贸易
especially structural changes in trade

投资
investment

跨国公司
multinational corporations

and global governance order

球治理秩序等
and global governance order

结构方面的改变
and global governance order

球贸易的格局
The pattern of global trade

正在发生巨大变化
is undergoing tremendous changes

发达国家的经济地位
the economic status of developed countries

正在相对减弱
is relatively weakened

发展中国家的经济地位
and the economic status of developing countries

不断上升
continues to rise

其中最重要的一个改变就是
One of the most important changes is

美国不再是
that the United States is no longer the

世界经济和世界贸易的主宰者

世界经济和世界贸易的主宰者
dominance of the world economy and world trade picture

20世纪80年代末
By the end of the 1980s

By the end of the 1980s

美国作为世界出口主导国的地位
the United States’ status as the world’s leading trading country

受到了威胁

受到了威胁
was threatened

在过去的30年中

在过去的30年中
Over the past 30 years

美国和日本 德国一样
U.S dominance in export

其统领出口市场的地位

其统领出口市场的地位
markets has waned as Japan and Germany

岌岌可危
markets has waned as Japan and Germany

一些发展中国家
Some developing countries

比如中国 印度 印度尼西亚

比如中国 印度 印度尼西亚
such as China India Indonesia

比如中国 印度 印度尼西亚

泰国 墨西哥和巴西
Thailand Mexico and Brazil

在世界产出中的份额将迅速扩大
rapidly expand their share of world output

而一些富裕的工业国
while some long-established developed countries

比如英国 德国 日本和美国
such as the United Kingdom

比如英国 德国 日本和美国
Germany Japan and the United States

其享有的份额将相应地减少
their share will be reduced accordingly

世界银行估测
The World Bank estimates

今日的发展中国家
that today’s developing nations

至2025年将占
will account for more than 60%

世界经济活动的60％以上
of world economic activity by 2025

而当今的富裕国家目前占
while today’s rich nations currently account for

世界经济活动的55％
55% of world economic activity

届时将只占38％左右
and will only account for about 38% by then

and will only account for about 38% by then

这虽然只是预测
Forecasts are not always correct

但对国际企业来讲
but for international companies

the impact of this geography economic change is clear

这种经济格局变化的影响是深远的
the impact of this geography economic change is clear

许多未来的商机
Many tomorrow’s business

将会在发展中国家找到
opportunities may be found

将会在发展中国家找到
in developing countries of the world

这也将直接影响未来对外投资的决策
which will also directly affect future foreign investment decisions

其中两个重要的趋势就是
Two important trends are that

商务合作国际化
the internationalization of business cooperation

让发达国家和发展中国家的
has greatly increased the amount

投资数额都大幅增加
in both developed and developing countries

及流入发展中国家的
and the increase in foreign direct investment flowing

对外直接投资增长尤为明显
into developing countries has been particularly obvious

其中最大的受益者就是中国
The biggest beneficiary is China

2004-2019年间
between 2004 and 2019

中国每年接受的投资额
China's annual investment volume

从600亿美元增长到

从600亿美元增长到
increased from 60 billion U.S. dollars to

1400亿美元
140 billion U.S. dollars

紧随其后的国家还包括
followed by Brazil Mexico and India

巴西 墨西哥和印度
followed by Brazil Mexico and India

同时
At the same time

全球化的浪潮也促使
the wave of globalization has also prompted

跨国公司大批的涌现
the emergence of a large number

跨国公司大批的涌现
of multinational companie

其中有两个重要的特点
Among them, there are two important characteristics

一是除了美国之外的跨国企业
First the number of multinational companies

一是除了美国之外的跨国企业
in other countries other than the United States

不断增加
is increasing

世界最大的100跨国企业
The world's 100 largest multinational companies

仍是发达国家居多
are still mostly developed countries

但如今更多发展中国家的企业
but now more Companies from developing countries

appear in the global market as important competitors

作为重要竞争者出现在全球市场
appear in the global market as important competitors

二是小型的跨国公司越来越多
Second there are more and more small multinational companies

Thanks to the development of the Internet

得益于互联网的发展
Thanks to the development of the Internet

降低了国际销售所面临的壁垒和成本
the barriers and costs faced by international sales have been reduced

许多中小型企业正在参与到
Many small and medium-sized enterprises are participating in

国际贸易与投资中来
international trade and investment

例如美国的一家
Consider Lubricating Systems Inc

制造机床润滑油的公司
From the United States

只雇佣了25个人
the company employs only 25 people

and has annual sales of 6.5 million US dollars

但是年销售额却达650万美元
and has annual sales of 6.5 million US dollars

此外
In addition

不断变化的世界秩序
the changing world order also

也对全球化的发展带来重要的影响
has an important impact on the development of globalization

例如苏联的解体
For example the Soviet Union receded into history

捷克斯洛伐克的分裂
Czechoslovakia divided itself into two states

东欧国家发生的剧变等
the drastic changes in Eastern European countries and

世界局势的动荡
other world turbulent situations

给世界经济带来了
have brought many factors

许多不安定的因素
of instability to the world economy

同时
At the same time

在中国和拉丁美洲正在发生的变革
the changes taking place in China and Latin America

也带了新的机遇
have also brought new opportunities

例如中国正在不断深化改革
For example China is constantly deepening reforms

促进贸易和投资的自由化便利化
and promoting the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment

对国际企业而言
specially for international companies

其地位是举足轻重的

其地位是举足轻重的
it meas a lot

一方面
On the other hand

中国代表一个巨大的的市场
China represents a huge market

中国代表一个巨大的的市场

另一方面
On the other hand

On the other hand

Chinese companies are also very powerful competitors

中国企业也是很有实力的完争对手
Chinese companies are also very powerful competitors

Chinese companies are also very powerful competitors

它们将从西方和发达国家的企业手中
and they will seize global market shares from companies in the West

夺取全球市场份额
and developed countries

夺取全球市场份额

因此
Therefore

在中国发生的变化
the changes that have taken place in China

给现存的国际企业
have created both opportunities and challenges

have created both opportunities and challenges

既创造了机会
have created both opportunities and challenges

也带来了挑战
for existing international companies

在拉丁美洲
In Latin America

市场改革也在生根发芽
market reforms are also taking place

无论是作为出口市场
Whether as an export market

还是直接投资市场
or a direct investment market

拉美都正在变得更具吸引力
Latin America is becoming more attractive

曾经
In the past

多数拉美国家
most Latin American countries

会限制外国公司的直接投资
would restrict direct investment by foreign companies

现在

现在
Today

政府把国有企业出售给私人投资者
the government sells state-owned enterprises to private investors

外国投资受到欢迎
foreign investment is welcomed

这些地区的经济规模不断扩大
and the economies of these regions continue to expand

巴西 墨西哥和智利
Brazil, Mexico and Chile

Brazil, Mexico and Chile

are all successful examples

都是非常成功的例子
are all successful examples

最后
Finally

我们来谈一谈关于全球化的争议
let's talk about the controversy about globalization

分析一下反对全球化的原因和现象

分析一下反对全球化的原因和现象
and discuss some of the reasons

分析一下反对全球化的原因和现象
and phenomena that oppose globalization

大多数有影响力的经济学家
Most influential economists

政治家和企业领袖
politicians and business leaders

都对全球化持肯定态度
hold a positive attitude towards globalization

They believe that

他们认为
They believe that

国际贸易和投资壁垒的减少
the reduction of international trade and investment barriers

将推动全球经济走向更大的繁荣
will push the global economy to greater prosperity

有充分的证据表明
There is ample evidence that

globalization can bring many benefits

全球化可以带来很多好处
globalization can bring many benefits

例如生产成本的降低
such as lowering production costs

刺激经济发展
stimulating economic development

増加消費者收入
increasing consumer income

以及创造就业机会
and creating job opportunities

尽管如此
Nevertheless

全球化还是遭到了人们的非议
globalization has been criticized by people

例如全球化也带来风险
For example, globalization also brings risks

在2008年美国爆发金融危机时
This was fully revealed when the financial

就完全显现出来
crisis broke out in the United States in 2008

金融危机不断扩散
The continuous spread of the financial crisis

使得世界经济陷入衰退之中
caused the world economy to fall into recession

caused the world economy to fall into recession

而英国脱欧 美国退群
Brexit and the withdrawal of the United States

而英国脱欧 美国退群
from global institutions and organizations

也是逆全球化的集中表现
are also concentrated manifestations of anti-globalization

然而
However

阻挡全球化并不会解决
blocking globalization will not solve

全球化过程所产生的问题
he problems arising from the process of globalization

政府和企业
Governments and enterprises

应该在寻求全球化带来的机会的同时
should seek the opportunities brought by globalization

通过适当的防范策略来降低风险
while reducing risks through appropriate preventive strategies

以上就是我们这一章所要学习的内容
The above is what we are going to learn in this chapter

我们探讨了全球化的含义
e discussed the meaning of globalization

熟悉了全球化的主要推动力
got familiar with the main driving forces of globalization

以及了解了全球经济的变化和争议
and understood the changes

以及了解了全球经济的变化和争议
and controversies of the globalized economy

好的
Okay

本次课程到此结束
this is the end of this class

感谢大家的观看
thank you for watching