外汇市场在线视频

同学们好
Hello everyone

我是云南财经大学
I’m Dr. Yin Hao from the

我是云南财经大学
International Business School

国际工商学院的尹豪老师
of Yunnan University of

国际工商学院的尹豪老师
Finance and Economics

这节课我们来学习国际商务课程
In this class we will learn

这节课我们来学习国际商务课程
about international finance

有关国际金融部分的内容
in the International Business

这部分的学习内容包括
This part includes three sections

外汇市场的基本理论
the basic theory of the

外汇市场的基本理论
foreign exchange market

国际货币体系的发展
the development of

国际货币体系的发展
the international monetary system

和全球资本市场的构成等三个方面
and the composition of the global capital market

国际商务活动中
With the cross-border

国际商务活动中
flow of goods

随着商品 服务的跨国流动
and services in international business activities

随着国际投资活动的开展
and the development of international investment activities

货币也跟随着在国际间流动兑换
currencies also flow and exchange internationally

将一个国家的货币
The foreign exchange market

转换成另一个国家的货币的市场
is a market for converting the currency

就是外汇市场
of one country into another

将一国货币换成他国货币的比率
Exchange rate is the rate at

将一国货币换成他国货币的比率
which one country’s currency

就是汇率
is converted into another

我们可以把汇率理解为
In other words the

我们可以把汇率理解为
exchange rate is the price paid

用一国货币购买他国货币的一个价格
in one country’s currency to

用一国货币购买他国货币的一个价格
purchase another country’s currency

汇率有两种标价方法
There are two pricing

汇率有两种标价方法
methods for exchange rates

一种是直接标价法
One is the direct quotation

是以一个整数单位的外国货币
which uses an integer

是以一个整数单位的外国货币
unit of foreign currency

为标准来计算
as the standard to

应付出多少数额本国货币的标价方法
calculate the amount of

应付出多少数额本国货币的标价方法
domestic currency to be paid

又叫应付标价法
which is also called

又叫应付标价法
the giving quotation

中国和大多数国家
China, like most other countries

一样都采用直接标价法
uses the direct quotation

比如
for example

人民币和美元的汇率等于6.83
CNY/USD=6.83

1美元可以兑换6.83元人民币
means that 1 U.S. dollar can be

1美元可以兑换6.83元人民币
exchanged for 6.83 yuan

在直接标价法下
Under direct quotation

汇率的上升意味着本币贬值
an increase in the exchange rate means a

汇率的上升意味着本币贬值
depreciation of the domestic currency

外币升值
and an appreciation

外币升值
of the foreign currency

另一种是间接标价法
The other pricing method for

另一种是间接标价法
exchange rate is the indirect quotation

是以一个整数单位的本国货币为基准
which is based on an integer

是以一个整数单位的本国货币为基准
unit of the domestic currency

将其折算为一定数额的外国货币的
and converts it into

将其折算为一定数额的外国货币的
a certain amount of

标价方法
foreign currency

又称应收标价法
It is also called the

又称应收标价法
Receiving Quotation

英镑 美元和欧元
The British pound

英镑 美元和欧元
the U.S. dollar and the Euro

是采用间接标价法典型例子
are typical examples of the indirect quotation

利用市场交换的原理
The foreign exchange market has

外汇市场实现了两个基本的功能
achieved two basic functions

外汇市场实现了两个基本的功能
through market exchange

即是
namely

货币转换功能和避免外汇风险的功能
currency conversion

货币转换功能和避免外汇风险的功能
and foreign exchange risk avoidance

先看看货币转换功能
Firstly, Let’s have a look at

先看看货币转换功能
the currency conversion function

举一个常识性的例子
For example

在中国生活和做生意要用人民币
people need to use RMB if

在中国生活和做生意要用人民币
they live and do business in China

比如一个英国游客
If a British tourist

到故宫旅游买门票和购买旅游纪念品
visit the Forbidden City

到故宫旅游买门票和购买旅游纪念品
should use RMB to

要用人民币
buy tickets and

不能用英镑或其他货币
souvenirs instead of using

不能用英镑或其他货币
British pounds or other currencies

当然英国游客手里的人民币
Of course the British tourists may

可能是用英镑换来的
convert their British pounds into RMB

这就涉及到货币转换
This will involve

这就涉及到货币转换
currency conversion

货币转换主要发生在以下四种情况
Currency conversion mainly occurs in

货币转换主要发生在以下四种情况
the following four situations

第一种是
The first is

企业从国际贸易或投资中
the foreign currency revenues

企业从国际贸易或投资中
that the company

获得的外币收入
obtains from international

获得的外币收入
trade or investment

这些收入要在本国使用
They need to be converted

这些收入要在本国使用
into domestic currency

就需要转换成本国货币
if these revenues are

就需要转换成本国货币
going to be used in the country

第二
The second is

是企业在购买外国公司的
that when a company is buying goods

产品或服务时
from a foreign company

外国公司要求用自己国家的货币
and if the foreign company requires payment in

外国公司要求用自己国家的货币
the currency of its own country

或者是第三国货币支付
or the currency of a third country

这时购买方就需要用本国货币
the buyer needs to exchange its own

换对方国家或者第三国的货币
currency for the currency of the other

换对方国家或者第三国的货币
country or the third country

第三种
The third is

是企业在全球货币市场的短期投资
the short-term investment of companies

是企业在全球货币市场的短期投资
in the global currency market

如果外国货币市场的
If the investment income of

如果外国货币市场的
the foreign currency market is

投资收益高于本国货币市场
higher than that of the

投资收益高于本国货币市场
domestic currency market

企业就会用本国货币换成外国货币
the company will exchange the domestic

企业就会用本国货币换成外国货币
currency for foreign currency

并投资于外国货币市场
and invest in the foreign

并投资于外国货币市场
currency market to

以取得更高的收益
obtain higher returns

这种情况下
In this case

投资收益
investment income

受外国货币市场的利率
is affected by the changes

受外国货币市场的利率
in the foreign currency

和汇率变化的共同影响
market interest rates

和汇率变化的共同影响
and exchange rates

第四是投机交易
The fourth is speculation

分为两种情况
There are two situations

第一种是外汇投机
The first is foreign

第一种是外汇投机
exchange speculation

是期望从外汇汇率波动中
which is a speculative foreign

是期望从外汇汇率波动中
exchange transaction that

获利的外汇投机交易
expects to profit from

获利的外汇投机交易
exchange rate fluctuations

比如
For example

企业用本国货币购买了外国货币
a company purchases foreign

企业用本国货币购买了外国货币
currency with domestic currency

当外国货币汇率上升时
and when the foreign

当外国货币汇率上升时
currency exchange rate rises

再把外国货币换回更多的本国货币
the foreign currency can be exchanged

再把外国货币换回更多的本国货币
back to more domestic currencies

这样通过两次货币转换就取得了收益
so that gains are made through the

这样通过两次货币转换就取得了收益
two times currency conversions

第二种是套息交易
The second is arbitrage

它是一种利用利率差
which is a speculative

它是一种利用利率差
transaction using

获取收益的投机交易
interest rate differentials

获取收益的投机交易
to obtain income

具体的操作
The specific operation is

是在低利率的国家借入当地货币
to borrow local currencies in

是在低利率的国家借入当地货币
low-interest-rate countries

将这些货币
and convert these currencies

转换成为高利率国家的货币进行投资
into currencies of high-interest-rate

转换成为高利率国家的货币进行投资
countries for investment

获利后再换回低利率国家的货币
After gaining a profit, it is exchanged back to the

获利后再换回低利率国家的货币
currency of the low interest rate country

并归还贷款
and return the loan

两个国家的利率差
The interest rate differential

两个国家的利率差
of the two countries

和汇率波动的影响
and the effect

和汇率波动的影响
of exchange rate fluctuations

就是套息交易的投机收益
are the speculative

就是套息交易的投机收益
income of the arbitrage

再看看规避外汇风险的功能
Now we will talk about the function

再看看规避外汇风险的功能
of avoiding foreign exchange risk

外汇风险是指汇率变动的不确定性
Foreign exchange risk refers to the loss caused by

所造成的损失
the uncertainty of exchange rate changes

规避外汇风险的市场操作
The market operation to

规避外汇风险的市场操作
avoid foreign exchange risk is

称为套期保值
called hedging

其基本原理就是将未来不确定的汇率
and its basic principle is to

其基本原理就是将未来不确定的汇率
convert the future uncertain

转变为当前确定的汇率
exchange rate into the currently

转变为当前确定的汇率
determined exchange rate

规避外汇风险的功能
The function of avoiding

规避外汇风险的功能
foreign exchange risk

是通过在外汇市场的交易来实现的
is realized by transaction

是通过在外汇市场的交易来实现的
in the foreign exchange market

外汇市场基本的交易方式包括
The basic transaction methods in the

外汇市场基本的交易方式包括
foreign exchange market include

即期外汇交易
spot exchange

远期外汇交易和掉期交易
forward exchange and swap

即期交易是指
Spot exchange refers to the

货币买卖双方立即进行交易
immediate currency transaction

货币买卖双方立即进行交易
between the buyer and seller

所采用的汇率就是即期汇率
and the exchange rate

所采用的汇率就是即期汇率
is the spot exchange rate

即期交易是随行就市的交易
Spot exchange are transactions

即期交易是随行就市的交易
that follow the market

没有规避风险的作用
and have no function of avoiding risks

远期交易是指双方同意兑换货币
Forward exchange means that both

远期交易是指双方同意兑换货币
parties agree to exchange currency

并在将来某个特定日期执行交易
and execute the transaction

并在将来某个特定日期执行交易
on a specific date in the future

所采用的汇率是远期汇率
And the exchange rate used in this

所采用的汇率是远期汇率
transaction is the forward exchange rate

远期汇率分别以未来
Forward exchange rates

远期汇率分别以未来
are quoted in the following

30天 90天和180天报价
30 days 90 days and 180 days

远期汇率是当前已经确定的
The forward exchange

远期汇率是当前已经确定的
rate is currently determined

因此远期外汇合同可以规避外汇风险
so forward foreign exchange contracts have

因此远期外汇合同可以规避外汇风险
the function of avoiding foreign exchange risks

掉期交易是按两个不同的交割日期
Swap transactions are simultaneous buying

同时买进和卖出相同数量的外币
and selling of the same amount of foreign

同时买进和卖出相同数量的外币
currency on two different delivery dates

通常的掉期是即期对远期的交易
The usual swaps are

通常的掉期是即期对远期的交易
spot-to-forward transactions

比如
For example

中国的A公司
a Chinese company A

向英国的B公司购买原材料
buys raw materials

向英国的B公司购买原材料
from a British company B

预计90天后
and it is expected

预计90天后
to sell the products to

要将产品卖给英国的C公司
a British company C after 90 days

于是A公司
So company A

用即期交易把900万人民币
uses a spot exchange to

用即期交易把900万人民币
transaction 9 million yuan

换回100万英镑
back to 1 million pounds

此时的即期汇率
At this time the

此时的即期汇率
spot exchange rate

是1英镑等于9人民币
is 1 pound equals 9 yuan

同时又做了一个90天的远期交易
and it has made a 90-day forward transaction

用100万英镑换回927万人民币
and 1 million pounds can be

用100万英镑换回927万人民币
exchanged for 927 ten thousand yuan

此时的远期汇率是1英镑等于
the forward exchange rate at

此时的远期汇率是1英镑等于
this time is 1 pound is equal to

9.27人民币
9.27 yuan

A企业在外汇市场上

A企业在外汇市场上
In the foreign exchange

A企业在外汇市场上
market company A

即满足了换英镑购买原材料的需要
has met the needs of buying raw

即满足了换英镑购买原材料的需要
materials in exchange for pounds

又满足了
and it has also met

销售产品后将英镑换回人民币的需要
the need of exchanging pounds

销售产品后将英镑换回人民币的需要
back to yuan after selling products

还锁定了交易价格
and also fix the transaction price

规避了外汇风险
which avoids foreign

规避了外汇风险
exchange risk

外汇市场的两个作用
The two functions of

外汇市场的两个作用
the foreign exchange market

我们可以从交易量的变化来观察
can be seen from the trading volume

2019年4月
In April 2019

全球外汇市场日均交易量达
the average daily trading volume of the global

全球外汇市场日均交易量达
foreign exchange market reached

6.6万亿美元
6.6 trillion US dollars

美元持续保持第一大货币的地位
and the US dollar continued to maintain

美元持续保持第一大货币的地位
its position as the largest currency

占比88.3%
accounting for 88.3%

人民币日均交易量达
The average daily trading

人民币日均交易量达
volume of RMB reached

2841.9亿美元
284.19 billion US dollars

占比4.3%
accounting for 4.3%

外汇掉期是交易量最大的产品
Foreign exchange swaps are the product

外汇掉期是交易量最大的产品
with the largest trading volume

占外汇市场
accounting for

总交易量的48.6%
48.6% of the total trading volume

总交易量的48.6%
in the foreign exchange market

外汇即期在总交易量中的占比为
and foreign exchange spot accounts for

30.2%
30.2% of the total

30.2%
trading volume

以上我们学习了外汇市场的
This the role of currency exchange

以上我们学习了外汇市场的
and avoiding market risk

货币交换和规避市场风险的作用
in the foreign exchange market

汇率的波动
The fluctuation of

汇率的波动
the exchange rate

是由两种货币的供给
is determined by the

是由两种货币的供给
relationship between the supply

和需求关系决定的
and demand of two currencies

影响货币需求和供给的因素众多
Many factors may affect the

影响货币需求和供给的因素众多
demand and supply of a currency

理论上没有一致的观点
There is no agreement about this

不过
However

多数关于汇率变动的经济理论认为
most economic theories on

多数关于汇率变动的经济理论认为
exchange rate changes believe

本国的价格水平
the domestic price level

本国的利率水平
the domestic interest rate level

和外汇市场投资者心理预期
and the investor psychology

和外汇市场投资者心理预期
in the foreign exchange market

等三个因素
three factors

对本国货币汇率的变动有主要影响
have major impacts on the changes in the

对本国货币汇率的变动有主要影响
currency exchange rate of the country

第一个影响因素
The first influencing factor

我们介绍价格水平与汇率变动的关系
the relationship between the price level

我们介绍价格水平与汇率变动的关系
and exchange rate changes

首先要回答一个关于均衡价格的问题
First of all we must answer a question

首先要回答一个关于均衡价格的问题
about equilibrium prices

在没有运输成本
in a freely competitive market

在没有运输成本
without any transportation costs

和贸易壁垒的自由竞争市场
and trade barriers

同一件商品在不同的国家销售
if the same product is sold in different countries

价格用相同的货币表示
suppose the price is

价格用相同的货币表示
converted into the same currency

两国的售价是否相同
will the selling price of in

两国的售价是否相同
different countries be the same

答案一定是相同的
The answer must be the same

否则就会有套利的机会
Otherwise there will be

否则就会有套利的机会
opportunities for arbitrage

直到两个市场价格相同为止
until the two market prices are the same

这就是一价定律
This is the law of one price

按照一价定律的原理
According to the law of one price

比较同一组商品的两种货币的价格
Compare the prices of two currencies

比较同一组商品的两种货币的价格
for the same group of goods

就能得出两种货币间的真实汇率
the real exchange rate between the

就能得出两种货币间的真实汇率
two currencies can be obtained

或称为购买力平价汇率
or purchasing power

或称为购买力平价汇率
parity exchange rate

学术期刊经济学家所公布的
The Big Mac Index published

学术期刊经济学家所公布的
by the academic journal

巨无霸汉堡指数
The Economist

就是利用购买力平价方法
is the exchange rate valuation calculated by

测算的汇率估价方法
using the purchasing

测算的汇率估价方法
power parity method

购买力平价理论认为
Purchasing power

购买力平价理论认为
parity theory believes

相对价格的变化将引起汇率的变化
that changes in relative prices will

相对价格的变化将引起汇率的变化
cause changes in exchange rates

相对价格的变化
Changes in relative prices refer

就是指两个国家不同的通货膨胀率
to the different inflation rates of two countries

货币的供应量增加
The increase in the currency supply

导致货币流通量增加
will lead to an increase in the

导致货币流通量增加
amount of an currency in circulation

当货币供应量增长超出产出的增长值
When the increase in the currency supply

当货币供应量增长超出产出的增长值
exceeds the increase in output

就会引起通货膨胀
it will cause an inflation

政府需要提供社会福利产品
The government needs to provide

政府需要提供社会福利产品
the society with welfare products

提供公共设施和服务
public facilities and services

提高国防能力
and improve national

提高国防能力
defense capabilities

这些工作都需要支出大量的资金
all of which require a lot of funds

资金来源可以是增加税收
Funds can be obtained from increasing taxes

也可以是超额发行货币
or issuing excess currency

但是超额发行货币往往是政府的
Usually issuing excessive currency

但是超额发行货币往往是政府的
will be the government's

首选项
first option

这也直接导致了高的通货膨胀率
which will directly lead to high inflation rates

高通货膨胀率国家的货币
The currency of a country

高通货膨胀率国家的货币
with a high inflation rate

在外汇市场上的币值就会下降
will fall in value on the

在外汇市场上的币值就会下降
foreign exchange market

现实中
In reality

美国的量化宽松政策引起了通货膨胀
the quantitative easing policy of the United

美国的量化宽松政策引起了通货膨胀
States has caused expectations of inflation

and depreciation of the dollar

和美元贬值的预期
and depreciation of the dollar

China's prudent monetary policy has

中国稳健的货币政策
China's prudent monetary policy has

也为人民币汇率在长周期内的稳定
also laid a good foundation

也为人民币汇率在长周期内的稳定
for the long-term stability

打下了良好的基础
of the RMB exchange rate

第二个影响因素是利率对汇率的影响
The second influencing factor is the impact of

第二个影响因素是利率对汇率的影响
interest rates on exchange rates

利率反映出对未来通货膨胀率的预期
The interest rate reflects the expected

利率反映出对未来通货膨胀率的预期
inflation rate in the future

预期通货膨胀率高的国家
countries with high expected inflation rate

其利率也高
have high interest rates

这个关系可以用费雪效应来描述
This relationship can be

这个关系可以用费雪效应来描述
described by the Fisher effect

即名义利率是实际利率与
that is the nominal interest rate is the

即名义利率是实际利率与
sum of the actual interest rate and

预期通货膨胀率之和
the expected inflation rate

汇率可以看成是外国货币的价格
The exchange rate can be regarded as

汇率可以看成是外国货币的价格
the price of a foreign currency

本国通货膨胀率高
If the domestic inflation rate is high

本国货币在外汇市场的价格就会下跌
the price of the domestic currency in the

本国货币在外汇市场的价格就会下跌
foreign exchange market will fall

根据购买力平价理论
According to the

根据购买力平价理论
purchasing power parity theory

将两个国家的汇率与两个国家的利率
the international Fisher effect can be summarized

将两个国家的汇率与两个国家的利率
by comparing the exchange rates of

放在一起比较就总结出国际费雪效应
two countries with the interest rates

放在一起比较就总结出国际费雪效应
of the two countries together

即两个国家的即期汇率
that is the spot exchange

即两个国家的即期汇率
rates of the two countries

应随着两国名义利率的不同
should follow the difference in the nominal

应随着两国名义利率的不同
interest rates of the two countries

按相反的方向做等量的变化
and make equal changes

按相反的方向做等量的变化
in the opposite direction

这种规律
This law

is suitable for explaining long-term changes

适合用于解释长期的变动趋势
is suitable for explaining long-term changes

对短期的汇率变动
but not suitable for

short-term exchange rate changes

这一理论却缺乏解释力
short-term exchange rate changes

第三个影响因素是投资者的心理预期
The third influencing factor is

第三个影响因素是投资者的心理预期
the psychology of investors

它对汇率的短期波动的影响
Its impact on short-term

它对汇率的短期波动的影响
exchange rate fluctuations is

大于长期影响
greater than its

大于长期影响
long-term impact

这种影响我们称为跟风效应
which is called the bandwagon effect

其基本原理是
The basic principle is

一个触发的因素
a triggering factor

比如 投资界名人的大规模投资动向
such as the large-scale investment trends

比如 投资界名人的大规模投资动向
of celebrities in the investment industry

或者是对政府某个政策的解读
or the interpretation of a

或者是对政府某个政策的解读
certain government policy

产生了市场上
has produced the same psychological

投资者相同的市场变化趋势的
expectations of market changes as investors

心理预期
in the market

引起了大量的市场交易者
causing a large number

引起了大量的市场交易者
of markets traders

尤其是大规模的交易商
especially large-scale traders

产生跟风式的同向的外汇市场操作
follow the trend of foreign exchange market

产生跟风式的同向的外汇市场操作
operations in the same direction

导致外汇市场按照预期方向的涨跌
leading to the rise and fall of the foreign exchange

导致外汇市场按照预期方向的涨跌
market in the expected direction

从而实现了投资者的心理预期
thereby realizing the psychological

从而实现了投资者的心理预期
expectations of investors

所以投资者的心理预期
Therefore investors'

所以投资者的心理预期
psychological expectations

will be self-fulfilled through

会随着跟风效应自我实现
will be self-fulfilled through

会随着跟风效应自我实现
the bandwagon effect

这种现象在1992年9月
This phenomenon was particularly

英镑汇率下跌
The pound fell

导致英国退出欧洲汇率机制
which led to Britain’s withdrawal from the

导致英国退出欧洲汇率机制
European exchange rate mechanism

和1997年东南亚金融危机
And the 1997

和1997年东南亚金融危机
Southeast Asian financial crisis

泰国 马来西亚 印度尼西亚的货币
The currency of Thailand

泰国 马来西亚 印度尼西亚的货币
Malaysia and Indonesia

对美元贬值
depreciated against

对美元贬值
the US dollar

达50%到70%的
by 50% to 70% against the US dollar

两起事件中表现特别明显
This was particularly

两起事件中表现特别明显
evident in the two incidents

汇率的波动形成不确定性
The fluctuation of exchange

汇率的波动形成不确定性
rate creates uncertainty

给企业的外汇交易带来风险
and brings risks to the foreign

给企业的外汇交易带来风险
exchange transactions of enterprises

企业是否需要花费资金
Do companies need to spend money on

来预测汇率的变化情况
predict changes in the exchange rate

从而防范外汇风险
and prevent foreign exchange risks

对此有两种不同的观点
There are two different views on this

第一种我们称为有效市场学派
The first one is called

第一种我们称为有效市场学派
the efficient market school

认为用远期汇率作为对

认为用远期汇率作为对
which believes that the use

认为用远期汇率作为对
of forward exchange rates

未来即期汇率的预测值
as a forecast of future

未来即期汇率的预测值
spot exchange rates

能够起到最佳的预测效果
can achieve the best forecasting effect

这种观点是基于外汇市场的价格
This view is based on the assumption

能够反映所有公开信息的假设
that prices in the foreign exchange

能够反映所有公开信息的假设
market can reflect all public information

这一观点
and this view is

得到早期许多实证研究的支持
supported by many early empirical studies

根据这一观点
According to this view

企业没有必要花钱
companies do not

企业没有必要花钱
need to spend money

来预测短期汇率的波动
on predict short-term

来预测短期汇率的波动
exchange rate fluctuations

第二种观点我们称为无效市场学派
The second view is called the inefficient market school

认为远期汇率
which believes that forward

并不是未来即期汇率的最佳观测指标
exchange rates are not the best observable

并不是未来即期汇率的最佳观测指标
indicator of future spot exchange rates

市场价格
and that market prices

并不反映所有可得的市场信息
do not reflect all available market information

企业需要专业性的汇率预测
Enterprises need professional

企业需要专业性的汇率预测
exchange rate forecasts

来取得比远期汇率更准确的预测结果
to obtain more accurate forecast results

来取得比远期汇率更准确的预测结果
than forward exchange rates

市场上存在许多专业预测机构
There are many professional forecasting agencies in the market

也证明了
which also proving

无效市场观点具有很高的支持率
that inefficient market views have a high support rate

但是专业预测的准确性也值得怀疑
but the accuracy of professional

但是专业预测的准确性也值得怀疑
forecasts is also questionable

在无效市场的假设下
Under the assumption

在无效市场的假设下
of the inefficient market

人们希望通过预测汇率
people hope to prevent risks

来防范风险或者获得收益
or gain benefits by

来防范风险或者获得收益
predicting exchange rates

预测的方法
Forecasting methods

有基本分析和技术分析两类
fundamental analysis

有基本分析和技术分析两类
and technical analysis

基本分析是根据经济理论
The fundamental analysis

基本分析是根据经济理论
is based on economic theory

将影响汇率变动的各种因素
incorporating various factors

将影响汇率变动的各种因素
that include exchange rate changes into

纳入复杂的经济模型来预测汇率波动
a complex economic model

纳入复杂的经济模型来预测汇率波动
to predict exchange rate changes

技术分析是采用过去的价格
Technical analysis predicts future prices

by using past price

和交易量来预测未来的价格
by using past price

和交易量来预测未来的价格
and transaction volume data

外汇市场的学习内容
We need to know that

外汇市场的学习内容
foreign exchange market

都是建立在
is based

货币可以自由兑换的前提下的
on the premise that currencies

货币可以自由兑换的前提下的
can be freely convertible

但是这个前提是否成立
We need to have further discussion

我们需要进一步讨论
on whether this

我们需要进一步讨论
premise is true or not

这就形成了货币的可兑换性问题
This poses the issue of currency convertibility

可兑换性是指政府是否允许
Convertibility refers to

可兑换性是指政府是否允许
whether the government allows

用本国货币兑换外国货币
domestic currency to be

用本国货币兑换外国货币
exchanged for foreign currency

可以分成
It can be divided into

自由兑换 对外可兑换 不可兑换

自由兑换 对外可兑换 不可兑换
freely convertible

自由兑换 对外可兑换 不可兑换
foreign convertible and non-convertible

three situations

三种情况
three situations

政府限制货币兑换的目的
The purpose of the government

政府限制货币兑换的目的
to restrict currency exchange

是保留外汇储备
is to retain foreign

是保留外汇储备
exchange reserves

是防止资本外逃的手段
which is a way to prevent capital flight

当货币不可兑换时
When the currency is non-convertible

我们可以采用
we can turn to

countertrade

对等贸易的方式进行交易
countertrade

这在后续的章节中会涉及
which will be covered in subsequent chapters

在外汇市场部分
In this part

我们学习了外汇市场的作用
we have learned about the issues about the

我们学习了外汇市场的作用
role of the foreign exchange market

外汇交易的基本类型
the basic types of foreign

外汇交易的基本类型
exchange transactions

exchange transactions

外汇波动的影响因素
the influencing factors

外汇波动的影响因素
of exchange rate fluctuations

汇率的预测方法
exchange rate forecasting methods

以及货币的可兑换性等问题
and currency convertibility

这部分内容我们就学习到这里
That’ s all for today

感谢大家参加
Thank you